Atletico Paranaense 1-1 Fluminense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atletico Paranaense at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atletico Paranaense vs Fluminense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Atletico Paranaense and Fluminense meet at Ligga Arena in Serie A, Regular Season - 36. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 December 2024 at 21:30 UTC.
Current Form
Atletico Paranaense's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Ligga Arena, Atletico Paranaense have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Fluminense (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Fluminense away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Atletico Paranaense, 4 for Fluminense and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2024, ended 0–1 with Fluminense winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Atletico Paranaense goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Fluminense goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atletico Paranaense 52% versus Fluminense 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Atletico Paranaense 38% | Fluminense 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Paranaense 1.20 xG and Fluminense 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Paranaense attack 0.931 / defence 0.961 | Fluminense attack 0.806 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.052. Data: 73 Atletico Paranaense games / 73 Fluminense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atletico Paranaense 44% | Draw 32% | Fluminense 24%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Paranaense 2.27 | Draw 3.12 | Fluminense 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atletico Paranaense are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atletico Paranaense if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.01 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Atletico Paranaense 40% | Fluminense 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Paranaense vs Fluminense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Ligga Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Dec 2024, 21:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Paranaense 44% | Draw 32% | Fluminense 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Atletico Paranaense 1.20 / Fluminense 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Paranaense attack 0.931 / def 0.961 | Fluminense attack 0.806 / def 0.963 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.052 • Poisson stance: Atletico Paranaense (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Atletico Paranaense xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Fluminense xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atletico Paranaense vs Fluminense kick off?
Atletico Paranaense vs Fluminense kicked off at 21:30 on Sunday 1 December 2024 at Ligga Arena.
What was the final score in Atletico Paranaense vs Fluminense?
Atletico Paranaense 1 - 1 Fluminense.
Where is Atletico Paranaense vs Fluminense being played?
The match is being played at Ligga Arena.
What competition is Atletico Paranaense vs Fluminense part of?
Atletico Paranaense vs Fluminense is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Paranaense vs Fluminense?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Paranaense a 44% chance of winning, Fluminense a 24% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Atletico Paranaense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico Paranaense vs Fluminense?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Atletico Paranaense and Fluminense will score (BTTS).
Will Atletico Paranaense vs Fluminense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Paranaense and Fluminense?
Record (7 meetings): Atletico Paranaense 2W | Draws 1 | Fluminense 4W.
What form are Atletico Paranaense and Fluminense in?
Atletico Paranaense (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Fluminense (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-L-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about Atletico Paranaense vs Fluminense?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Atletico Paranaense's attack rating (0.93) and Fluminense's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fluminense's attack (0.81x) against Atletico Paranaense's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.7%), 1-0 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Paranaense Win
44%
2.28
32%
3.10
24%
4.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Atletico Paranaense xG
Total xG
2.01
0.81
Fluminense xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
4.19
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
19%
5.15
7%
13.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 10.9 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 13.0 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.6 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Paranaense vs Fluminense?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Atletico Paranaense and Fluminense expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Atletico Paranaense and 0.81 for Fluminense, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Paranaense vs Fluminense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Atletico Paranaense's recent record stands at 25W 22D 26L from 73 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-D in the last five.
Fluminense, meanwhile, have gone 26W 17D 30L across 73 games — 1.30 PPG, with L-D-L-D-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Atletico Paranaense against 1.30 for Fluminense. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Atletico Paranaense have managed 17W 11D 8L from 36 games — 1.72 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fluminense's away record stands at 7W 5D 24L across 36 trips, a 0.72 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.30 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fluminense's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atletico Paranaense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Atletico Paranaense are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Fluminense are on 1.11 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 73 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Paranaense
Current Season
Fluminense
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atletico Paranaense and Fluminense in coming into this match?
Atletico Paranaense have gone 25W 22D 26L in their last 73 games (1.33 PPG), while Fluminense have gone 26W 17D 30L in their last 73 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atletico Paranaense at home or Fluminense away?
Atletico Paranaense's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atletico Paranaense at home: 1.72 PPG; Fluminense away: 0.72 PPG.
Have Atletico Paranaense or Fluminense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atletico Paranaense have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Fluminense in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since June 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atletico Paranaense won 1-4 on 30 Jun 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atletico Paranaense have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fluminense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Atletico Paranaense
2
Draws
5
Fluminense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Paranaense and Fluminense?
From 9 meetings on record, Atletico Paranaense have won 2, Fluminense have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Atletico Paranaense and Fluminense last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Fluminense 3-2 Atletico Paranaense.
Who has won more matches between Atletico Paranaense and Fluminense?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Atletico Paranaense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Fluminense see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atletico Paranaense 56%, Fluminense 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Atletico Paranaense) and 36% (Fluminense).
On the defensive side: Atletico Paranaense keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Fluminense in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Paranaense home games / Fluminense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atletico Paranaense play Fluminense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Atletico Paranaense's recent matches and 31% of Fluminense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atletico Paranaense vs Fluminense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Atletico Paranaense's recent games and 36% of Fluminense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atletico Paranaense and Fluminense tend to score early?
Atletico Paranaense have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Fluminense in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atletico Paranaense and Fluminense share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Ligga Arena, Regular Season - 36, as Atletico Paranaense and Fluminense drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Paranaense 1.20 xG and Fluminense 0.81 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Paranaense attack 0.93 / defence 0.96 against Fluminense attack 0.81 / defence 0.96, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico Paranaense 44% | Draw 32% | Fluminense 24%, with Atletico Paranaense to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico Paranaense 38%, Fluminense 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atletico Paranaense's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Fluminense's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atletico Paranaense 1.33 PPG, Fluminense 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.