Atletico-MG 1-1 Chapecoense-sc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atletico-MG at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-sc fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Atletico-MG and Chapecoense-sc meet at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto in Serie A, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 22 June 2021 at 00:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico-MG 1.13 xG and Chapecoense-sc 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico-MG attack 0.953 / defence 1.191 | Chapecoense-sc attack 0.867 / defence 1.402. League average goals — home 0.845 / away 0.986. Chapecoense-sc bring a strong defensive rating of 1.402 — this is suppressing Atletico-MG's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Atletico-MG games / 4 Chapecoense-sc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atletico-MG 38% | Draw 30% | Chapecoense-sc 32%. Fair-value odds: Atletico-MG 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | Chapecoense-sc 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atletico-MG at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atletico-MG if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-sc | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto • Kick-off: Tuesday 22 Jun 2021, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico-MG 38% | Draw 30% | Chapecoense-sc 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Atletico-MG 1.13 / Chapecoense-sc 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico-MG attack 0.953 / def 1.191 | Chapecoense-sc attack 0.867 / def 1.402 | league avg home 0.845 / away 0.986 • Poisson stance: Atletico-MG (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Atletico-MG xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Chapecoense-sc xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-sc kick off?
Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-sc kicked off at 00:00 on Tuesday 22 June 2021 at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto.
What was the final score in Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-sc?
Atletico-MG 1 - 1 Chapecoense-sc.
Where is Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-sc being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto.
What competition is Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-sc part of?
Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-sc is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our statistical model gives Atletico-MG a 38% chance of winning, Chapecoense-sc a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Atletico-MG the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Atletico-MG and Chapecoense-sc will score (BTTS).
Will Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-sc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico-MG and Chapecoense-sc?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Atletico-MG and Chapecoense-sc in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Atletico-MG's attack at 0.95x the league average against Chapecoense-sc's defence at 1.40x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Chapecoense-sc's attack (0.87x) against Atletico-MG's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico-MG Win
38%
2.63
30%
3.39
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Atletico-MG xG
Total xG
2.14
1.02
Chapecoense-sc xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
14%
7.27
11%
9.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 11.9 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.4 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Atletico-MG and Chapecoense-sc expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Atletico-MG and 1.02 for Chapecoense-sc, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-sc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico-MG
Pre-Season
Chapecoense-sc
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since June 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 19 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atletico-MG won 0-4 on 2 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atletico-MG have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Chapecoense-sc — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Atletico-MG
3
Draws
0
Chapecoense-sc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico-MG and Chapecoense-sc?
From 4 meetings on record, Atletico-MG have won 1, Chapecoense-sc have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Atletico-MG and Chapecoense-sc last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2026, when Atletico-MG 1-1 Chapecoense-sc.
Who has won more matches between Atletico-MG and Chapecoense-sc?
Atletico-MG have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico-MG home games / Chapecoense-sc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Atletico-MG and Chapecoense-sc share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto, Regular Season - 5, as Atletico-MG and Chapecoense-sc drew 1-1 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico-MG 1.13 xG and Chapecoense-sc 1.02 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico-MG attack 0.95 / defence 1.19 against Chapecoense-sc attack 0.87 / defence 1.40, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico-MG 38% | Draw 30% | Chapecoense-sc 32%, with Atletico-MG to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.