Wolfsberger AC 0-2 FC BW Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wolfsberger AC at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wolfsberger AC vs FC BW Linz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Relegation Round - 7 sees FC BW Linz travel to Lavanttal Arena to take on Wolfsberger AC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 April 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wolfsberger AC stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Wolfsberger AC's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Lavanttal Arena this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
FC BW Linz — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, FC BW Linz have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
On current form, Wolfsberger AC have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Wolfsberger AC, 0 for FC BW Linz and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Wolfsberger AC trading profile (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
FC BW Linz trading profile (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wolfsberger AC 50% versus FC BW Linz 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wolfsberger AC 46% | FC BW Linz 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolfsberger AC 1.86 xG and FC BW Linz 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.089 / defence 1.067 | FC BW Linz attack 0.734 / defence 1.278. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.013. FC BW Linz bring a strong defensive rating of 1.278 — this is suppressing Wolfsberger AC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Wolfsberger AC games / 22 FC BW Linz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 62% | Draw 24% | FC BW Linz 14%. Fair-value odds: Wolfsberger AC 1.61 | Draw 4.17 | FC BW Linz 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Wolfsberger AC (62%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wolfsberger AC at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wolfsberger AC 50% | FC BW Linz 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolfsberger AC vs FC BW Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 7 | Venue: Lavanttal Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Apr 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 62% | Draw 24% | FC BW Linz 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 47% | xG Wolfsberger AC 1.86 / FC BW Linz 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.089 / def 1.067 | FC BW Linz attack 0.734 / def 1.278 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Wolfsberger AC (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Wolfsberger AC xG
Expected Goals
0.79
FC BW Linz xG
47%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wolfsberger AC vs FC BW Linz kick off?
Wolfsberger AC vs FC BW Linz kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 27 April 2024 at Lavanttal Arena.
What was the final score in Wolfsberger AC vs FC BW Linz?
Wolfsberger AC 0 - 2 FC BW Linz.
Where is Wolfsberger AC vs FC BW Linz being played?
The match is being played at Lavanttal Arena.
What competition is Wolfsberger AC vs FC BW Linz part of?
Wolfsberger AC vs FC BW Linz is a Relegation Round - 7 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Wolfsberger AC vs FC BW Linz?
Our statistical model gives Wolfsberger AC a 62% chance of winning, FC BW Linz a 14% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Wolfsberger AC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wolfsberger AC vs FC BW Linz?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Wolfsberger AC and FC BW Linz will score (BTTS).
Will Wolfsberger AC vs FC BW Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and FC BW Linz?
Record (1 meetings): Wolfsberger AC 0W | Draws 1 | FC BW Linz 0W.
What form are Wolfsberger AC and FC BW Linz in?
Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-L-D-W. FC BW Linz (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Wolfsberger AC's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against FC BW Linz's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.86. The same calculation in reverse, FC BW Linz's attack versus Wolfsberger AC's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.7%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolfsberger AC Win
62%
1.62
24%
4.15
14%
7.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Wolfsberger AC xG
Total xG
2.66
0.79
FC BW Linz xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
7.01
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
15%
6.46
Win to Nil
28%
3.59
2%
45.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 10.4 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 9.7 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.6 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wolfsberger AC vs FC BW Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Wolfsberger AC and FC BW Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Wolfsberger AC and 0.79 for FC BW Linz, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Wolfsberger AC vs FC BW Linz?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Wolfsberger AC come into this having played 28 games, going 9W 10D 9L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-W.
On the other side, FC BW Linz sit at 0.93 PPG from 28 outings (5W 11D 12L), a run that reads D-D-L-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wolfsberger AC on 1.32 PPG, FC BW Linz on 0.93. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Wolfsberger AC's home form reads 5W 4D 5L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, FC BW Linz have taken 0.64 points per game from 14 outings (2W 3D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wolfsberger AC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Wolfsberger AC are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; FC BW Linz are on 0.96 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 28 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wolfsberger AC
Current Season
FC BW Linz
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wolfsberger AC and FC BW Linz in coming into this match?
Wolfsberger AC have gone 9W 10D 9L in their last 28 games (1.32 PPG), while FC BW Linz have gone 5W 11D 12L in their last 28 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wolfsberger AC at home or FC BW Linz away?
Wolfsberger AC's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wolfsberger AC at home: 1.36 PPG; FC BW Linz away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wolfsberger AC and FC BW Linz runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 21 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Aug 2025, when Wolfsberger AC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Wolfsberger AC's record when hosting FC BW Linz specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Wolfsberger AC
2
Draws
4
FC BW Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and FC BW Linz?
From 10 meetings on record, Wolfsberger AC have won 4, FC BW Linz have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Wolfsberger AC and FC BW Linz last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2026, when FC BW Linz 3-0 Wolfsberger AC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
FC BW Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wolfsberger AC 57%, FC BW Linz 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Wolfsberger AC) and 50% (FC BW Linz).
On the defensive side: Wolfsberger AC have failed to score in 29% of games; FC BW Linz in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wolfsberger AC home games / FC BW Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wolfsberger AC play FC BW Linz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Wolfsberger AC's recent matches and 50% of FC BW Linz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wolfsberger AC vs FC BW Linz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Wolfsberger AC's recent games and 50% of FC BW Linz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wolfsberger AC and FC BW Linz tend to score early?
Wolfsberger AC have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, FC BW Linz in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC BW Linz cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Wolfsberger AC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC BW Linz beat Wolfsberger AC 0-2 at Lavanttal Arena, Relegation Round - 7, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolfsberger AC 1.86 xG and FC BW Linz 0.79 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Wolfsberger AC fell 1.9 short of their projected output. FC BW Linz outscored their 0.79 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolfsberger AC attack 1.09 / defence 1.07 against FC BW Linz attack 0.73 / defence 1.28, drawn from 44/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wolfsberger AC 62% | Draw 24% | FC BW Linz 14%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a FC BW Linz win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolfsberger AC 46%, FC BW Linz 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC BW Linz's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wolfsberger AC 1.32 PPG, FC BW Linz 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC BW Linz win broke the near-deadlock. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC BW Linz (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.