Standard Liege 0-1 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Standard Liege at 34%, yet in-form Charleroi provide a compelling counter-argument — this Standard Liege vs Charleroi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Conference League Play-off Group - 7 sees Charleroi travel to Stade Maurice Dufrasne to take on Standard Liege. The game is scheduled for Sunday 4 May 2025, 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Standard Liege — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Standard Liege have posted 2W 4D 4L at Stade Maurice Dufrasne — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charleroi stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Charleroi's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Charleroi are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Standard Liege, 1 for Charleroi and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.6 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2025, ended 0–1 with Charleroi winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Standard Liege in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Charleroi in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Standard Liege 50% versus Charleroi 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Standard Liege 44% | Charleroi 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Standard Liege 1.12 xG and Charleroi 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Standard Liege attack 0.717 / defence 0.884 | Charleroi attack 1.078 / defence 1.058. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.113. Standard Liege's attack strength of 0.717 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 60 Standard Liege games / 60 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Standard Liege 34% | Draw 34% | Charleroi 32%. Fair-value odds: Standard Liege 2.94 | Draw 2.94 | Charleroi 3.12. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.18 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Standard Liege 40% | Charleroi 70%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Standard Liege vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Conference League Play-off Group - 7 | Venue: Stade Maurice Dufrasne • Kick-off: Sunday 4 May 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Standard Liege 34% | Draw 34% | Charleroi 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 46% | xG Standard Liege 1.12 / Charleroi 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Standard Liege attack 0.717 / def 0.884 | Charleroi attack 1.078 / def 1.058 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Standard Liege xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Charleroi xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Standard Liege vs Charleroi kick off?
Standard Liege vs Charleroi kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 4 May 2025 at Stade Maurice Dufrasne.
What was the final score in Standard Liege vs Charleroi?
Standard Liege 0 - 1 Charleroi.
Where is Standard Liege vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Stade Maurice Dufrasne.
What competition is Standard Liege vs Charleroi part of?
Standard Liege vs Charleroi is a Conference League Play-off Group - 7 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Standard Liege vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Standard Liege a 34% chance of winning, Charleroi a 32% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Standard Liege vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Standard Liege and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will Standard Liege vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and Charleroi?
Record (5 meetings): Standard Liege 1W | Draws 3 | Charleroi 1W.
What form are Standard Liege and Charleroi in?
Standard Liege (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-L-D. Charleroi (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Standard Liege's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Charleroi's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. The same calculation in reverse, Charleroi's attack versus Standard Liege's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Standard Liege Win
34%
2.90
34%
2.94
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Standard Liege xG
Total xG
2.18
1.06
Charleroi xG
2.90
34%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
12%
8.38
10%
9.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 12.0 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.4 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Standard Liege vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Standard Liege and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Standard Liege and 1.06 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Standard Liege vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 72 outings, Standard Liege have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 18W 27D 27L record — L-D-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Charleroi's form line: 25W 18D 29L from 72 games, 1.29 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Standard Liege on 1.12 PPG, Charleroi on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Standard Liege have posted 1.47 PPG from 36 outings (13W 14D 9L).
On the road, Charleroi have gone 8W 9D 19L from 36 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Standard Liege come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Standard Liege are averaging 0.99 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.17 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Standard Liege
Current Season
Charleroi
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Standard Liege and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Standard Liege have gone 18W 27D 27L in their last 72 games (1.12 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 25W 18D 29L in their last 72 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Standard Liege at home or Charleroi away?
Standard Liege's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Standard Liege at home: 1.47 PPG; Charleroi away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 23 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Standard Liege's record when hosting Charleroi specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Standard Liege
3
Draws
4
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and Charleroi?
From 10 meetings on record, Standard Liege have won 3, Charleroi have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Standard Liege and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Standard Liege 0-2 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Standard Liege and Charleroi?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Standard Liege see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Standard Liege 42%, Charleroi 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Standard Liege) and 47% (Charleroi).
On the defensive side: Standard Liege keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Standard Liege have failed to score in 36% of games; Charleroi in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Standard Liege home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Standard Liege play Charleroi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Standard Liege's recent matches and 47% of Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Standard Liege vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Standard Liege's recent games and 47% of Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Standard Liege and Charleroi tend to score early?
Standard Liege have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Charleroi defy the odds to beat Standard Liege 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat Standard Liege 0-1 at Stade Maurice Dufrasne, Conference League Play-off Group - 7, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Standard Liege 1.12 xG and Charleroi 1.06 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Standard Liege fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Standard Liege attack 0.72 / defence 0.88 against Charleroi attack 1.08 / defence 1.06, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Standard Liege 34% | Draw 34% | Charleroi 32%, with Standard Liege to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Charleroi win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Standard Liege 44%, Charleroi 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Standard Liege's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Charleroi's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Standard Liege 1.12 PPG, Charleroi 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charleroi win broke the near-deadlock. Standard Liege (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward. Charleroi (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.