Charleroi 1-2 Zulte Waregem – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Charleroi (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Charleroi face Zulte Waregem.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade du Pays de Charleroi plays host to Charleroi versus Zulte Waregem in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Saturday 20 September 2025 at 17:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Charleroi have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: L D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Charleroi have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Charleroi have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Zulte Waregem (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Zulte Waregem have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Zulte Waregem's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Charleroi's favour (1.90 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Charleroi have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Zulte Waregem in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Across 4 previous meetings, Charleroi are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 1 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 8 Apr 2023, ended 3–2 with Charleroi winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Charleroi and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Charleroi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Zulte Waregem goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Charleroi 61% and Zulte Waregem 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 47% | Zulte Waregem 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 2.09 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 1.046 / defence 0.994 | Zulte Waregem attack 1.146 / defence 1.383. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.123. Zulte Waregem bring a strong defensive rating of 1.383 — this is suppressing Charleroi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Charleroi games / 7 Zulte Waregem games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 55% | Draw 23% | Zulte Waregem 22%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 1.82 | Draw 4.35 | Zulte Waregem 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Charleroi (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.09 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Charleroi at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.37 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 70% | Zulte Waregem 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Zulte Waregem | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Sep 2025, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 55% | Draw 23% | Zulte Waregem 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 64% | xG Charleroi 2.09 / Zulte Waregem 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 1.046 / def 0.994 | Zulte Waregem attack 1.146 / def 1.383 | league avg home 1.446 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Zulte Waregem xG
64%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs Zulte Waregem kick off?
Charleroi vs Zulte Waregem kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 20 September 2025 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs Zulte Waregem?
Charleroi 1 - 2 Zulte Waregem.
Where is Charleroi vs Zulte Waregem being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Zulte Waregem part of?
Charleroi vs Zulte Waregem is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Zulte Waregem?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 55% chance of winning, Zulte Waregem a 22% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Zulte Waregem?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Charleroi and Zulte Waregem will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs Zulte Waregem have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Zulte Waregem?
Record (4 meetings): Charleroi 3W | Draws 1 | Zulte Waregem 0W.
What form are Charleroi and Zulte Waregem in?
Charleroi (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. Zulte Waregem (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Charleroi's attack at 1.05x the league average against Zulte Waregem's defence at 1.38x — combine the two and it projects 2.09 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Zulte Waregem's attack (1.15x) against Charleroi's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 37/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
55%
1.82
23%
4.34
22%
4.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
2 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
Charleroi xG
Total xG
3.37
1.28
Zulte Waregem xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
4.57
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
12%
8.10
Win to Nil
15%
6.53
3%
37.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 9.2 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Zulte Waregem?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Zulte Waregem expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.28 for Zulte Waregem, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Zulte Waregem?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 36 outings, Charleroi have picked up 1.64 PPG on a 16W 11D 9L record — L-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Charleroi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Zulte Waregem's form line: 20W 7D 9L from 36 games, 1.86 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.64 PPG for Charleroi against 1.86 for Zulte Waregem. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Charleroi have posted 1.88 PPG from 17 outings (9W 5D 3L).
On the road, Zulte Waregem have gone 8W 4D 5L from 17 away games — 1.65 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Charleroi are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Zulte Waregem are on 1.83 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charleroi have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Zulte Waregem in 64%.
Last 36 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Early Season
Zulte Waregem
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and Zulte Waregem in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 16W 11D 9L in their last 36 games (1.64 PPG), while Zulte Waregem have gone 20W 7D 9L in their last 36 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Zulte Waregem away?
Charleroi's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.88 PPG; Zulte Waregem away: 1.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Zulte Waregem go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Charleroi won 3-0 on 10 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charleroi have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Zulte Waregem — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Charleroi
1
Draws
2
Zulte Waregem
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Zulte Waregem?
From 6 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 3, Zulte Waregem have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Zulte Waregem last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Zulte Waregem 1-0 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Zulte Waregem?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 65%, Zulte Waregem 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Charleroi) and 65% (Zulte Waregem). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Zulte Waregem away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play Zulte Waregem?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Charleroi's games and 65% of Zulte Waregem's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Charleroi vs Zulte Waregem usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Charleroi's matches and 65% of Zulte Waregem's.
Do Charleroi and Zulte Waregem tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Zulte Waregem in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Zulte Waregem defy the odds to beat Charleroi 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zulte Waregem beat Charleroi 1-2 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 8, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 2.09 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.28 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Charleroi fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 1.05 / defence 0.99 against Zulte Waregem attack 1.15 / defence 1.38, drawn from 37/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 55% | Draw 23% | Zulte Waregem 22%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Zulte Waregem win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 47%, Zulte Waregem 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.64 PPG, Zulte Waregem 1.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zulte Waregem win broke the near-deadlock. Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.