St. Truiden 1-1 OH Leuven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St. Truiden at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this St. Truiden vs OH Leuven fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Conference League Play-off Group - 9 as St. Truiden welcome OH Leuven to Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 17 May 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, St. Truiden have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
St. Truiden's home record at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — St. Truiden are significantly better at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, OH Leuven stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
OH Leuven's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (St. Truiden) versus 1.70 (OH Leuven). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, St. Truiden have won 0, OH Leuven 2, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2024, ended 0–1 with OH Leuven winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
St. Truiden in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
OH Leuven in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 50% versus OH Leuven 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 44% | OH Leuven 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.61 xG and OH Leuven 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 0.974 / defence 0.841 | OH Leuven attack 0.898 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.573 / away 1.174. Data: 64 St. Truiden games / 64 OH Leuven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 54% | Draw 25% | OH Leuven 21%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | OH Leuven 4.76. St. Truiden hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.50. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.50 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is St. Truiden at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St. Truiden offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: St. Truiden 50% | OH Leuven 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs OH Leuven | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Conference League Play-off Group - 9 | Venue: Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 17 May 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 54% | Draw 25% | OH Leuven 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 47% | xG St. Truiden 1.61 / OH Leuven 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 0.974 / def 0.841 | OH Leuven attack 0.898 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.573 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
0.89
OH Leuven xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs OH Leuven kick off?
St. Truiden vs OH Leuven kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 17 May 2024 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs OH Leuven?
St. Truiden 1 - 1 OH Leuven.
Where is St. Truiden vs OH Leuven being played?
The match is being played at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What competition is St. Truiden vs OH Leuven part of?
St. Truiden vs OH Leuven is a Conference League Play-off Group - 9 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs OH Leuven?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 54% chance of winning, OH Leuven a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs OH Leuven?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both St. Truiden and OH Leuven will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs OH Leuven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and OH Leuven?
Record (5 meetings): St. Truiden 0W | Draws 3 | OH Leuven 2W.
What form are St. Truiden and OH Leuven in?
St. Truiden (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. OH Leuven (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates St. Truiden's attack at 0.97x the league average against OH Leuven's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, OH Leuven's attack versus St. Truiden's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 2-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
54%
1.84
25%
4.01
21%
4.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
2.50
0.89
OH Leuven xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
4.83
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
20%
4.99
Win to Nil
22%
4.47
4%
24.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 11.8 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs OH Leuven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and OH Leuven expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for St. Truiden and 0.89 for OH Leuven, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs OH Leuven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 72 outings, St. Truiden have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 24W 22D 26L record — L-L-D-D-W across the most recent five.
OH Leuven's form line: 24W 19D 29L from 72 games, 1.26 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: St. Truiden on 1.31 PPG, OH Leuven on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, St. Truiden have posted 1.58 PPG from 36 outings (16W 9D 11L).
On the road, OH Leuven have gone 9W 10D 17L from 36 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St. Truiden come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
St. Truiden are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; OH Leuven are on 1.39 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Current Season
OH Leuven
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and OH Leuven in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 24W 22D 26L in their last 72 games (1.31 PPG), while OH Leuven have gone 24W 19D 29L in their last 72 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or OH Leuven away?
St. Truiden's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.58 PPG; OH Leuven away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between St. Truiden and OH Leuven runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: St. Truiden have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Oct 2023, when OH Leuven won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St. Truiden's record when hosting OH Leuven specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
St. Truiden
4
Draws
3
OH Leuven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and OH Leuven?
From 10 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 3, OH Leuven have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and OH Leuven last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when St. Truiden 1-0 OH Leuven.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
OH Leuven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St. Truiden 44%, OH Leuven 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (St. Truiden) and 56% (OH Leuven).
On the defensive side: St. Truiden have failed to score in 31% of games; OH Leuven in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / OH Leuven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play OH Leuven?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of St. Truiden's recent matches and 58% of OH Leuven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St. Truiden vs OH Leuven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of St. Truiden's recent games and 56% of OH Leuven's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St. Truiden and OH Leuven tend to score early?
St. Truiden have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, OH Leuven in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
St. Truiden and OH Leuven share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium, Conference League Play-off Group - 9, as St. Truiden and OH Leuven drew 1-1 in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.61 xG and OH Leuven 0.89 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 0.97 / defence 0.84 against OH Leuven attack 0.90 / defence 1.05, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 54% | Draw 25% | OH Leuven 21%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 44%, OH Leuven 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St. Truiden's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
OH Leuven's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St. Truiden 1.31 PPG, OH Leuven 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.