Gent 5-0 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gent at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gent vs Charleroi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Charleroi travel to Planet Group Arena to take on Gent. The game is scheduled for Sunday 17 March 2024, 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Gent — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Gent's home record at Planet Group Arena: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Charleroi have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Charleroi have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Gent at 0.90 PPG versus Charleroi's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Gent, 2 for Charleroi and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2023, ended 3–1 with Gent winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Gent in-play tendencies (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Charleroi in-play tendencies (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gent 58% versus Charleroi 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gent 58% | Charleroi 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gent 1.55 xG and Charleroi 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gent attack 1.191 / defence 1.064 | Charleroi attack 0.622 / defence 0.853. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.217. Data: 63 Gent games / 62 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gent 55% | Draw 26% | Charleroi 19%. Fair-value odds: Gent 1.82 | Draw 3.85 | Charleroi 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Gent (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gent are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Gent 80% | Charleroi 20%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gent vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Planet Group Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Mar 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gent 55% | Draw 26% | Charleroi 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 44% | xG Gent 1.55 / Charleroi 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Gent attack 1.191 / def 1.064 | Charleroi attack 0.622 / def 0.853 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Gent (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Gent xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Charleroi xG
44%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gent vs Charleroi kick off?
Gent vs Charleroi kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 17 March 2024 at Planet Group Arena.
What was the final score in Gent vs Charleroi?
Gent 5 - 0 Charleroi.
Where is Gent vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Planet Group Arena.
What competition is Gent vs Charleroi part of?
Gent vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Gent vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Gent a 55% chance of winning, Charleroi a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Gent the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gent vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Gent and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will Gent vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gent and Charleroi?
Record (5 meetings): Gent 2W | Draws 1 | Charleroi 2W.
What form are Gent and Charleroi in?
Gent (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. Charleroi (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Gent's attack rating (1.19) and Charleroi's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Charleroi's attack versus Gent's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.1%), 2-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gent Win
55%
1.82
26%
3.92
19%
5.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Gent xG
Total xG
2.36
0.81
Charleroi xG
1.82
55%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
5.15
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
21%
4.73
Win to Nil
25%
4.07
4%
24.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 11.8 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.2 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gent vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Gent and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Gent and 0.81 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Gent vs Charleroi?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Gent's recent record stands at 29W 18D 15L from 62 games, a 1.69 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-D in the last five.
Charleroi, meanwhile, have gone 21W 14D 27L across 62 games — 1.24 PPG, with L-D-L-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Gent by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Charleroi heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Gent have managed 16W 10D 5L from 31 games — 1.87 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charleroi's away record stands at 8W 8D 15L across 31 trips, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gent come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Gent are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.15 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gent
Current Season
Charleroi
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gent and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Gent have gone 29W 18D 15L in their last 62 games (1.69 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 21W 14D 27L in their last 62 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gent at home or Charleroi away?
Gent's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gent at home: 1.87 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Gent or Charleroi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gent have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Charleroi in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gent and Charleroi runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Gent have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Mar 2024, when Gent won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gent's record when hosting Charleroi specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Gent
2
Draws
3
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gent and Charleroi?
From 10 meetings on record, Gent have won 5, Charleroi have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gent and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Charleroi 2-3 Gent.
Who has won more matches between Gent and Charleroi?
Gent have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gent are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Charleroi see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gent 68%, Charleroi 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Gent) and 45% (Charleroi). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gent keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Charleroi in 36%; Charleroi in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gent home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gent play Charleroi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Gent's games and 45% of Charleroi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gent vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Gent's matches and 45% of Charleroi's.
Do Gent and Charleroi tend to score early?
Gent have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Gent run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Charleroi.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gent beat Charleroi 5-0 at Planet Group Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gent 1.55 xG and Charleroi 0.81 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Gent beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Charleroi landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gent attack 1.19 / defence 1.06 against Charleroi attack 0.62 / defence 0.85, drawn from 63/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gent 55% | Draw 26% | Charleroi 19%, with Gent to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gent 58%, Charleroi 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gent's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Charleroi's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Gent arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.24. That form edge translated into the three points. Gent (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.97 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.