Union St. Gilloise 2-2 Antwerp – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Union St. Gilloise at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Antwerp travel to Stade Joseph Mariën to take on Union St. Gilloise. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 September 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Union St. Gilloise — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Union St. Gilloise have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Union St. Gilloise have posted 7W 0D 3L at Stade Joseph Mariën — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Antwerp stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Antwerp have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Antwerp have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Union St. Gilloise at 1.70 PPG versus Antwerp's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Union St. Gilloise trading profile (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Antwerp trading profile (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union St. Gilloise 68% versus Antwerp 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 66% | Antwerp 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.72 xG and Antwerp 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.377 / defence 0.859 | Antwerp attack 0.880 / defence 0.803. League average goals — home 1.554 / away 1.253. Union St. Gilloise carry an above-average attack strength of 1.377 — their λ of 1.72 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 38 Union St. Gilloise games / 38 Antwerp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 56% | Draw 24% | Antwerp 21%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Antwerp 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Union St. Gilloise (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union St. Gilloise are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Union St. Gilloise 70% | Antwerp 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stade Joseph Mariën • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Sep 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 56% | Draw 24% | Antwerp 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 50% | xG Union St. Gilloise 1.72 / Antwerp 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.377 / def 0.859 | Antwerp attack 0.880 / def 0.803 | league avg home 1.554 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Antwerp xG
50%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 3 September 2023 at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp?
Union St. Gilloise 2 - 2 Antwerp.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 56% chance of winning, Antwerp a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp will score (BTTS).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp in?
Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Antwerp (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Union St. Gilloise's attack at 1.38x the league average against Antwerp's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Antwerp's attack versus Union St. Gilloise's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 2-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
56%
1.80
24%
4.20
21%
4.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
2.67
0.95
Antwerp xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
4.84
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
18%
5.58
Win to Nil
22%
4.65
4%
26.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.9 | 11.3 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 0.95 for Antwerp, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 44 outings, Union St. Gilloise have picked up 2.09 PPG on a 28W 8D 8L record — L-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Antwerp's form line: 27W 9D 8L from 44 games, 2.05 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Antwerp, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union St. Gilloise on 2.09 PPG, Antwerp on 2.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Union St. Gilloise have posted 2.27 PPG from 22 outings (16W 2D 4L).
On the road, Antwerp have gone 10W 6D 6L from 22 away games — 1.64 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.05 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Antwerp's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Antwerp are on 1.75 scored and 0.82 conceded. Union St. Gilloise's scoring rate against Antwerp's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Union St. Gilloise have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Defensively: Antwerp in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Early Season
Antwerp
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 28W 8D 8L in their last 44 games (2.09 PPG), while Antwerp have gone 27W 9D 8L in their last 44 (2.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or Antwerp away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 2.27 PPG; Antwerp away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Union St. Gilloise or Antwerp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Antwerp in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Mar 2025, when Union St. Gilloise won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union St. Gilloise's record when hosting Antwerp specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Union St. Gilloise
3
Draws
1
Antwerp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp?
From 10 meetings on record, Union St. Gilloise have won 6, Antwerp have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Union St. Gilloise 2-1 Antwerp.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 59%, Antwerp 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Union St. Gilloise) and 32% (Antwerp).
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Antwerp in 46%; Antwerp in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / Antwerp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union St. Gilloise play Antwerp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Union St. Gilloise's recent matches and 32% of Antwerp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 68% of Union St. Gilloise's recent games and 32% of Antwerp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp tend to score early?
Union St. Gilloise have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Antwerp in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp finished level at 2-2 at Stade Joseph Mariën, Regular Season - 6, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.72 xG and Antwerp 0.95 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Antwerp outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.38 / defence 0.86 against Antwerp attack 0.88 / defence 0.80, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 56% | Draw 24% | Antwerp 21%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 66%, Antwerp 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Antwerp's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union St. Gilloise 2.09 PPG, Antwerp 2.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Antwerp (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.