Charleroi 1-0 Kortrijk – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Charleroi at 48% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charleroi vs Kortrijk encounter.

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Analysis

Kortrijk make the trip to Stade du Pays de Charleroi to face Charleroi in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 5). The match kicks off on Sunday 25 August 2024 at 19:15 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Charleroi have collected 2.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

In front of their own supporters, Charleroi have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.20 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Kortrijk's record over their last 10 games: 6W 0D 4L (1.80 PPG). Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

On the road, Kortrijk have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.20 PPG for Charleroi against 1.80 for Kortrijk. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record in our data favours Charleroi, who have won 4 of the 7 H2H matches we hold against Kortrijk — Kortrijk have 1 win, with 2 draws.

The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 11 May 2024, ended Charleroi 3–1 Kortrijk — a Charleroi win.

The head-to-head data gives Charleroi an edge — 4 wins from 7 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.

Trading Data

Charleroi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 40 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 38% of games.

Kortrijk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 40 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 50% versus Kortrijk 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 45% | Kortrijk 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.52 xG and Kortrijk 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.814 / defence 0.901 | Kortrijk attack 0.999 / defence 1.195. League average goals — home 1.567 / away 1.191. Data: built from Charleroi's last 34 games and Kortrijk's last 34.

Result probabilities: Charleroi 48% | Draw 26% | Kortrijk 27%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 2.10 | Draw 3.87 | Kortrijk 3.76. Charleroi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Charleroi as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Charleroi 4 wins from 7 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Charleroi if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Charleroi 30% (last 10 home games) | Kortrijk 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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