Sturm Graz 5-0 Red Bull Salzburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sturm Graz at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sturm Graz face Red Bull Salzburg.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Merkur Arena plays host to Sturm Graz versus Red Bull Salzburg in Bundesliga (matchday 9). Kick-off: Sunday 6 October 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Sturm Graz have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Sturm Graz have posted 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Red Bull Salzburg (all games): 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Red Bull Salzburg's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for Sturm Graz, 2.00 for Red Bull Salzburg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Sturm Graz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Red Bull Salzburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sturm Graz 53% versus Red Bull Salzburg 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 47% | Red Bull Salzburg 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 1.55 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 1.106 / defence 1.080 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.039 / defence 0.905. League average goals — home 1.548 / away 1.204. Data: built from Sturm Graz's last 30 games and Red Bull Salzburg's last 28.
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 42% | Draw 25% | Red Bull Salzburg 33%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 2.38 | Draw 4.06 | Red Bull Salzburg 3.01. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sturm Graz as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Sturm Graz's last 10 home games and Red Bull Salzburg's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Sturm Graz 30% (last 10 home games) | Red Bull Salzburg 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 9 | Venue: Merkur Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 6 October 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 42% | Draw 25% | Red Bull Salzburg 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Sturm Graz 1.55 / Red Bull Salzburg 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 1.106 / def 1.080 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.039 / def 0.905 | league avg home 1.548 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Red Bull Salzburg xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg FAQs
What time does Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg kick off?
Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 6 October 2024 at Merkur Arena.
What was the final score in Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Sturm Graz 5 - 0 Red Bull Salzburg.
Where is Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg part of?
Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 9) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 42% chance of winning, Red Bull Salzburg a 33% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sturm Graz's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Red Bull Salzburg's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. Flip it around — Red Bull Salzburg's attack (1.04x) against Sturm Graz's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from Sturm Graz's last 30 games and Red Bull Salzburg's last 28 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
42%
2.38
25%
4.06
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
2.90
1.35
Red Bull Salzburg xG
2.38
42%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
26%
3.86
21%
4.71
Win to Nil
11%
9.17
7%
14.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.4 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.5 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 1.35 for Red Bull Salzburg, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sturm Graz's recent record stands at 22W 11D 5L from 38 games, a 2.03 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-W in the last five.
Red Bull Salzburg, meanwhile, have gone 24W 8D 6L across 38 games — 2.11 PPG, with W-W-L-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.03 PPG for Sturm Graz against 2.11 for Red Bull Salzburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sturm Graz have managed 12W 4D 3L from their last 19 home games — 2.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Red Bull Salzburg's away record stands at 10W 5D 4L across their last 19 away games, a 1.84 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Sturm Graz are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Red Bull Salzburg are on 2.29 scored and 0.92 conceded. Red Bull Salzburg's attacking output running into Sturm Graz's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Red Bull Salzburg in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Blended
Red Bull Salzburg
Early Season
Sturm Graz (Home) vs Red Bull Salzburg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sturm Graz
Blended
Red Bull Salzburg
Early Season
❓ Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg Form FAQs
What form are Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 22W 11D 5L in their last 38 games (2.03 PPG), while Red Bull Salzburg have gone 24W 8D 6L in their last 38 (2.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sturm Graz at home or Red Bull Salzburg away?
Sturm Graz's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sturm Graz at home: 2.11 PPG; Red Bull Salzburg away: 1.84 PPG.
Have Sturm Graz or Red Bull Salzburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Red Bull Salzburg in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg, the earliest from October 2024. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Red Bull Salzburg have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sturm Graz won Sturm Graz 5-0 Red Bull Salzburg on 6 Oct 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sturm Graz have gone 2W 2D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Red Bull Salzburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sturm Graz
3
Draws
3
Red Bull Salzburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sturm Graz have won 4, Red Bull Salzburg have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: Sturm Graz 3-4 Red Bull Salzburg.
Who has won more matches between Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sturm Graz 37%, Red Bull Salzburg 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Sturm Graz) and 53% (Red Bull Salzburg).
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Red Bull Salzburg in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / Red Bull Salzburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Sturm Graz's recent matches and 53% of Red Bull Salzburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Sturm Graz's recent games and 53% of Red Bull Salzburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Sturm Graz's recent matches and 74% of Red Bull Salzburg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sturm Graz run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Red Bull Salzburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat Red Bull Salzburg 5-0 at Merkur Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.55 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.35 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Sturm Graz beat their projection by 3.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Red Bull Salzburg landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 1.11 / defence 1.08 against Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.04 / defence 0.91, drawn from 30/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 42% | Draw 25% | Red Bull Salzburg 33%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 47%, Red Bull Salzburg 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sturm Graz's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sturm Graz 2.03 PPG, Red Bull Salzburg 2.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sturm Graz win broke the near-deadlock. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.