Anderlecht 0-2 Genk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Anderlecht at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Anderlecht vs Genk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Anderlecht and Genk meet at Lotto Park in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 17 September 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Anderlecht's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W D W D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Anderlecht have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Anderlecht at Lotto Park this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Genk have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Genk have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Genk's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Anderlecht against 1.60 for Genk. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Anderlecht lead 2W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2024, ended 2–1 with Anderlecht winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Anderlecht half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Genk half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Anderlecht 67% versus Genk 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Anderlecht 59% | Genk 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Anderlecht 1.79 xG and Genk 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Anderlecht attack 0.938 / defence 0.996 | Genk attack 1.392 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 1.584 / away 1.137. Genk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.203 — this is suppressing Anderlecht's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Genk have an above-average attack strength of 1.392 — the away xG of 1.58 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 36 Anderlecht games / 36 Genk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Anderlecht 43% | Draw 23% | Genk 34%. Fair-value odds: Anderlecht 2.33 | Draw 4.35 | Genk 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 1.58) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Anderlecht are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Anderlecht if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.36 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Anderlecht 40% | Genk 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Anderlecht vs Genk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Lotto Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 17 Sep 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Anderlecht 43% | Draw 23% | Genk 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG Anderlecht 1.79 / Genk 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Anderlecht attack 0.938 / def 0.996 | Genk attack 1.392 / def 1.203 | league avg home 1.584 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: Anderlecht (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Anderlecht xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Genk xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Anderlecht vs Genk kick off?
Anderlecht vs Genk kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 17 September 2024 at Lotto Park.
What was the final score in Anderlecht vs Genk?
Anderlecht 0 - 2 Genk.
Where is Anderlecht vs Genk being played?
The match is being played at Lotto Park.
What competition is Anderlecht vs Genk part of?
Anderlecht vs Genk is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Anderlecht vs Genk?
Our statistical model gives Anderlecht a 43% chance of winning, Genk a 34% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Anderlecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Anderlecht vs Genk?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Anderlecht and Genk will score (BTTS).
Will Anderlecht vs Genk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and Genk?
Record (4 meetings): Anderlecht 2W | Draws 1 | Genk 1W.
What form are Anderlecht and Genk in?
Anderlecht (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-D. Genk (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Anderlecht's attack at 0.94x the league average against Genk's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.79 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Genk's attack (1.39x) against Anderlecht's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.58.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Anderlecht Win
43%
2.34
23%
4.28
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Anderlecht xG
Total xG
3.36
1.58
Genk xG
2.34
43%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.98
Clean Sheet
21%
4.84
17%
5.97
Win to Nil
9%
11.33
6%
17.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 9.7 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.7 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.2 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Anderlecht vs Genk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Anderlecht and Genk expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Anderlecht and 1.58 for Genk, a combined total of 3.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Anderlecht vs Genk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Anderlecht come into this having played 46 games, going 25W 14D 7L for 1.93 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-D. It's still early in the season for Anderlecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Genk sit at 1.52 PPG from 46 outings (19W 13D 14L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Genk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Anderlecht carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Genk — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Anderlecht's home form reads 15W 5D 2L across 22 games on their own ground, a 2.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Genk have taken 1.32 points per game from 22 outings (8W 5D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Anderlecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Anderlecht are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Genk are on 1.46 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Anderlecht have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Anderlecht
Early Season
Genk
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Anderlecht and Genk in coming into this match?
Anderlecht have gone 25W 14D 7L in their last 46 games (1.93 PPG), while Genk have gone 19W 13D 14L in their last 46 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Anderlecht at home or Genk away?
Anderlecht's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Anderlecht at home: 2.27 PPG; Genk away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Anderlecht or Genk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Anderlecht have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Genk in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Anderlecht have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Genk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Anderlecht
2
Draws
6
Genk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and Genk?
From 10 meetings on record, Anderlecht have won 2, Genk have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Anderlecht and Genk last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Genk 2-0 Anderlecht.
Who has won more matches between Anderlecht and Genk?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Anderlecht 64%, Genk 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Anderlecht) and 50% (Genk).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Anderlecht home games / Genk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Anderlecht play Genk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Anderlecht's games and 64% of Genk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Anderlecht vs Genk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Anderlecht's recent games and 50% of Genk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Anderlecht and Genk tend to score early?
Anderlecht have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Genk in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Genk cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Anderlecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genk beat Anderlecht 0-2 at Lotto Park, Regular Season - 5, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Anderlecht 1.79 xG and Genk 1.58 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Anderlecht fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Anderlecht attack 0.94 / defence 1.00 against Genk attack 1.39 / defence 1.20, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Anderlecht 43% | Draw 23% | Genk 34%, with Anderlecht to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Genk win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Anderlecht 59%, Genk 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Anderlecht's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Genk's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Anderlecht arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.52. Form was overturned, with Genk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Anderlecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Genk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.