SK Beveren 1-3 Lommel United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SK Beveren at 68% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SK Beveren vs Lommel United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SK Beveren host Lommel United at Freethiel Stadion in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 9 October 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SK Beveren stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. SK Beveren have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, SK Beveren have posted 10W 0D 0L at Freethiel Stadion — 3.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Freethiel Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — SK Beveren are significantly better at Freethiel Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Lommel United — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Lommel United have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lommel United's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — SK Beveren at 1.80 PPG versus Lommel United's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, SK Beveren have won 4, Lommel United 2, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2026, ended 2–0 with SK Beveren winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
SK Beveren trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Lommel United trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SK Beveren 49% versus Lommel United 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SK Beveren 62% | Lommel United 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Beveren 1.99 xG and Lommel United 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Beveren attack 1.023 / defence 0.779 | Lommel United attack 0.739 / defence 1.240. League average goals — home 1.568 / away 1.195. Lommel United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.240 — this is suppressing SK Beveren's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. SK Beveren's defence rating of 0.779 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 7 SK Beveren games / 7 Lommel United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SK Beveren 68% | Draw 20% | Lommel United 12%. Fair-value odds: SK Beveren 1.47 | Draw 5.00 | Lommel United 8.33. The model has a clear lean to SK Beveren (68%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SK Beveren as the most likely outcome at 68% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: SK Beveren 20% | Lommel United 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Beveren vs Lommel United | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Freethiel Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 9 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Beveren 68% | Draw 20% | Lommel United 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 43% | xG SK Beveren 1.99 / Lommel United 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: SK Beveren attack 1.023 / def 0.779 | Lommel United attack 0.739 / def 1.240 | league avg home 1.568 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
SK Beveren xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Lommel United xG
43%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SK Beveren vs Lommel United kick off?
SK Beveren vs Lommel United kicked off at 18:45 on Friday 9 October 2026 at Freethiel Stadion.
What was the final score in SK Beveren vs Lommel United?
SK Beveren 1 - 3 Lommel United.
Where is SK Beveren vs Lommel United being played?
The match is being played at Freethiel Stadion.
What competition is SK Beveren vs Lommel United part of?
SK Beveren vs Lommel United is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win SK Beveren vs Lommel United?
Our statistical model gives SK Beveren a 68% chance of winning, Lommel United a 12% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in SK Beveren vs Lommel United?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both SK Beveren and Lommel United will score (BTTS).
Will SK Beveren vs Lommel United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Lommel United?
Record (9 meetings): SK Beveren 4W | Draws 3 | Lommel United 2W.
What form are SK Beveren and Lommel United in?
SK Beveren (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Lommel United (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SK Beveren's attack rating (1.02) and Lommel United's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lommel United's attack versus SK Beveren's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 1-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
68%
1.47
20%
4.99
12%
8.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.6%
Home win
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
SK Beveren xG
Total xG
2.67
0.69
Lommel United xG
1.47
68%
Home win
4.99
20%
Draw
8.38
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
50%
1.99
14%
7.29
Win to Nil
34%
2.92
2%
61.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 9.4 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.6 | 9.4 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.0 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Beveren vs Lommel United?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are SK Beveren and Lommel United expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for SK Beveren and 0.69 for Lommel United, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Beveren vs Lommel United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SK Beveren's recent record stands at 31W 4D 4L from 39 games, a 2.49 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for SK Beveren, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lommel United, meanwhile, have gone 19W 9D 11L across 39 games — 1.69 PPG, with W-W-L-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Lommel United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours SK Beveren by 0.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lommel United heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SK Beveren have managed 18W 1D 0L from 19 games — 2.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lommel United's away record stands at 9W 5D 5L across 19 trips, a 1.68 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SK Beveren are averaging 2.08 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Lommel United are on 1.72 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Beveren
Early Season
Lommel United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SK Beveren and Lommel United in coming into this match?
SK Beveren have gone 31W 4D 4L in their last 39 games (2.49 PPG), while Lommel United have gone 19W 9D 11L in their last 39 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SK Beveren at home or Lommel United away?
SK Beveren's home record (2.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SK Beveren at home: 2.89 PPG; Lommel United away: 1.68 PPG.
Have SK Beveren or Lommel United been keeping clean sheets recently?
SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Lommel United in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SK Beveren and Lommel United runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Challenger Pro League, Jupiler Pro League all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 9 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
SK Beveren's record when hosting Lommel United specifically: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
SK Beveren
3
Draws
3
Lommel United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Lommel United?
From 10 meetings on record, SK Beveren have won 4, Lommel United have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SK Beveren and Lommel United last play each other?
They last met on 9 October 2026, when SK Beveren 1-3 Lommel United.
Who has won more matches between SK Beveren and Lommel United?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SK Beveren see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SK Beveren 37%, Lommel United 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (SK Beveren) and 63% (Lommel United). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 16% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SK Beveren keep a clean sheet in 63% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Beveren home games / Lommel United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SK Beveren play Lommel United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of SK Beveren's recent matches and 63% of Lommel United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SK Beveren vs Lommel United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of SK Beveren's matches and 63% of Lommel United's.
Do SK Beveren and Lommel United tend to score early?
SK Beveren have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Lommel United in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lommel United cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over SK Beveren.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lommel United beat SK Beveren 1-3 at Freethiel Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Beveren 1.99 xG and Lommel United 0.69 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. SK Beveren fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Lommel United outscored their 0.69 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Beveren attack 1.02 / defence 0.78 against Lommel United attack 0.74 / defence 1.24, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SK Beveren 68% | Draw 20% | Lommel United 12%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a Lommel United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Beveren 62%, Lommel United 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SK Beveren's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Lommel United's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 2.49 PPG against 1.69. Form was overturned, with Lommel United winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SK Beveren (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lommel United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.