Patro Eisden 0-1 Zulte Waregem – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Patro Eisden at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Patro Eisden vs Zulte Waregem fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Patro Eisden and Zulte Waregem meet at Patrostadion in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 20 October 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Patro Eisden have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Patro Eisden have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Patro Eisden at Patrostadion this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Zulte Waregem's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Zulte Waregem have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Zulte Waregem away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Patro Eisden, 2.00 for Zulte Waregem — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Patro Eisden have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Zulte Waregem in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Patro Eisden 0W, Zulte Waregem 1W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Patro Eisden goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Zulte Waregem goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Patro Eisden 49% versus Zulte Waregem 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Patro Eisden 59% | Zulte Waregem 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Patro Eisden 2.08 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Patro Eisden attack 1.460 / defence 0.995 | Zulte Waregem attack 1.340 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.287. Patro Eisden carry an above-average attack strength of 1.460 — their λ of 2.08 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Zulte Waregem have an above-average attack strength of 1.340 — the away xG of 1.72 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 37 Patro Eisden games / 37 Zulte Waregem games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Patro Eisden 46% | Draw 22% | Zulte Waregem 32%. Fair-value odds: Patro Eisden 2.17 | Draw 4.55 | Zulte Waregem 3.12. Patro Eisden hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.79. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.79 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (2.08 / 1.72) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Patro Eisden as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Patro Eisden if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 73% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 72% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Patro Eisden 60% | Zulte Waregem 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Patro Eisden vs Zulte Waregem | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Patrostadion • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Oct 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Patro Eisden 46% | Draw 22% | Zulte Waregem 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 72% | xG Patro Eisden 2.08 / Zulte Waregem 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Patro Eisden attack 1.460 / def 0.995 | Zulte Waregem attack 1.340 / def 1.009 | league avg home 1.412 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: Patro Eisden (46%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Patro Eisden xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Zulte Waregem xG
72%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Patro Eisden vs Zulte Waregem kick off?
Patro Eisden vs Zulte Waregem kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 20 October 2024 at Patrostadion.
What was the final score in Patro Eisden vs Zulte Waregem?
Patro Eisden 0 - 1 Zulte Waregem.
Where is Patro Eisden vs Zulte Waregem being played?
The match is being played at Patrostadion.
What competition is Patro Eisden vs Zulte Waregem part of?
Patro Eisden vs Zulte Waregem is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Patro Eisden vs Zulte Waregem?
Our statistical model gives Patro Eisden a 46% chance of winning, Zulte Waregem a 32% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Patro Eisden the favourite.
Will both teams score in Patro Eisden vs Zulte Waregem?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Patro Eisden and Zulte Waregem will score (BTTS).
Will Patro Eisden vs Zulte Waregem have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Patro Eisden and Zulte Waregem?
Record (2 meetings): Patro Eisden 0W | Draws 1 | Zulte Waregem 1W.
What form are Patro Eisden and Zulte Waregem in?
Patro Eisden (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Zulte Waregem (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Patro Eisden vs Zulte Waregem?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Patro Eisden's attack at 1.46x the league average against Zulte Waregem's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 2.08 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Zulte Waregem's attack (1.34x) against Patro Eisden's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.72.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Patro Eisden Win
46%
2.16
22%
4.62
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Patro Eisden xG
Total xG
3.79
1.72
Zulte Waregem xG
2.16
46%
Home win
4.62
22%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.39
28%
BTTS No
3.58
Clean Sheet
18%
5.56
12%
8.00
Win to Nil
8%
11.99
4%
25.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 8.0 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.3 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Patro Eisden vs Zulte Waregem?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Patro Eisden and Zulte Waregem expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Patro Eisden and 1.72 for Zulte Waregem, a combined total of 3.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Patro Eisden vs Zulte Waregem?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Patro Eisden come into this having played 39 games, going 18W 12D 9L for 1.69 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Patro Eisden, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Zulte Waregem sit at 1.74 PPG from 39 outings (20W 8D 11L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.69 PPG for Patro Eisden against 1.74 for Zulte Waregem. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Patro Eisden's home form reads 10W 4D 5L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.79 PPG return.
Away from home, Zulte Waregem have taken 2.21 points per game from 19 outings (13W 3D 3L). That's actually stronger than their 1.74 PPG overall record — Zulte Waregem travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zulte Waregem come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Patro Eisden are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Zulte Waregem are on 1.69 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Patro Eisden have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Patro Eisden
Early Season
Zulte Waregem
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Patro Eisden and Zulte Waregem in coming into this match?
Patro Eisden have gone 18W 12D 9L in their last 39 games (1.69 PPG), while Zulte Waregem have gone 20W 8D 11L in their last 39 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Patro Eisden at home or Zulte Waregem away?
Zulte Waregem's away record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Patro Eisden at home: 1.79 PPG; Zulte Waregem away: 2.21 PPG.
Have Patro Eisden or Zulte Waregem been keeping clean sheets recently?
Patro Eisden have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Zulte Waregem in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Zulte Waregem have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Zulte Waregem won 0-3 on 12 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Patro Eisden have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Zulte Waregem — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Patro Eisden
1
Draws
3
Zulte Waregem
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Patro Eisden and Zulte Waregem?
From 4 meetings on record, Patro Eisden have won 0, Zulte Waregem have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Patro Eisden and Zulte Waregem last play each other?
They last met on 11 January 2025, when Zulte Waregem 3-2 Patro Eisden.
Who has won more matches between Patro Eisden and Zulte Waregem?
Zulte Waregem have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Patro Eisden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Patro Eisden 58%, Zulte Waregem 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 79% for Patro Eisden and 68% for Zulte Waregem. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zulte Waregem in 32%; Patro Eisden have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Patro Eisden home games / Zulte Waregem away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Patro Eisden play Zulte Waregem?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Patro Eisden's games and 63% of Zulte Waregem's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Patro Eisden vs Zulte Waregem usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 79% of Patro Eisden's matches and 68% of Zulte Waregem's.
Do Patro Eisden and Zulte Waregem tend to score early?
Patro Eisden have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Zulte Waregem in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Zulte Waregem defy the odds to beat Patro Eisden 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zulte Waregem beat Patro Eisden 0-1 at Patrostadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Patro Eisden 2.08 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.72 xG, a combined 3.79. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Patro Eisden fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Patro Eisden attack 1.46 / defence 0.99 against Zulte Waregem attack 1.34 / defence 1.01, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Patro Eisden 46% | Draw 22% | Zulte Waregem 32%, with Patro Eisden to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Zulte Waregem win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 90% and missed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Patro Eisden 59%, Zulte Waregem 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Patro Eisden's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Patro Eisden 1.69 PPG, Zulte Waregem 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zulte Waregem win broke the near-deadlock. Patro Eisden (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.95 scoring average — below par going forward. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.32 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.