Zulte Waregem 2-1 RAAL La Louvière – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RAAL La Louvière at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zulte Waregem vs RAAL La Louvière fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
RAAL La Louvière make the trip to Elindus Arena to face Zulte Waregem in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Sunday 10 November 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Zulte Waregem (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Elindus Arena, Zulte Waregem have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
RAAL La Louvière have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: L D W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for RAAL La Louvière, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RAAL La Louvière away from home this season: 4W 1D 0L from 5 away games — 2.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.00 PPG for Zulte Waregem against 2.30 for RAAL La Louvière. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Zulte Waregem have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, RAAL La Louvière in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Zulte Waregem — key trading statistics (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
RAAL La Louvière — key trading statistics (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 30% of cases; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zulte Waregem 70% and RAAL La Louvière 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zulte Waregem 70% | RAAL La Louvière 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zulte Waregem 1.21 xG and RAAL La Louvière 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zulte Waregem attack 0.997 / defence 0.958 | RAAL La Louvière attack 0.997 / defence 0.844. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.329. Data: 40 Zulte Waregem games / 10 RAAL La Louvière games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 35% | Draw 27% | RAAL La Louvière 38%. Fair-value odds: Zulte Waregem 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | RAAL La Louvière 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, RAAL La Louvière are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on RAAL La Louvière if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Zulte Waregem 60% | RAAL La Louvière 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zulte Waregem vs RAAL La Louvière | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Elindus Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Nov 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 35% | Draw 27% | RAAL La Louvière 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Zulte Waregem 1.21 / RAAL La Louvière 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Zulte Waregem attack 0.997 / def 0.958 | RAAL La Louvière attack 0.997 / def 0.844 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.329 • Poisson stance: RAAL La Louvière (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Zulte Waregem xG
Expected Goals
1.27
RAAL La Louvière xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zulte Waregem vs RAAL La Louvière kick off?
Zulte Waregem vs RAAL La Louvière kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 10 November 2024 at Elindus Arena.
What was the final score in Zulte Waregem vs RAAL La Louvière?
Zulte Waregem 2 - 1 RAAL La Louvière.
Where is Zulte Waregem vs RAAL La Louvière being played?
The match is being played at Elindus Arena.
What competition is Zulte Waregem vs RAAL La Louvière part of?
Zulte Waregem vs RAAL La Louvière is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Zulte Waregem vs RAAL La Louvière?
Our statistical model gives Zulte Waregem a 35% chance of winning, RAAL La Louvière a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making RAAL La Louvière the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zulte Waregem vs RAAL La Louvière?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Zulte Waregem and RAAL La Louvière will score (BTTS).
Will Zulte Waregem vs RAAL La Louvière have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and RAAL La Louvière?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Zulte Waregem and RAAL La Louvière in?
Zulte Waregem (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. RAAL La Louvière (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Zulte Waregem vs RAAL La Louvière?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Zulte Waregem's attack rating (1.00) and RAAL La Louvière's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — RAAL La Louvière's attack (1.00x) against Zulte Waregem's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 40/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RAAL La Louvière Win
35%
2.87
27%
3.68
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Zulte Waregem xG
Total xG
2.47
1.27
RAAL La Louvière xG
2.87
35%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
10%
10.20
11%
8.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 10.7 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.9 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.8 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zulte Waregem vs RAAL La Louvière?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Zulte Waregem and RAAL La Louvière expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Zulte Waregem and 1.27 for RAAL La Louvière, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Zulte Waregem vs RAAL La Louvière?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Zulte Waregem come into this having played 10 games, going 6W 2D 2L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-L. The sample for Zulte Waregem is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, RAAL La Louvière sit at 2.30 PPG from 10 outings (7W 2D 1L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for RAAL La Louvière is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.00 PPG for Zulte Waregem against 2.30 for RAAL La Louvière. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Zulte Waregem's home form reads 3W 1D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, RAAL La Louvière have taken 2.60 points per game from 5 outings (4W 1D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RAAL La Louvière come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Zulte Waregem are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; RAAL La Louvière are on 1.60 scored and 0.80 conceded. Zulte Waregem's scoring rate against RAAL La Louvière's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Zulte Waregem have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; RAAL La Louvière in 60%.
Last 10 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zulte Waregem
Blended
RAAL La Louvière
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zulte Waregem and RAAL La Louvière in coming into this match?
Zulte Waregem have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 games (2.00 PPG), while RAAL La Louvière have gone 7W 2D 1L in their last 10 (2.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zulte Waregem at home or RAAL La Louvière away?
RAAL La Louvière's away record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zulte Waregem at home: 2.00 PPG; RAAL La Louvière away: 2.60 PPG.
Have Zulte Waregem or RAAL La Louvière been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zulte Waregem have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, RAAL La Louvière in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Challenger Pro League, Jupiler Pro League all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Zulte Waregem have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Zulte Waregem won 4-0 on 26 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zulte Waregem have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against RAAL La Louvière — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Zulte Waregem
3
Draws
0
RAAL La Louvière
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and RAAL La Louvière?
From 6 meetings on record, Zulte Waregem have won 3, RAAL La Louvière have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Zulte Waregem and RAAL La Louvière last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Zulte Waregem 4-0 RAAL La Louvière.
Who has won more matches between Zulte Waregem and RAAL La Louvière?
Zulte Waregem have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
RAAL La Louvière are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for Zulte Waregem, 80% for RAAL La Louvière — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Zulte Waregem and 60% for RAAL La Louvière. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zulte Waregem home games / RAAL La Louvière away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zulte Waregem play RAAL La Louvière?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Zulte Waregem's games and 80% of RAAL La Louvière's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zulte Waregem vs RAAL La Louvière usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Zulte Waregem's matches and 60% of RAAL La Louvière's.
Do Zulte Waregem and RAAL La Louvière tend to score early?
Zulte Waregem have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, RAAL La Louvière in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Zulte Waregem defy the odds to beat RAAL La Louvière 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zulte Waregem beat RAAL La Louvière 2-1 at Elindus Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zulte Waregem 1.21 xG and RAAL La Louvière 1.27 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zulte Waregem attack 1.00 / defence 0.96 against RAAL La Louvière attack 1.00 / defence 0.84, drawn from 40/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zulte Waregem 35% | Draw 27% | RAAL La Louvière 38%, with RAAL La Louvière to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Zulte Waregem win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zulte Waregem 70%, RAAL La Louvière 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
RAAL La Louvière's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zulte Waregem 2.00 PPG, RAAL La Louvière 2.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zulte Waregem win broke the near-deadlock. RAAL La Louvière (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.