Botafogo 2-1 Bahia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Botafogo at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Botafogo vs Bahia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos plays host to Botafogo versus Bahia in Serie A, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Thursday 2 October 2025 at 01:30 UTC.
Current Form
Botafogo's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L D W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Botafogo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos, Botafogo have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Bahia (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L L D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bahia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bahia's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Botafogo, 1.50 for Bahia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Botafogo lead 2W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2025, ended 0–1 with Bahia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Botafogo half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Bahia half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Botafogo 40% versus Bahia 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Botafogo 37% | Bahia 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Botafogo 1.89 xG and Bahia 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Botafogo attack 1.165 / defence 1.089 | Bahia attack 0.964 / defence 1.187. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.036. Data: 63 Botafogo games / 62 Bahia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Botafogo 56% | Draw 22% | Bahia 22%. Fair-value odds: Botafogo 1.79 | Draw 4.55 | Bahia 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Botafogo (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Botafogo at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Botafogo 40% | Bahia 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Botafogo vs Bahia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos • Kick-off: Thursday 2 Oct 2025, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Botafogo 56% | Draw 22% | Bahia 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 56% | xG Botafogo 1.89 / Bahia 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Botafogo attack 1.165 / def 1.089 | Bahia attack 0.964 / def 1.187 | league avg home 1.364 / away 1.036 • Poisson stance: Botafogo (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Botafogo xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Bahia xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Botafogo vs Bahia kick off?
Botafogo vs Bahia kicked off at 01:30 on Thursday 2 October 2025 at Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos.
What was the final score in Botafogo vs Bahia?
Botafogo 2 - 1 Bahia.
Where is Botafogo vs Bahia being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos.
What competition is Botafogo vs Bahia part of?
Botafogo vs Bahia is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Botafogo vs Bahia?
Our statistical model gives Botafogo a 56% chance of winning, Bahia a 22% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Botafogo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Bahia?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Botafogo and Bahia will score (BTTS).
Will Botafogo vs Bahia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Bahia?
Record (5 meetings): Botafogo 2W | Draws 1 | Bahia 2W.
What form are Botafogo and Bahia in?
Botafogo (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Bahia (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Botafogo's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Bahia's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.89. Flip it around — Bahia's attack (0.96x) against Botafogo's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 63/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Botafogo Win
56%
1.79
22%
4.47
22%
4.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Botafogo xG
Total xG
2.98
1.09
Bahia xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
4.63
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
15%
6.60
Win to Nil
19%
5.30
3%
30.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 10.5 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Botafogo vs Bahia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Botafogo and Bahia expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Botafogo and 1.09 for Bahia, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Botafogo vs Bahia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Botafogo's recent record stands at 34W 17D 11L from 62 games, a 1.92 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Botafogo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bahia, meanwhile, have gone 26W 15D 21L across 62 games — 1.50 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Bahia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Botafogo by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Bahia heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Botafogo have managed 18W 9D 4L from 31 games — 2.03 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bahia's away record stands at 7W 9D 15L across 31 trips, a 0.97 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bahia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Botafogo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Botafogo are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 0.74 conceded per game recently; Bahia are on 1.31 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: Botafogo have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Botafogo
Blended
Bahia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Botafogo and Bahia in coming into this match?
Botafogo have gone 34W 17D 11L in their last 62 games (1.92 PPG), while Bahia have gone 26W 15D 21L in their last 62 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Botafogo at home or Bahia away?
Botafogo's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Botafogo at home: 2.03 PPG; Bahia away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Botafogo or Bahia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Botafogo have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Bahia in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 30 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Botafogo won 3-0 on 27 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Botafogo have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Bahia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Botafogo
1
Draws
3
Bahia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Bahia?
From 7 meetings on record, Botafogo have won 3, Bahia have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Botafogo and Bahia last play each other?
They last met on 30 May 2026, when Bahia 2-1 Botafogo.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Botafogo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Botafogo 45%, Bahia 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Botafogo) and 61% (Bahia).
On the defensive side: Botafogo keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Botafogo home games / Bahia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Botafogo play Bahia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 45% of Botafogo's games and 68% of Bahia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Botafogo vs Bahia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Botafogo's recent games and 61% of Bahia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Botafogo and Bahia tend to score early?
Botafogo have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Bahia in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Botafogo edge out Bahia 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Botafogo beat Bahia 2-1 at Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Botafogo 1.89 xG and Bahia 1.09 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Botafogo attack 1.17 / defence 1.09 against Bahia attack 0.96 / defence 1.19, drawn from 63/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Botafogo 56% | Draw 22% | Bahia 22%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Botafogo 37%, Bahia 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Botafogo's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Bahia's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Botafogo arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.50. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.