St. Truiden vs Kortrijk – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours St. Truiden (63%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as St. Truiden face Kortrijk.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Kortrijk travel to Daio Wasabi Stayen to take on St. Truiden. The game is scheduled for Sunday 20 December 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, St. Truiden have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. St. Truiden have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
St. Truiden's home record at Daio Wasabi Stayen: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Kortrijk — All Games: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Kortrijk have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kortrijk away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
St. Truiden are in the better shape of the two on current Jupiler Pro League data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
St. Truiden hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 10 previous encounters compared to 2 for Kortrijk, with 3 draws in between.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The historical record gives St. Truiden a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
St. Truiden in-play and half-time data (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Kortrijk in-play and half-time data (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 56% versus Kortrijk 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 61% | Kortrijk 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.91 xG and Kortrijk 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 1.073 / defence 0.972 | Kortrijk attack 0.611 / defence 1.166. League average goals — home 1.523 / away 1.386. Data: 35 St. Truiden games / 4 Kortrijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 63% | Draw 22% | Kortrijk 16%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 1.59 | Draw 4.55 | Kortrijk 6.25. The model has a clear lean to St. Truiden (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates St. Truiden as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: St. Truiden 60% | Kortrijk 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs Kortrijk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Daio Wasabi Stayen • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Dec 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 63% | Draw 22% | Kortrijk 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 48% | xG St. Truiden 1.91 / Kortrijk 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 1.073 / def 0.972 | Kortrijk attack 0.611 / def 1.166 | league avg home 1.523 / away 1.386 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Kortrijk xG
48%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs Kortrijk kick off?
St. Truiden vs Kortrijk is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Sunday 20 December 2026 at Daio Wasabi Stayen.
Where is St. Truiden vs Kortrijk being played?
The match is being played at Daio Wasabi Stayen.
What competition is St. Truiden vs Kortrijk part of?
St. Truiden vs Kortrijk is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs Kortrijk?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 63% chance of winning, Kortrijk a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs Kortrijk?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both St. Truiden and Kortrijk will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs Kortrijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Kortrijk?
Record (10 meetings): St. Truiden 5W | Draws 3 | Kortrijk 2W.
What form are St. Truiden and Kortrijk in?
St. Truiden (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. Kortrijk (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from St. Truiden's attack rating (1.07) and Kortrijk's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.91 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kortrijk's attack versus St. Truiden's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.6%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
63%
1.59
22%
4.64
16%
6.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
2.73
0.82
Kortrijk xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.64
22%
Draw
6.43
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
15%
6.73
Win to Nil
28%
3.62
2%
43.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.4 | 10.2 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.8 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.5 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs Kortrijk?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and Kortrijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for St. Truiden and 0.82 for Kortrijk, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs Kortrijk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
St. Truiden's recent record stands at 20W 5D 11L from 36 games, a 1.81 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for St. Truiden, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Kortrijk, meanwhile, have gone 20W 4D 12L across 36 games — 1.78 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Kortrijk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: St. Truiden on 1.81 PPG, Kortrijk on 1.78. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, St. Truiden have managed 11W 2D 4L from 17 games — 2.06 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kortrijk's away record stands at 6W 3D 8L across 17 trips, a 1.24 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.78 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kortrijk's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St. Truiden come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
St. Truiden are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Kortrijk are on 1.58 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Early Season
Kortrijk
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and Kortrijk in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 20W 5D 11L in their last 36 games (1.81 PPG), while Kortrijk have gone 20W 4D 12L in their last 36 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or Kortrijk away?
St. Truiden's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 2.06 PPG; Kortrijk away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Apr 2025, when Kortrijk won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St. Truiden's record when hosting Kortrijk specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
St. Truiden
3
Draws
2
Kortrijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Kortrijk?
From 10 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 5, Kortrijk have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and Kortrijk last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2025, when Kortrijk 2-2 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between St. Truiden and Kortrijk?
St. Truiden have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St. Truiden 47%, Kortrijk 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (St. Truiden) and 47% (Kortrijk).
On the defensive side: St. Truiden keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Kortrijk in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / Kortrijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play Kortrijk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of St. Truiden's recent matches and 47% of Kortrijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St. Truiden vs Kortrijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of St. Truiden's recent games and 47% of Kortrijk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St. Truiden and Kortrijk tend to score early?
St. Truiden have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Kortrijk in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.