Charleroi 0-2 OH Leuven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charleroi at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charleroi vs OH Leuven fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade du Pays de Charleroi plays host to Charleroi versus OH Leuven in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Saturday 26 October 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Charleroi have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Charleroi have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stade du Pays de Charleroi — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade du Pays de Charleroi. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
OH Leuven (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for OH Leuven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, OH Leuven have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Charleroi, 1.10 for OH Leuven — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Charleroi, 0 for OH Leuven and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Feb 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Charleroi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
OH Leuven goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 49% versus OH Leuven 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 45% | OH Leuven 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.70 xG and OH Leuven 0.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.899 / defence 0.814 | OH Leuven attack 0.731 / defence 1.194. League average goals — home 1.581 / away 1.022. Data: 41 Charleroi games / 41 OH Leuven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 61% | Draw 29% | OH Leuven 10%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 1.64 | Draw 3.45 | OH Leuven 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Charleroi (61%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Charleroi at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 20% | OH Leuven 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs OH Leuven | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Oct 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 61% | Draw 29% | OH Leuven 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 40% | xG Charleroi 1.70 / OH Leuven 0.61 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.899 / def 0.814 | OH Leuven attack 0.731 / def 1.194 | league avg home 1.581 / away 1.022 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
0.61
OH Leuven xG
40%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs OH Leuven kick off?
Charleroi vs OH Leuven kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs OH Leuven?
Charleroi 0 - 2 OH Leuven.
Where is Charleroi vs OH Leuven being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs OH Leuven part of?
Charleroi vs OH Leuven is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs OH Leuven?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 61% chance of winning, OH Leuven a 10% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs OH Leuven?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Charleroi and OH Leuven will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs OH Leuven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and OH Leuven?
Record (2 meetings): Charleroi 0W | Draws 2 | OH Leuven 0W.
What form are Charleroi and OH Leuven in?
Charleroi (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-L-L. OH Leuven (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Charleroi's attack at 0.90x the league average against OH Leuven's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — OH Leuven's attack (0.73x) against Charleroi's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.61.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (14.4%), 1-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
61%
1.64
29%
3.46
10%
9.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.31
0.61
OH Leuven xG
1.64
61%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
9.92
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
54%
1.84
18%
5.46
Win to Nil
33%
3.01
2%
54.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.9 | 10.3 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.4 | 8.7 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.1 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs OH Leuven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Charleroi and OH Leuven expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Charleroi and 0.61 for OH Leuven, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs OH Leuven?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 47 outings, Charleroi have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 16W 11D 20L record — W-D-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
OH Leuven's form line: 13W 15D 19L from 47 games, 1.15 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-D. The sample for OH Leuven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Charleroi against 1.15 for OH Leuven. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Charleroi have posted 1.70 PPG from 23 outings (11W 6D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.26 PPG overall — Charleroi are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, OH Leuven have gone 3W 9D 11L from 23 away games — 0.78 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charleroi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Charleroi are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; OH Leuven are on 1.13 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Blended
OH Leuven
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and OH Leuven in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 16W 11D 20L in their last 47 games (1.26 PPG), while OH Leuven have gone 13W 15D 19L in their last 47 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or OH Leuven away?
Charleroi's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.70 PPG; OH Leuven away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 19 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charleroi have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against OH Leuven — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Charleroi
5
Draws
3
OH Leuven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and OH Leuven?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 2, OH Leuven have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and OH Leuven last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2026, when Charleroi 1-1 OH Leuven.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and OH Leuven?
OH Leuven have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
OH Leuven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 56%, OH Leuven 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Charleroi) and 48% (OH Leuven).
On the defensive side: Charleroi keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; OH Leuven in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / OH Leuven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play OH Leuven?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Charleroi's recent matches and 52% of OH Leuven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charleroi vs OH Leuven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Charleroi's recent games and 48% of OH Leuven's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and OH Leuven tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, OH Leuven in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
OH Leuven cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Charleroi.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OH Leuven beat Charleroi 0-2 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 12, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.70 xG and OH Leuven 0.61 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Charleroi fell 1.7 short of their projected output. OH Leuven outscored their 0.61 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.90 / defence 0.81 against OH Leuven attack 0.73 / defence 1.19, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 61% | Draw 29% | OH Leuven 10%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a OH Leuven win, an outcome the model had rated at just 10% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 45%, OH Leuven 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
OH Leuven's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.26 PPG, OH Leuven 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the OH Leuven win broke the near-deadlock. Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. OH Leuven (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.