TSV Hartberg 0-1 Rapid Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rapid Vienna at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 5 as TSV Hartberg welcome Rapid Vienna to Stadion Hartberg. Kick-off is set for Sunday 31 August 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
TSV Hartberg — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. TSV Hartberg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, TSV Hartberg have posted 3W 3D 4L at Stadion Hartberg — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Hartberg this season.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Rapid Vienna have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Rapid Vienna have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rapid Vienna's away record: 3W 0D 7L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (TSV Hartberg) versus 1.90 (Rapid Vienna). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for TSV Hartberg, 2 for Rapid Vienna and 0 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2025, ended 2–1 with TSV Hartberg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
TSV Hartberg in-play tendencies (37 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Rapid Vienna in-play tendencies (37 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 57% versus Rapid Vienna 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 49% | Rapid Vienna 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.18 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.944 / defence 1.062 | Rapid Vienna attack 1.085 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.442. Data: 26 TSV Hartberg games / 26 Rapid Vienna games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 26% | Draw 27% | Rapid Vienna 47%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 3.85 | Draw 3.70 | Rapid Vienna 2.13. Rapid Vienna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rapid Vienna are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rapid Vienna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: TSV Hartberg 70% | Rapid Vienna 90% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (26 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadion Hartberg • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Aug 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 26% | Draw 27% | Rapid Vienna 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG TSV Hartberg 1.18 / Rapid Vienna 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.944 / def 1.062 | Rapid Vienna attack 1.085 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.362 / away 1.442 • Poisson stance: Rapid Vienna (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Rapid Vienna xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 31 August 2025 at Stadion Hartberg.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna?
TSV Hartberg 0 - 1 Rapid Vienna.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Hartberg.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 26% chance of winning, Rapid Vienna a 47% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Rapid Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna?
Record (6 meetings): TSV Hartberg 4W | Draws 0 | Rapid Vienna 2W.
What form are TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Rapid Vienna (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
TSV Hartberg's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Rapid Vienna's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. The same calculation in reverse, Rapid Vienna's attack versus TSV Hartberg's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (26/26 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rapid Vienna Win
26%
3.88
27%
3.70
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.84
1.66
Rapid Vienna xG
3.88
26%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
19%
5.27
31%
3.25
Win to Nil
5%
20.47
15%
6.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 9.7 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.4 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.7 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.66 for Rapid Vienna, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
TSV Hartberg come into this having played 37 games, going 13W 11D 13L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Rapid Vienna sit at 1.46 PPG from 37 outings (15W 9D 13L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: TSV Hartberg on 1.35 PPG, Rapid Vienna on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
TSV Hartberg's home form reads 6W 5D 6L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Rapid Vienna have taken 1.00 points per game from 17 outings (4W 5D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.46 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rapid Vienna's season.
The Goals Picture
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Rapid Vienna are on 1.38 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Early Season
Rapid Vienna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 13W 11D 13L in their last 37 games (1.35 PPG), while Rapid Vienna have gone 15W 9D 13L in their last 37 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Rapid Vienna away?
TSV Hartberg's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.35 PPG; Rapid Vienna away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Mar 2024, when Rapid Vienna won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
TSV Hartberg's record when hosting Rapid Vienna specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
TSV Hartberg
2
Draws
3
Rapid Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 5, Rapid Vienna have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2026, when Rapid Vienna 0-2 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — TSV Hartberg at 71%, Rapid Vienna at 82%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (TSV Hartberg) and 65% (Rapid Vienna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 12% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Rapid Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play Rapid Vienna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of TSV Hartberg's games and 82% of Rapid Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of TSV Hartberg's matches and 65% of Rapid Vienna's.
Do TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Rapid Vienna in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rapid Vienna edge out TSV Hartberg 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rapid Vienna beat TSV Hartberg 0-1 at Stadion Hartberg, Regular Season - 5, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.18 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.66 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. TSV Hartberg fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.94 / defence 1.06 against Rapid Vienna attack 1.08 / defence 0.92, drawn from 26/26 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 26% | Draw 27% | Rapid Vienna 47%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 49%, Rapid Vienna 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (37 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (37 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — TSV Hartberg 1.35 PPG, Rapid Vienna 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rapid Vienna win broke the near-deadlock. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.