St. Truiden 2-1 KV Mechelen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St. Truiden at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as St. Truiden face KV Mechelen.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
St. Truiden welcome KV Mechelen to Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium in Jupiler Pro League (Conference League Play-off Group - 8). Kick-off is Sunday 12 May 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, St. Truiden stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
St. Truiden's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — St. Truiden are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, KV Mechelen have recorded 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
KV Mechelen's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: St. Truiden 1.20 PPG, KV Mechelen 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, St. Truiden have won 2, KV Mechelen 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.5 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 5 Apr 2024, ended St. Truiden 3–2 KV Mechelen — a St. Truiden win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
St. Truiden trading profile (last 70 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
KV Mechelen trading profile (last 70 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 49% versus KV Mechelen 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 44% | KV Mechelen 60%). Note also that KV Mechelen surrender HT leads in 35% of cases while St. Truiden recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.36 xG and KV Mechelen 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 0.974 / defence 0.836 | KV Mechelen attack 1.018 / defence 0.890. League average goals — home 1.572 / away 1.174. Data: built from St. Truiden's last 64 games and KV Mechelen's last 63.
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 45% | Draw 27% | KV Mechelen 28%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 2.21 | Draw 3.66 | KV Mechelen 3.64. St. Truiden hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, St. Truiden are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St. Truiden offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 58% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 53%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: St. Truiden 50% (last 10 home games) | KV Mechelen 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs KV Mechelen | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Conference League Play-off Group - 8 | Venue: Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 45% | Draw 27% | KV Mechelen 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG St. Truiden 1.36 / KV Mechelen 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 0.974 / def 0.836 | KV Mechelen attack 1.018 / def 0.890 | league avg home 1.572 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
1.00
KV Mechelen xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ St. Truiden vs KV Mechelen FAQs
What time does St. Truiden vs KV Mechelen kick off?
St. Truiden vs KV Mechelen kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 12 May 2024 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs KV Mechelen?
St. Truiden 2 - 1 KV Mechelen.
Where is St. Truiden vs KV Mechelen being played?
The match is being played at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What competition is St. Truiden vs KV Mechelen part of?
St. Truiden vs KV Mechelen is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (Conference League Play-off Group - 8) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs KV Mechelen?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 45% chance of winning, KV Mechelen a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs KV Mechelen?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both St. Truiden and KV Mechelen will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will St. Truiden vs KV Mechelen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates St. Truiden's attack at 0.97x the league average against KV Mechelen's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, KV Mechelen's attack versus St. Truiden's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from St. Truiden's last 64 games and KV Mechelen's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
45%
2.21
27%
3.66
28%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
2.36
1.00
KV Mechelen xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
3.64
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
17%
6.01
7%
14.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.8 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ St. Truiden vs KV Mechelen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs KV Mechelen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and KV Mechelen expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.00 for KV Mechelen, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs KV Mechelen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
St. Truiden's recent record stands at 23W 21D 26L from 70 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-D in the last five.
KV Mechelen, meanwhile, have gone 26W 14D 30L across 70 games — 1.31 PPG, with W-L-D-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: St. Truiden on 1.29 PPG, KV Mechelen on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, St. Truiden have managed 15W 8D 11L from their last 34 home games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
KV Mechelen's away record stands at 10W 4D 20L across their last 34 away games, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St. Truiden come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
St. Truiden are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; KV Mechelen are on 1.39 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 70 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Current Season
KV Mechelen
Current Season
St. Truiden (Home) vs KV Mechelen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
St. Truiden
Current Season
KV Mechelen
Current Season
❓ St. Truiden vs KV Mechelen Form FAQs
What form are St. Truiden and KV Mechelen in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 23W 21D 26L in their last 70 games (1.29 PPG), while KV Mechelen have gone 26W 14D 30L in their last 70 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or KV Mechelen away?
St. Truiden's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.56 PPG; KV Mechelen away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from December 2023. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Apr 2026, when St. Truiden won KV Mechelen 1-4 St. Truiden.
St. Truiden's record when hosting KV Mechelen specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
St. Truiden
1
Draws
1
KV Mechelen
Recent Meetings
❓ St. Truiden vs KV Mechelen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and KV Mechelen?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, St. Truiden have won 8, KV Mechelen have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and KV Mechelen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: KV Mechelen 4-3 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between St. Truiden and KV Mechelen?
St. Truiden have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
KV Mechelen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St. Truiden 41%, KV Mechelen 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (St. Truiden) and 59% (KV Mechelen).
On the defensive side: St. Truiden have failed to score in 32% of games; KV Mechelen in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / KV Mechelen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ St. Truiden vs KV Mechelen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in St. Truiden and KV Mechelen matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of St. Truiden's recent matches and 50% of KV Mechelen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are St. Truiden and KV Mechelen matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of St. Truiden's recent games and 59% of KV Mechelen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St. Truiden and KV Mechelen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of St. Truiden's recent matches and 76% of KV Mechelen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as St. Truiden edge out KV Mechelen 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St. Truiden beat KV Mechelen 2-1 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium, Conference League Play-off Group - 8, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.36 xG and KV Mechelen 1.00 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 0.97 / defence 0.84 against KV Mechelen attack 1.02 / defence 0.89, drawn from 64/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 45% | Draw 27% | KV Mechelen 28%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 44%, KV Mechelen 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St. Truiden's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
KV Mechelen's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St. Truiden 1.29 PPG, KV Mechelen 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St. Truiden win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.