Gent 1-2 Kortrijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Gent (64%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Gent face Kortrijk.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 30 as Gent welcome Kortrijk to Planet Group Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 16 March 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Gent — All Games: 3W 6D 1L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Gent's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Planet Group Arena this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kortrijk stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Kortrijk have posted 0W 2D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game.
On current form, Gent have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Gent: 5 wins from 7 previous clashes against 1 for Kortrijk, with 1 draws across those contests.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Jul 2024, ended 1–0 with Gent winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Gent and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Gent trading profile (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Kortrijk trading profile (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gent 55% versus Kortrijk 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gent 49% | Kortrijk 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gent 2.23 xG and Kortrijk 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gent attack 1.124 / defence 0.971 | Kortrijk attack 0.937 / defence 1.376. League average goals — home 1.442 / away 1.092. Kortrijk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.376 — this is suppressing Gent's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 Gent games / 59 Kortrijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gent 64% | Draw 22% | Kortrijk 14%. Fair-value odds: Gent 1.56 | Draw 4.55 | Kortrijk 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Gent (64%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Gent as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.22 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Gent 50% | Kortrijk 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gent vs Kortrijk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Planet Group Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Mar 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gent 64% | Draw 22% | Kortrijk 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 58% | xG Gent 2.23 / Kortrijk 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Gent attack 1.124 / def 0.971 | Kortrijk attack 0.937 / def 1.376 | league avg home 1.442 / away 1.092 • Poisson stance: Gent (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.23
Gent xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Kortrijk xG
58%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gent vs Kortrijk kick off?
Gent vs Kortrijk kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 16 March 2025 at Planet Group Arena.
What was the final score in Gent vs Kortrijk?
Gent 1 - 2 Kortrijk.
Where is Gent vs Kortrijk being played?
The match is being played at Planet Group Arena.
What competition is Gent vs Kortrijk part of?
Gent vs Kortrijk is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Gent vs Kortrijk?
Our statistical model gives Gent a 64% chance of winning, Kortrijk a 14% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Gent the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gent vs Kortrijk?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Gent and Kortrijk will score (BTTS).
Will Gent vs Kortrijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gent and Kortrijk?
Record (7 meetings): Gent 5W | Draws 1 | Kortrijk 1W.
What form are Gent and Kortrijk in?
Gent (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-D-W. Kortrijk (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Gent's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Kortrijk's defensive record (1.38x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.23. The same calculation in reverse, Kortrijk's attack versus Gent's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Gent Win
64%
1.57
22%
4.46
14%
7.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.23
Gent xG
Total xG
3.22
0.99
Kortrijk xG
1.57
64%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
7.19
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
11%
9.30
Win to Nil
24%
4.24
1%
66.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.9 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gent vs Kortrijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Gent and Kortrijk expected to score?
The model projects 2.23 expected goals for Gent and 0.99 for Kortrijk, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Gent vs Kortrijk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gent come into this having played 67 games, going 29W 23D 15L for 1.64 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-D-W.
On the other side, Kortrijk sit at 0.90 PPG from 67 outings (16W 12D 39L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-W across their last five.
Gent carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.74 PPG clear of Kortrijk — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Gent's home form reads 17W 10D 6L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.85 PPG return.
Away from home, Kortrijk have taken 0.67 points per game from 33 outings (5W 7D 21L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gent come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Gent are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Kortrijk are on 0.90 scored and 1.84 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gent
Current Season
Kortrijk
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gent and Kortrijk in coming into this match?
Gent have gone 29W 23D 15L in their last 67 games (1.64 PPG), while Kortrijk have gone 16W 12D 39L in their last 67 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gent at home or Kortrijk away?
Gent's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gent at home: 1.85 PPG; Kortrijk away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Gent or Kortrijk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gent have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Kortrijk in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Nov 2022, when Gent won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gent's record when hosting Kortrijk specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Gent
1
Draws
2
Kortrijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gent and Kortrijk?
From 8 meetings on record, Gent have won 5, Kortrijk have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gent and Kortrijk last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2025, when Gent 1-2 Kortrijk.
Who has won more matches between Gent and Kortrijk?
Gent have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gent are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gent 67%, Kortrijk 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Gent) and 58% (Kortrijk). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kortrijk in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gent home games / Kortrijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gent play Kortrijk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Gent's recent matches and 42% of Kortrijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gent vs Kortrijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Gent's matches and 58% of Kortrijk's.
Do Gent and Kortrijk tend to score early?
Gent have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Kortrijk in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kortrijk defy the odds to beat Gent 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kortrijk beat Gent 1-2 at Planet Group Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gent 2.23 xG and Kortrijk 0.99 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Gent fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Kortrijk outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gent attack 1.12 / defence 0.97 against Kortrijk attack 0.94 / defence 1.38, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gent 64% | Draw 22% | Kortrijk 14%, with Gent to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a Kortrijk win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gent 49%, Kortrijk 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gent's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Kortrijk's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Gent arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 0.90. Form was overturned, with Kortrijk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Gent (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kortrijk (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.76 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.