TSV Hartberg 1-2 Lask Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates TSV Hartberg at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
PROfertil ARENA plays host to TSV Hartberg versus Lask Linz in Bundesliga, Championship Round - 6. Kick-off: Wednesday 24 April 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
TSV Hartberg have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
TSV Hartberg's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at PROfertil ARENA this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at PROfertil ARENA. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — TSV Hartberg are significantly better at PROfertil ARENA than their overall form suggests.
Lask Linz's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Lask Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lask Linz away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
TSV Hartberg half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Lask Linz half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 54% versus Lask Linz 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 63% | Lask Linz 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.06 xG and Lask Linz 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.966 / defence 0.938 | Lask Linz attack 0.925 / defence 0.818. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.013. Data: 44 TSV Hartberg games / 44 Lask Linz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 38% | Draw 34% | Lask Linz 28%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 2.63 | Draw 2.94 | Lask Linz 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates TSV Hartberg as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.94 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: TSV Hartberg 40% | Lask Linz 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Round - 6 | Venue: PROfertil ARENA • Kick-off: Wednesday 24 Apr 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 38% | Draw 34% | Lask Linz 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 40% | xG TSV Hartberg 1.06 / Lask Linz 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.966 / def 0.938 | Lask Linz attack 0.925 / def 0.818 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Lask Linz xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 24 April 2024 at PROfertil ARENA.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz?
TSV Hartberg 1 - 2 Lask Linz.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz being played?
The match is being played at PROfertil ARENA.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz is a Championship Round - 6 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 38% chance of winning, Lask Linz a 28% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Lask Linz (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates TSV Hartberg's attack at 0.97x the league average against Lask Linz's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lask Linz's attack (0.93x) against TSV Hartberg's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
38%
2.65
34%
2.94
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
1.94
0.88
Lask Linz xG
2.65
38%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
42%
2.41
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
16%
6.38
10%
10.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4 | 12.7 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.4 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 0.88 for Lask Linz, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
TSV Hartberg's recent record stands at 19W 14D 26L from 59 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lask Linz, meanwhile, have gone 25W 21D 13L across 59 games — 1.63 PPG, with D-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Lask Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lask Linz by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over TSV Hartberg heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, TSV Hartberg have managed 10W 7D 12L from 29 games — 1.28 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lask Linz's away record stands at 8W 15D 6L across 29 trips, a 1.34 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Lask Linz are on 1.44 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Blended
Lask Linz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 19W 14D 26L in their last 59 games (1.20 PPG), while Lask Linz have gone 25W 21D 13L in their last 59 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Lask Linz away?
Lask Linz's away record (1.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.28 PPG; Lask Linz away: 1.34 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lask Linz won 1-5 on 26 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, TSV Hartberg have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Lask Linz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
TSV Hartberg
5
Draws
5
Lask Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz?
From 10 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 0, Lask Linz have won 5, and 5 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when TSV Hartberg 1-5 Lask Linz.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 52%, Lask Linz 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (TSV Hartberg) and 31% (Lask Linz).
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg have failed to score in 28% of games; Lask Linz in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Lask Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play Lask Linz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of TSV Hartberg's recent matches and 55% of Lask Linz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of TSV Hartberg's recent games and 31% of Lask Linz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Lask Linz in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lask Linz defy the odds to beat TSV Hartberg 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lask Linz beat TSV Hartberg 1-2 at PROfertil ARENA, Championship Round - 6, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.06 xG and Lask Linz 0.88 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Lask Linz outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.97 / defence 0.94 against Lask Linz attack 0.93 / defence 0.82, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 38% | Draw 34% | Lask Linz 28%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Lask Linz win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 63%, Lask Linz 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Lask Linz's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lask Linz arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.20. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.