Bahia 1-1 Ceara – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bahia at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bahia vs Ceara fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bahia host Ceara at Arena Fonte Nova in Serie A, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 27 October 2021 at 23:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Bahia have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Bahia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bahia at Arena Fonte Nova this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Ceara — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Ceara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ceara away from home this season: 0W 6D 4L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Bahia carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Bahia, 0 for Ceara and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Jun 2021, ended 2–1 with Bahia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Bahia in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Ceara in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 27% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bahia 37% versus Ceara 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bahia 44% | Ceara 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 1.36 xG and Ceara 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 1.103 / defence 1.177 | Ceara attack 0.629 / defence 1.316. League average goals — home 0.937 / away 1.016. Ceara bring a strong defensive rating of 1.316 — this is suppressing Bahia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Bahia games / 27 Ceara games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bahia 50% | Draw 32% | Ceara 19%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 2.00 | Draw 3.12 | Ceara 5.26. Bahia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bahia at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bahia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.11 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bahia 50% | Ceara 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bahia vs Ceara | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Arena Fonte Nova • Kick-off: Wednesday 27 Oct 2021, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bahia 50% | Draw 32% | Ceara 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 41% | xG Bahia 1.36 / Ceara 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Bahia attack 1.103 / def 1.177 | Ceara attack 0.629 / def 1.316 | league avg home 0.937 / away 1.016 • Poisson stance: Bahia (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Bahia xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Ceara xG
41%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bahia vs Ceara kick off?
Bahia vs Ceara kicked off at 23:00 on Wednesday 27 October 2021 at Arena Fonte Nova.
What was the final score in Bahia vs Ceara?
Bahia 1 - 1 Ceara.
Where is Bahia vs Ceara being played?
The match is being played at Arena Fonte Nova.
What competition is Bahia vs Ceara part of?
Bahia vs Ceara is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Bahia vs Ceara?
Our statistical model gives Bahia a 50% chance of winning, Ceara a 19% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Bahia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs Ceara?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Bahia and Ceara will score (BTTS).
Will Bahia vs Ceara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Ceara?
Record (1 meetings): Bahia 1W | Draws 0 | Ceara 0W.
What form are Bahia and Ceara in?
Bahia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. Ceara (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bahia's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Ceara's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. The same calculation in reverse, Ceara's attack versus Bahia's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.0%), 0-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bahia Win
50%
2.02
32%
3.16
19%
5.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Bahia xG
Total xG
2.11
0.75
Ceara xG
2.02
50%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
5.29
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
47%
2.12
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
23%
4.29
5%
20.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 9.1 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.5 | 12.4 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 8.4 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bahia vs Ceara?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Bahia and Ceara expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Bahia and 0.75 for Ceara, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Bahia vs Ceara?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bahia's recent record stands at 8W 7D 12L from 27 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Bahia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ceara, meanwhile, have gone 6W 14D 7L across 27 games — 1.19 PPG, with L-D-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Ceara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bahia on 1.15 PPG, Ceara on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Bahia have managed 5W 3D 5L from 13 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ceara's away record stands at 0W 8D 5L across 13 trips, a 0.62 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.19 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ceara's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bahia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bahia are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Ceara are on 0.93 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Ceara in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bahia
Blended
Ceara
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bahia and Ceara in coming into this match?
Bahia have gone 8W 7D 12L in their last 27 games (1.15 PPG), while Ceara have gone 6W 14D 7L in their last 27 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bahia at home or Ceara away?
Bahia's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bahia at home: 1.38 PPG; Ceara away: 0.62 PPG.
Have Bahia or Ceara been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bahia have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Ceara in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 20 September 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Bahia's record when hosting Ceara specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Bahia
2
Draws
0
Ceara
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Ceara?
From 4 meetings on record, Bahia have won 2, Ceara have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bahia and Ceara last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2025, when Ceara 1-1 Bahia.
Who has won more matches between Bahia and Ceara?
Bahia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bahia see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Ceara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bahia 38%, Ceara 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Bahia) and 31% (Ceara).
On the defensive side: Bahia keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Ceara in 38%; Bahia have failed to score in 38% of games; Ceara in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bahia home games / Ceara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bahia play Ceara?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Bahia's recent matches and 46% of Ceara's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bahia vs Ceara usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Bahia's recent games and 31% of Ceara's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bahia and Ceara tend to score early?
Bahia have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Ceara in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bahia and Ceara share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena Fonte Nova, Regular Season - 23, as Bahia and Ceara drew 1-1 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 1.36 xG and Ceara 0.75 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 1.10 / defence 1.18 against Ceara attack 0.63 / defence 1.32, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bahia 50% | Draw 32% | Ceara 19%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bahia 44%, Ceara 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bahia's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Ceara's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bahia 1.15 PPG, Ceara 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.