Charleroi 1-1 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Charleroi at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Charleroi face St. Truiden.

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Match Analysis

Charleroi host St. Truiden at Stade du Pays de Charleroi in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 6). Kick-off is Sunday 3 September 2023 at 19:15 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Charleroi stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Charleroi's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.

Across their last 10 games, St. Truiden have recorded 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

St. Truiden's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Charleroi at 1.30 PPG versus St. Truiden's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Charleroi have won 2, St. Truiden 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 4 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.2 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 26 Feb 2023, ended Charleroi 1–0 St. Truiden — a Charleroi win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Charleroi in-play tendencies (last 38 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

St. Truiden in-play tendencies (last 38 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 58% versus St. Truiden 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 55% | St. Truiden 42%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Charleroi surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while St. Truiden have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.25 xG and St. Truiden 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.880 / defence 0.965 | St. Truiden attack 0.993 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.556 / away 1.273. Data: built from Charleroi's last 38 games and St. Truiden's last 39.

Result probabilities: Charleroi 37% | Draw 27% | St. Truiden 36%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 2.70 | Draw 3.68 | St. Truiden 2.80. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Charleroi are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charleroi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Charleroi 50% (last 10 home games) | St. Truiden 60% (last 10 away games).

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