Botafogo 1-0 Chapecoense-sc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Botafogo at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Botafogo vs Chapecoense-sc fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Botafogo and Chapecoense-sc meet at Estádio Nilton Santos in Serie A, Regular Season - 31. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 21:00 UTC.
Current Form
Botafogo's overall Serie A record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Botafogo at Estádio Nilton Santos this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Botafogo are significantly better at Estádio Nilton Santos than their overall form suggests.
Chapecoense-sc have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Chapecoense-sc's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for Botafogo, 0.90 for Chapecoense-sc — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Botafogo register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Chapecoense-sc in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Botafogo, 0 for Chapecoense-sc and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2026, ended 4–1 with Botafogo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Botafogo — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Chapecoense-sc — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Botafogo 72% and Chapecoense-sc 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Botafogo 62% | Chapecoense-sc 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Botafogo 1.93 xG and Chapecoense-sc 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Botafogo attack 0.983 / defence 1.142 | Chapecoense-sc attack 0.792 / defence 1.321. League average goals — home 1.487 / away 1.147. Chapecoense-sc bring a strong defensive rating of 1.321 — this is suppressing Botafogo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 68 Botafogo games / 29 Chapecoense-sc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Botafogo 56% | Draw 26% | Chapecoense-sc 18%. Fair-value odds: Botafogo 1.79 | Draw 3.85 | Chapecoense-sc 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Botafogo (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Botafogo are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Botafogo 80% | Chapecoense-sc 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Botafogo vs Chapecoense-sc | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Estádio Nilton Santos • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Botafogo 56% | Draw 26% | Chapecoense-sc 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 57% | xG Botafogo 1.93 / Chapecoense-sc 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Botafogo attack 0.983 / def 1.142 | Chapecoense-sc attack 0.792 / def 1.321 | league avg home 1.487 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Botafogo (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Botafogo xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Chapecoense-sc xG
57%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Botafogo vs Chapecoense-sc kick off?
Botafogo vs Chapecoense-sc kicked off at 21:00 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What was the final score in Botafogo vs Chapecoense-sc?
Botafogo 1 - 0 Chapecoense-sc.
Where is Botafogo vs Chapecoense-sc being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What competition is Botafogo vs Chapecoense-sc part of?
Botafogo vs Chapecoense-sc is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Botafogo vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our statistical model gives Botafogo a 56% chance of winning, Chapecoense-sc a 18% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Botafogo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Botafogo and Chapecoense-sc will score (BTTS).
Will Botafogo vs Chapecoense-sc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Chapecoense-sc?
Record (1 meetings): Botafogo 1W | Draws 0 | Chapecoense-sc 0W.
What form are Botafogo and Chapecoense-sc in?
Botafogo (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. Chapecoense-sc (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Botafogo's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Chapecoense-sc's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.93. Flip it around — Chapecoense-sc's attack (0.79x) against Botafogo's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 68/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Botafogo Win
56%
1.78
26%
3.87
18%
5.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Botafogo xG
Total xG
2.97
1.04
Chapecoense-sc xG
1.78
56%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
5.56
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
15%
6.90
Win to Nil
20%
5.02
3%
38.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 10.3 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Botafogo vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Botafogo and Chapecoense-sc expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Botafogo and 1.04 for Chapecoense-sc, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Botafogo vs Chapecoense-sc?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 29 outings, Botafogo have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 8W 9D 12L record — D-W-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Chapecoense-sc's form line: 3W 9D 17L from 29 games, 0.62 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-L.
Put side by side, Botafogo are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Chapecoense-sc.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Botafogo have posted 1.29 PPG from 14 outings (4W 6D 4L).
On the road, Chapecoense-sc have gone 1W 3D 10L from 14 away games — 0.43 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Botafogo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Botafogo are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Chapecoense-sc are on 1.03 scored and 2.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Botafogo have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games; Chapecoense-sc in 66%.
Last 29 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Botafogo
Current Season
Chapecoense-sc
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Botafogo and Chapecoense-sc in coming into this match?
Botafogo have gone 8W 9D 12L in their last 29 games (1.14 PPG), while Chapecoense-sc have gone 3W 9D 17L in their last 29 (0.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Botafogo at home or Chapecoense-sc away?
Botafogo's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Botafogo at home: 1.29 PPG; Chapecoense-sc away: 0.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 17 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Botafogo
0
Draws
0
Chapecoense-sc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Chapecoense-sc?
From 2 meetings on record, Botafogo have won 2, Chapecoense-sc have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Botafogo and Chapecoense-sc last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2026, when Botafogo 1-0 Chapecoense-sc.
Who has won more matches between Botafogo and Chapecoense-sc?
Botafogo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Botafogo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Chapecoense-sc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 79% for Botafogo, 57% for Chapecoense-sc — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Botafogo and 50% for Chapecoense-sc. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chapecoense-sc in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Botafogo home games / Chapecoense-sc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Botafogo play Chapecoense-sc?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of Botafogo's games and 57% of Chapecoense-sc's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Botafogo vs Chapecoense-sc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Botafogo's matches and 50% of Chapecoense-sc's.
Do Botafogo and Chapecoense-sc tend to score early?
Botafogo have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Chapecoense-sc in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Botafogo edge out Chapecoense-sc 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Botafogo beat Chapecoense-sc 1-0 at Estádio Nilton Santos, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Botafogo 1.93 xG and Chapecoense-sc 1.04 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Botafogo fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Chapecoense-sc landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Botafogo attack 0.98 / defence 1.14 against Chapecoense-sc attack 0.79 / defence 1.32, drawn from 68/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Botafogo 56% | Draw 26% | Chapecoense-sc 18%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Botafogo 62%, Chapecoense-sc 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Botafogo's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
Chapecoense-sc's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Botafogo arrived the stronger side — 1.14 PPG against 0.62. That form edge translated into the three points. Botafogo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line. Chapecoense-sc (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.