TSV Hartberg 1-2 Lask Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates TSV Hartberg at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as TSV Hartberg face Lask Linz.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
PROfertil ARENA plays host to TSV Hartberg versus Lask Linz in Bundesliga (Championship Round - 6). Kick-off: Wednesday 24 April 2024 at 18:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
TSV Hartberg have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
TSV Hartberg's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — TSV Hartberg are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Lask Linz's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Lask Linz away from home: 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
TSV Hartberg half-time and goal-timing data (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Lask Linz half-time and goal-timing data (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 54% versus Lask Linz 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 63% | Lask Linz 41%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: TSV Hartberg surrender their half-time lead 31% of the time, while Lask Linz have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.06 xG and Lask Linz 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.966 / defence 0.938 | Lask Linz attack 0.925 / defence 0.818. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.013. Data: built from TSV Hartberg's last 44 games and Lask Linz's last 44.
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 38% | Draw 34% | Lask Linz 28%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 2.65 | Draw 2.94 | Lask Linz 3.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates TSV Hartberg as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.94 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (TSV Hartberg's last 10 home games and Lask Linz's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: TSV Hartberg 40% (last 10 home games) | Lask Linz 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Round - 6 | Venue: PROfertil ARENA • Kick-off: Wednesday 24 April 2024 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 38% | Draw 34% | Lask Linz 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% (Under 69%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG TSV Hartberg 1.06 / Lask Linz 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.966 / def 0.938 | Lask Linz attack 0.925 / def 0.818 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Lask Linz xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz FAQs
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Wednesday 24 April 2024 at PROfertil ARENA.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz?
TSV Hartberg 1 - 2 Lask Linz.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz being played?
The match is being played at PROfertil ARENA.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz is a Bundesliga fixture (Championship Round - 6) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 38% chance of winning, Lask Linz a 28% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (69%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates TSV Hartberg's attack at 0.97x the league average against Lask Linz's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lask Linz's attack (0.93x) against TSV Hartberg's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from TSV Hartberg's last 44 games and Lask Linz's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
38%
2.65
34%
2.94
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
1.94
0.88
Lask Linz xG
2.65
38%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
42%
2.41
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
16%
6.38
10%
10.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4 | 12.7 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.4 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 0.88 for Lask Linz, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
TSV Hartberg's recent record stands at 19W 14D 26L from 59 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-W in the last five.
Lask Linz, meanwhile, have gone 25W 21D 13L across 59 games — 1.63 PPG, with D-W-L-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lask Linz by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over TSV Hartberg heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, TSV Hartberg have managed 10W 7D 12L from their last 29 home games — 1.28 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lask Linz's away record stands at 8W 15D 6L across their last 29 away games, a 1.34 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Lask Linz are on 1.44 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Blended
Lask Linz
Blended
TSV Hartberg (Home) vs Lask Linz (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
TSV Hartberg
Blended
Lask Linz
Blended
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz Form FAQs
What form are TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 19W 14D 26L in their last 59 games (1.20 PPG), while Lask Linz have gone 25W 21D 13L in their last 59 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Lask Linz away?
Lask Linz's away record (1.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.28 PPG; Lask Linz away: 1.34 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lask Linz won TSV Hartberg 1-5 Lask Linz on 26 Apr 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, TSV Hartberg have gone 0W 2D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Lask Linz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
TSV Hartberg
6
Draws
4
Lask Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, TSV Hartberg have won 0, Lask Linz have won 4, and 6 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: TSV Hartberg 3-3 Lask Linz.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 46% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 52%, Lask Linz 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (TSV Hartberg) and 31% (Lask Linz).
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg have failed to score in 28% of games; Lask Linz in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Lask Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of TSV Hartberg's recent matches and 55% of Lask Linz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of TSV Hartberg's recent games and 31% of Lask Linz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of TSV Hartberg's recent matches and 69% of Lask Linz's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lask Linz defy the odds to beat TSV Hartberg 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lask Linz beat TSV Hartberg 1-2 at PROfertil ARENA, Championship Round - 6, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.06 xG and Lask Linz 0.88 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Lask Linz outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.97 / defence 0.94 against Lask Linz attack 0.93 / defence 0.82, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 38% | Draw 34% | Lask Linz 28%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Lask Linz win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 63%, Lask Linz 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Lask Linz's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lask Linz arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.20. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.