Francs Borains 2-2 Liège – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Liège at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Francs Borains face Liège.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Liège travel to Stade Robert Urbain to take on Francs Borains in Challenger Pro League (matchday 28). The game is scheduled for Sunday 7 April 2024 at 19:15 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Francs Borains have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Francs Borains's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Liège — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Liège away from home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Francs Borains 1.40 PPG, Liège 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Francs Borains have won 0, Liège 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 10 Dec 2023, ended Francs Borains 0–1 Liège — a Liège win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Francs Borains in-play tendencies (last 27 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Liège in-play tendencies (last 27 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Francs Borains 52% versus Liège 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Francs Borains 63% | Liège 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Francs Borains 1.44 xG and Liège 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Francs Borains attack 0.912 / defence 1.146 | Liège attack 1.038 / defence 1.187. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.324. Data: built from Francs Borains's last 27 games and Liège's last 27.
Result probabilities: Francs Borains 35% | Draw 24% | Liège 41%. Fair-value odds: Francs Borains 2.86 | Draw 4.14 | Liège 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.44 / 1.57) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Liège are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Liège offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Francs Borains's last 10 home games and Liège's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Francs Borains 50% (last 10 home games) | Liège 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Francs Borains vs Liège | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 28 | Venue: Stade Robert Urbain • Kick-off: Sunday 7 April 2024 at 19:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Francs Borains 35% | Draw 24% | Liège 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Francs Borains 1.44 / Liège 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Francs Borains attack 0.912 / def 1.146 | Liège attack 1.038 / def 1.187 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.324 • Poisson stance: Liège (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Francs Borains xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Liège xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Francs Borains vs Liège FAQs
What time does Francs Borains vs Liège kick off?
Francs Borains vs Liège kicked off at 19:15 UK time on Sunday 7 April 2024 at Stade Robert Urbain.
What was the final score in Francs Borains vs Liège?
Francs Borains 2 - 2 Liège.
Where is Francs Borains vs Liège being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Urbain.
What competition is Francs Borains vs Liège part of?
Francs Borains vs Liège is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 28) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Francs Borains vs Liège?
Our statistical model gives Francs Borains a 35% chance of winning, Liège a 41% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Liège the favourite.
Will both teams score in Francs Borains vs Liège?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Francs Borains and Liège will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Francs Borains vs Liège have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Francs Borains's attack at 0.91x the league average against Liège's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Liège's attack versus Francs Borains's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Francs Borains's last 27 games and Liège's last 27 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Liège Win
35%
2.86
24%
4.14
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Francs Borains xG
Total xG
3.01
1.57
Liège xG
2.86
35%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
21%
4.83
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
7%
13.83
10%
10.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.7 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.1 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.0 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Francs Borains vs Liège Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Francs Borains vs Liège?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Francs Borains and Liège expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Francs Borains and 1.57 for Liège, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Francs Borains vs Liège?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Francs Borains come into this having played 27 games, going 9W 3D 15L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-D.
On the other side, Liège sit at 1.56 PPG from 27 outings (13W 3D 11L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-W across their last five.
Liège carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Francs Borains — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Francs Borains's home form reads 5W 2D 6L across their last 13 home games, a 1.31 PPG return.
Away from home, Liège have taken 1.31 points per game from their last 13 away games (5W 2D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Francs Borains are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Liège are on 1.48 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 27 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Francs Borains
Blended
Liège
Blended
Francs Borains (Home) vs Liège (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Francs Borains
Blended
Liège
Blended
❓ Francs Borains vs Liège Form FAQs
What form are Francs Borains and Liège in coming into this match?
Francs Borains have gone 9W 3D 15L in their last 27 games (1.11 PPG), while Liège have gone 13W 3D 11L in their last 27 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Francs Borains at home or Liège away?
Francs Borains's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Francs Borains at home: 1.31 PPG; Liège away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 7 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from December 2023. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 17 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Francs Borains's record when hosting Liège specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Francs Borains
1
Draws
3
Liège
Recent Meetings
❓ Francs Borains vs Liège H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Francs Borains and Liège?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Francs Borains have won 3, Liège have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Francs Borains and Liège last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 August 2026: Liège 1-2 Francs Borains.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Francs Borains see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Liège are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Francs Borains 46%, Liège 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Francs Borains) and 62% (Liège). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Francs Borains keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Liège in 31%; Francs Borains have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Francs Borains home games / Liège away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Francs Borains vs Liège Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Francs Borains and Liège matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Francs Borains's recent matches and 54% of Liège's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Francs Borains and Liège matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Francs Borains's matches and 62% of Liège's.
Do Francs Borains and Liège matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 54% of Francs Borains's recent matches and 69% of Liège's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Francs Borains and Liège share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Robert Urbain, Regular Season - 28, as Francs Borains and Liège drew 2-2 in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Francs Borains 1.44 xG and Liège 1.57 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Francs Borains attack 0.91 / defence 1.15 against Liège attack 1.04 / defence 1.19, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Francs Borains 35% | Draw 24% | Liège 41%, with Liège to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Francs Borains 63%, Liège 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Francs Borains's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Liège's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Liège arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.