KRC Genk II 1-2 Club Brugge II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Club Brugge II at 42% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this KRC Genk II vs Club Brugge II encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Club Brugge II travel to De Leunen to take on KRC Genk II in Challenger Pro League (matchday 11). The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 November 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
KRC Genk II — last 10 games: 3W 0D 7L, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, KRC Genk II have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — KRC Genk II are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Club Brugge II have recorded 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Club Brugge II's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — KRC Genk II at 0.90 PPG versus Club Brugge II's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of KRC Genk II's games and 90% of Club Brugge II's (from KRC Genk II's last 10 home games and Club Brugge II's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Despite the home advantage, Club Brugge II have the better record in our head-to-head data — 4 wins from 4 H2H matches against 0 for KRC Genk II.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 1 Mar 2024, ended KRC Genk II 1–2 Club Brugge II — a Club Brugge II win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Club Brugge II have won 4 of 4 H2H matches, and at 3.2 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
KRC Genk II in-play tendencies (last 40 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Club Brugge II in-play tendencies (last 40 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — KRC Genk II 65% and Club Brugge II 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KRC Genk II 68% | Club Brugge II 60%). Note also that Club Brugge II surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while KRC Genk II recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KRC Genk II 1.22 xG and Club Brugge II 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KRC Genk II attack 0.840 / defence 1.198 | Club Brugge II attack 0.899 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.410 / away 1.342. Data: built from KRC Genk II's last 40 games and Club Brugge II's last 40.
Result probabilities: KRC Genk II 32% | Draw 26% | Club Brugge II 42%. Fair-value odds: KRC Genk II 3.14 | Draw 3.87 | Club Brugge II 2.36. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Club Brugge II are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Club Brugge II 4 wins from 4 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Club Brugge II offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — low conviction — though recent form (KRC Genk II's last 10 home games and Club Brugge II's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches point the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: KRC Genk II 60% (last 10 home games) | Club Brugge II 90% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KRC Genk II vs Club Brugge II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 11 | Venue: De Leunen • Kick-off: Saturday 9 November 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KRC Genk II 32% | Draw 26% | Club Brugge II 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG KRC Genk II 1.22 / Club Brugge II 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: KRC Genk II attack 0.840 / def 1.198 | Club Brugge II attack 0.899 / def 1.028 | league avg home 1.410 / away 1.342 • Poisson stance: Club Brugge II (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
KRC Genk II xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Club Brugge II xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ KRC Genk II vs Club Brugge II FAQs
What time does KRC Genk II vs Club Brugge II kick off?
KRC Genk II vs Club Brugge II kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 9 November 2024 at De Leunen.
What was the final score in KRC Genk II vs Club Brugge II?
KRC Genk II 1 - 2 Club Brugge II.
Where is KRC Genk II vs Club Brugge II being played?
The match is being played at De Leunen.
What competition is KRC Genk II vs Club Brugge II part of?
KRC Genk II vs Club Brugge II is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 11) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win KRC Genk II vs Club Brugge II?
Our statistical model gives KRC Genk II a 32% chance of winning, Club Brugge II a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Club Brugge II the favourite.
Will both teams score in KRC Genk II vs Club Brugge II?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both KRC Genk II and Club Brugge II will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will KRC Genk II vs Club Brugge II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates KRC Genk II's attack at 0.84x the league average against Club Brugge II's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Club Brugge II's attack versus KRC Genk II's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from KRC Genk II's last 40 games and Club Brugge II's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Club Brugge II Win
32%
3.14
26%
3.87
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
KRC Genk II xG
Total xG
2.67
1.45
Club Brugge II xG
3.14
32%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
24%
4.25
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
7%
13.34
13%
7.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 10.1 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.3 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.5 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ KRC Genk II vs Club Brugge II Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for KRC Genk II vs Club Brugge II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are KRC Genk II and Club Brugge II expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for KRC Genk II and 1.45 for Club Brugge II, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for KRC Genk II vs Club Brugge II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
KRC Genk II's recent record stands at 13W 7D 20L from 40 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five.
Club Brugge II, meanwhile, have gone 14W 8D 18L across 40 games — 1.25 PPG, with W-L-W-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: KRC Genk II on 1.15 PPG, Club Brugge II on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, KRC Genk II have managed 8W 3D 9L from their last 20 home games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Club Brugge II's away record stands at 7W 4D 9L across their last 20 away games, a 1.25 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
KRC Genk II are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Club Brugge II are on 1.40 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: KRC Genk II have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KRC Genk II
Blended
Club Brugge II
Blended
KRC Genk II (Home) vs Club Brugge II (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
KRC Genk II
Blended
Club Brugge II
Blended
❓ KRC Genk II vs Club Brugge II Form FAQs
What form are KRC Genk II and Club Brugge II in coming into this match?
KRC Genk II have gone 13W 7D 20L in their last 40 games (1.15 PPG), while Club Brugge II have gone 14W 8D 18L in their last 40 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KRC Genk II at home or Club Brugge II away?
KRC Genk II's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KRC Genk II at home: 1.35 PPG; Club Brugge II away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2022. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 24 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 25 Aug 2023, when Club Brugge II won KRC Genk II 0-3 Club Brugge II.
KRC Genk II's record when hosting Club Brugge II specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
KRC Genk II
2
Draws
6
Club Brugge II
Recent Meetings
❓ KRC Genk II vs Club Brugge II H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between KRC Genk II and Club Brugge II?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, KRC Genk II have won 1, Club Brugge II have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did KRC Genk II and Club Brugge II last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 October 2026: KRC Genk II 0-0 Club Brugge II.
Who has won more matches between KRC Genk II and Club Brugge II?
Club Brugge II have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
KRC Genk II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Club Brugge II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KRC Genk II 60%, Club Brugge II 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for KRC Genk II and 65% for Club Brugge II. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KRC Genk II home games / Club Brugge II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ KRC Genk II vs Club Brugge II Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in KRC Genk II and Club Brugge II matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of KRC Genk II's games and 60% of Club Brugge II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are KRC Genk II and Club Brugge II matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of KRC Genk II's matches and 65% of Club Brugge II's.
Do KRC Genk II and Club Brugge II matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of KRC Genk II's recent matches and 70% of Club Brugge II's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Club Brugge II edge out KRC Genk II 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Club Brugge II beat KRC Genk II 1-2 at De Leunen, Regular Season - 11, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KRC Genk II 1.22 xG and Club Brugge II 1.45 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KRC Genk II attack 0.84 / defence 1.20 against Club Brugge II attack 0.90 / defence 1.03, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KRC Genk II 32% | Draw 26% | Club Brugge II 42%, with Club Brugge II to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KRC Genk II 68%, Club Brugge II 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KRC Genk II's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Club Brugge II's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — KRC Genk II 1.15 PPG, Club Brugge II 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Club Brugge II win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.