Anderlecht 0-1 Kortrijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Anderlecht (71%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Anderlecht face Kortrijk.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lotto Park plays host to Anderlecht versus Kortrijk in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Saturday 16 March 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Anderlecht (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Anderlecht's home record at Lotto Park: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Kortrijk's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Kortrijk have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Anderlecht. A 1.30 PPG lead over Kortrijk (2.40 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Anderlecht 2W, Kortrijk 0W, 3D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Anderlecht half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Kortrijk half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Anderlecht 60% versus Kortrijk 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Anderlecht 55% | Kortrijk 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Anderlecht 2.24 xG and Kortrijk 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Anderlecht attack 1.186 / defence 0.834 | Kortrijk attack 0.753 / defence 1.226. League average goals — home 1.544 / away 1.221. Kortrijk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.226 — this is suppressing Anderlecht's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 62 Anderlecht games / 63 Kortrijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Anderlecht 71% | Draw 18% | Kortrijk 11%. Fair-value odds: Anderlecht 1.41 | Draw 5.56 | Kortrijk 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Anderlecht (71%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Anderlecht at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.01 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Anderlecht 70% | Kortrijk 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Anderlecht vs Kortrijk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Lotto Park • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Mar 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Anderlecht 71% | Draw 18% | Kortrijk 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 48% | xG Anderlecht 2.24 / Kortrijk 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Anderlecht attack 1.186 / def 0.834 | Kortrijk attack 0.753 / def 1.226 | league avg home 1.544 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Anderlecht (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.24
Anderlecht xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Kortrijk xG
48%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Anderlecht vs Kortrijk kick off?
Anderlecht vs Kortrijk kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 16 March 2024 at Lotto Park.
What was the final score in Anderlecht vs Kortrijk?
Anderlecht 0 - 1 Kortrijk.
Where is Anderlecht vs Kortrijk being played?
The match is being played at Lotto Park.
What competition is Anderlecht vs Kortrijk part of?
Anderlecht vs Kortrijk is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Anderlecht vs Kortrijk?
Our statistical model gives Anderlecht a 71% chance of winning, Kortrijk a 11% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Anderlecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Anderlecht vs Kortrijk?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Anderlecht and Kortrijk will score (BTTS).
Will Anderlecht vs Kortrijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and Kortrijk?
Record (5 meetings): Anderlecht 2W | Draws 3 | Kortrijk 0W.
What form are Anderlecht and Kortrijk in?
Anderlecht (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Kortrijk (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Anderlecht's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Kortrijk's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.24. Flip it around — Kortrijk's attack (0.75x) against Anderlecht's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 62/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 1-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Anderlecht Win
71%
1.41
18%
5.61
11%
8.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.24
Anderlecht xG
Total xG
3.01
0.77
Kortrijk xG
1.41
71%
Home win
5.61
18%
Draw
8.88
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
46%
2.15
11%
9.43
Win to Nil
33%
3.04
1%
83.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 8.5 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.5 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.3 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Anderlecht vs Kortrijk?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Anderlecht and Kortrijk expected to score?
The model projects 2.24 expected goals for Anderlecht and 0.77 for Kortrijk, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Anderlecht vs Kortrijk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 62 outings, Anderlecht have picked up 1.76 PPG on a 31W 16D 15L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Kortrijk's form line: 13W 13D 36L from 62 games, 0.84 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L.
Put side by side, Anderlecht are the form team by 0.92 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kortrijk.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Anderlecht have posted 1.87 PPG from 31 outings (17W 7D 7L).
On the road, Kortrijk have gone 5W 5D 21L from 31 away games — 0.65 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Anderlecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Anderlecht are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Kortrijk are on 0.94 scored and 1.87 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Anderlecht
Current Season
Kortrijk
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Anderlecht and Kortrijk in coming into this match?
Anderlecht have gone 31W 16D 15L in their last 62 games (1.76 PPG), while Kortrijk have gone 13W 13D 36L in their last 62 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Anderlecht at home or Kortrijk away?
Anderlecht's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Anderlecht at home: 1.87 PPG; Kortrijk away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Anderlecht go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Anderlecht won 4-0 on 3 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Anderlecht have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Kortrijk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Anderlecht
3
Draws
1
Kortrijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and Kortrijk?
From 8 meetings on record, Anderlecht have won 4, Kortrijk have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Anderlecht and Kortrijk last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2025, when Kortrijk 0-2 Anderlecht.
Who has won more matches between Anderlecht and Kortrijk?
Anderlecht have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Anderlecht 61%, Kortrijk 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Anderlecht) and 61% (Kortrijk). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kortrijk in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Anderlecht home games / Kortrijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Anderlecht play Kortrijk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Anderlecht's recent matches and 48% of Kortrijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Anderlecht vs Kortrijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Anderlecht's matches and 61% of Kortrijk's.
Do Anderlecht and Kortrijk tend to score early?
Anderlecht have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Kortrijk in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kortrijk defy the odds to beat Anderlecht 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kortrijk beat Anderlecht 0-1 at Lotto Park, Regular Season - 30, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Anderlecht 2.24 xG and Kortrijk 0.77 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Anderlecht fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Anderlecht attack 1.19 / defence 0.83 against Kortrijk attack 0.75 / defence 1.23, drawn from 62/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Anderlecht 71% | Draw 18% | Kortrijk 11%, with Anderlecht to win its most likely call at 71%. Instead the game produced a Kortrijk win, an outcome the model had rated at just 11% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Anderlecht 55%, Kortrijk 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Anderlecht's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Kortrijk's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Anderlecht arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 0.84. Form was overturned, with Kortrijk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Anderlecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward. Kortrijk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.