Francs Borains vs Beerschot VA – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Francs Borains at 42%, yet in-form Beerschot VA provide a compelling counter-argument — this Francs Borains vs Beerschot VA fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Francs Borains and Beerschot VA meet at Stade Robert Urbain in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 30 January 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Francs Borains (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Francs Borains, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Francs Borains's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Stade Robert Urbain this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Beerschot VA's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 8W 0D 2L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Beerschot VA, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beerschot VA's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Beerschot VA are 0.80 PPG clear of Francs Borains in recent Challenger Pro League fixtures (2.40 vs 1.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Across the last 5 meetings, Beerschot VA have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to Francs Borains's 0, with 0 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.4 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2026, ended 0–3 with Beerschot VA winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Beerschot VA have won 5 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Francs Borains — key trading statistics (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 21% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Beerschot VA — key trading statistics (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Francs Borains 32% versus Beerschot VA 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Francs Borains 45% | Beerschot VA 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Francs Borains 1.26 xG and Beerschot VA 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Francs Borains attack 0.971 / defence 0.789 | Beerschot VA attack 0.966 / defence 0.783. League average goals — home 1.654 / away 1.299. Beerschot VA's defence strength of 0.783 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Francs Borains's defence rating of 0.789 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Francs Borains games / 41 Beerschot VA games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Francs Borains 42% | Draw 28% | Beerschot VA 29%. Fair-value odds: Francs Borains 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Beerschot VA 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Francs Borains as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Beerschot VA (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Francs Borains if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Francs Borains 30% | Beerschot VA 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Francs Borains vs Beerschot VA | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stade Robert Urbain • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jan 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Francs Borains 42% | Draw 28% | Beerschot VA 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Francs Borains 1.26 / Beerschot VA 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Francs Borains attack 0.971 / def 0.789 | Beerschot VA attack 0.966 / def 0.783 | league avg home 1.654 / away 1.299 • Poisson stance: Francs Borains (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Francs Borains xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Beerschot VA xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Francs Borains vs Beerschot VA kick off?
Francs Borains vs Beerschot VA is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Saturday 30 January 2027 at Stade Robert Urbain.
Where is Francs Borains vs Beerschot VA being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Urbain.
What competition is Francs Borains vs Beerschot VA part of?
Francs Borains vs Beerschot VA is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Francs Borains vs Beerschot VA?
Our statistical model gives Francs Borains a 42% chance of winning, Beerschot VA a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Francs Borains the favourite.
Will both teams score in Francs Borains vs Beerschot VA?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Francs Borains and Beerschot VA will score (BTTS).
Will Francs Borains vs Beerschot VA have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Francs Borains and Beerschot VA?
Record (5 meetings): Francs Borains 0W | Draws 0 | Beerschot VA 5W.
What form are Francs Borains and Beerschot VA in?
Francs Borains (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Beerschot VA (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Francs Borains's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Beerschot VA's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. Flip it around — Beerschot VA's attack (0.97x) against Francs Borains's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 40/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Francs Borains Win
42%
2.36
28%
3.52
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Francs Borains xG
Total xG
2.25
0.99
Beerschot VA xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
16%
6.35
8%
12.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 10.5 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.2 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Francs Borains vs Beerschot VA?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Francs Borains and Beerschot VA expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Francs Borains and 0.99 for Beerschot VA, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Francs Borains vs Beerschot VA?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Francs Borains's recent record stands at 14W 8D 18L from 40 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Francs Borains is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beerschot VA, meanwhile, have gone 25W 6D 9L across 40 games — 2.02 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Beerschot VA is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Beerschot VA by 0.77 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Francs Borains heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Francs Borains have managed 8W 5D 6L from 19 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Beerschot VA's away record stands at 11W 3D 5L across 19 trips, a 1.89 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Francs Borains are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Beerschot VA are on 1.85 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Beerschot VA in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Francs Borains
Blended
Beerschot VA
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Francs Borains and Beerschot VA in coming into this match?
Francs Borains have gone 14W 8D 18L in their last 40 games (1.25 PPG), while Beerschot VA have gone 25W 6D 9L in their last 40 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Francs Borains at home or Beerschot VA away?
Beerschot VA's away record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Francs Borains at home: 1.53 PPG; Beerschot VA away: 1.89 PPG.
Have Francs Borains or Beerschot VA been keeping clean sheets recently?
Francs Borains have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Beerschot VA in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 31 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Beerschot VA have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Beerschot VA won 4-1 on 20 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Francs Borains have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Beerschot VA — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Francs Borains
0
Draws
5
Beerschot VA
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Francs Borains and Beerschot VA?
From 5 meetings on record, Francs Borains have won 0, Beerschot VA have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Francs Borains and Beerschot VA last play each other?
They last met on 31 October 2026, when Beerschot VA 3-0 Francs Borains.
Who has won more matches between Francs Borains and Beerschot VA?
Beerschot VA have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Francs Borains see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Beerschot VA are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 21% (Francs Borains) and 47% (Beerschot VA) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Francs Borains) and 47% (Beerschot VA).
On the defensive side: Francs Borains keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Beerschot VA in 42%; Francs Borains have failed to score in 47% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Francs Borains home games / Beerschot VA away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Francs Borains play Beerschot VA?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 21% of Francs Borains's recent matches and 47% of Beerschot VA's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Francs Borains vs Beerschot VA usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Francs Borains's recent games and 47% of Beerschot VA's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Francs Borains and Beerschot VA tend to score early?
Francs Borains have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Beerschot VA in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.