Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Lommel United at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lommel United host Zulte Waregem at Soevereinstadion in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 November 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Lommel United — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: D L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Lommel United have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lommel United have posted 6W 1D 3L at Soevereinstadion — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Zulte Waregem have recorded 8W 2D 0L from 10 outings — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Zulte Waregem have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Zulte Waregem have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Zulte Waregem — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.60 vs 2.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Lommel United, 1 for Zulte Waregem and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2025, ended 1–0 with Lommel United winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Lommel United in-play tendencies (41 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Zulte Waregem in-play tendencies (41 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lommel United 58% versus Zulte Waregem 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lommel United 56% | Zulte Waregem 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lommel United 1.28 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lommel United attack 0.898 / defence 0.826 | Zulte Waregem attack 0.913 / defence 0.936. League average goals — home 1.523 / away 1.386. Data: 5 Lommel United games / 34 Zulte Waregem games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lommel United 42% | Draw 28% | Zulte Waregem 30%. Fair-value odds: Lommel United 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Zulte Waregem 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Lommel United dominate the H2H record, yet Zulte Waregem are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Lommel United are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Zulte Waregem (2.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lommel United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Lommel United 50% | Zulte Waregem 60%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Soevereinstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Nov 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lommel United 42% | Draw 28% | Zulte Waregem 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Lommel United 1.28 / Zulte Waregem 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Lommel United attack 0.898 / def 0.826 | Zulte Waregem attack 0.913 / def 0.936 | league avg home 1.523 / away 1.386 • Poisson stance: Lommel United (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Lommel United xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Zulte Waregem xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem kick off?
Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem is scheduled to kick off at 19:45 on Saturday 28 November 2026 at Soevereinstadion.
Where is Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem being played?
The match is being played at Soevereinstadion.
What competition is Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem part of?
Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem?
Our statistical model gives Lommel United a 42% chance of winning, Zulte Waregem a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Lommel United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Lommel United and Zulte Waregem will score (BTTS).
Will Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and Zulte Waregem?
Record (6 meetings): Lommel United 3W | Draws 2 | Zulte Waregem 1W.
What form are Lommel United and Zulte Waregem in?
Lommel United (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Zulte Waregem (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lommel United's attack rating (0.90) and Zulte Waregem's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zulte Waregem's attack versus Lommel United's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lommel United Win
42%
2.39
28%
3.58
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Lommel United xG
Total xG
2.33
1.04
Zulte Waregem xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
15%
6.80
8%
11.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 10.2 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.1 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Lommel United and Zulte Waregem expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Lommel United and 1.04 for Zulte Waregem, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lommel United's recent record stands at 21W 9D 11L from 41 games, a 1.76 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Lommel United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Zulte Waregem, meanwhile, have gone 16W 11D 14L across 41 games — 1.44 PPG, with W-D-W-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lommel United on 1.76 PPG, Zulte Waregem on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Lommel United have managed 11W 3D 7L from 21 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zulte Waregem's away record stands at 6W 7D 8L across 21 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lommel United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lommel United are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Zulte Waregem are on 1.54 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lommel United
Early Season
Zulte Waregem
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lommel United and Zulte Waregem in coming into this match?
Lommel United have gone 21W 9D 11L in their last 41 games (1.76 PPG), while Zulte Waregem have gone 16W 11D 14L in their last 41 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lommel United at home or Zulte Waregem away?
Lommel United's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lommel United at home: 1.71 PPG; Zulte Waregem away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lommel United and Zulte Waregem runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Feb 2024, when Lommel United won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lommel United's record when hosting Zulte Waregem specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Lommel United
2
Draws
1
Zulte Waregem
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and Zulte Waregem?
From 6 meetings on record, Lommel United have won 3, Zulte Waregem have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lommel United and Zulte Waregem last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2025, when Zulte Waregem 0-1 Lommel United.
Who has won more matches between Lommel United and Zulte Waregem?
Lommel United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lommel United 57%, Zulte Waregem 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Lommel United) and 57% (Zulte Waregem). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lommel United home games / Zulte Waregem away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lommel United play Zulte Waregem?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Lommel United's games and 67% of Zulte Waregem's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Lommel United's matches and 57% of Zulte Waregem's.
Do Lommel United and Zulte Waregem tend to score early?
Lommel United have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Zulte Waregem in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.