Red Bull Salzburg 2-1 SCR Altach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Red Bull Salzburg (65%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Red Bull Salzburg face SCR Altach.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 10 as Red Bull Salzburg welcome SCR Altach to Red Bull Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 19 October 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Red Bull Salzburg have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Red Bull Salzburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Red Bull Salzburg at Red Bull Arena this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Red Bull Salzburg are significantly better at Red Bull Arena than their overall form suggests.
SCR Altach — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, SCR Altach have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Red Bull Salzburg are in the better shape of the two on current Bundesliga data — 1.00 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Red Bull Salzburg register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, SCR Altach in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Red Bull Salzburg have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 6 past contests while SCR Altach have managed just 0 wins.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2023, ended 3–0 with Red Bull Salzburg winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Red Bull Salzburg and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Red Bull Salzburg in-play tendencies (39 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
SCR Altach in-play tendencies (39 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Red Bull Salzburg 46% versus SCR Altach 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Red Bull Salzburg 51% | SCR Altach 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Red Bull Salzburg 2.03 xG and SCR Altach 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.283 / defence 0.838 | SCR Altach attack 0.872 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.618 / away 1.177. Red Bull Salzburg carry an above-average attack strength of 1.283 — their λ of 2.03 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 29 Red Bull Salzburg games / 31 SCR Altach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Red Bull Salzburg 65% | Draw 20% | SCR Altach 15%. Fair-value odds: Red Bull Salzburg 1.54 | Draw 5.00 | SCR Altach 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Red Bull Salzburg (65%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Red Bull Salzburg at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Red Bull Salzburg 70% | SCR Altach 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Red Bull Salzburg vs SCR Altach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Red Bull Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Oct 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Red Bull Salzburg 65% | Draw 20% | SCR Altach 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 50% | xG Red Bull Salzburg 2.03 / SCR Altach 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.283 / def 0.838 | SCR Altach attack 0.872 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.618 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Red Bull Salzburg (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Red Bull Salzburg xG
Expected Goals
0.86
SCR Altach xG
50%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Red Bull Salzburg vs SCR Altach kick off?
Red Bull Salzburg vs SCR Altach kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 19 October 2024 at Red Bull Arena.
What was the final score in Red Bull Salzburg vs SCR Altach?
Red Bull Salzburg 2 - 1 SCR Altach.
Where is Red Bull Salzburg vs SCR Altach being played?
The match is being played at Red Bull Arena.
What competition is Red Bull Salzburg vs SCR Altach part of?
Red Bull Salzburg vs SCR Altach is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Red Bull Salzburg vs SCR Altach?
Our statistical model gives Red Bull Salzburg a 65% chance of winning, SCR Altach a 15% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Red Bull Salzburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Red Bull Salzburg vs SCR Altach?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Red Bull Salzburg and SCR Altach will score (BTTS).
Will Red Bull Salzburg vs SCR Altach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Red Bull Salzburg and SCR Altach?
Record (6 meetings): Red Bull Salzburg 4W | Draws 2 | SCR Altach 0W.
What form are Red Bull Salzburg and SCR Altach in?
Red Bull Salzburg (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. SCR Altach (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Red Bull Salzburg's attacking strength (1.28x league average) is weighed against SCR Altach's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.03. The same calculation in reverse, SCR Altach's attack versus Red Bull Salzburg's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Red Bull Salzburg Win
65%
1.55
20%
4.91
15%
6.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Red Bull Salzburg xG
Total xG
2.89
0.86
SCR Altach xG
1.55
65%
Home win
4.91
20%
Draw
6.68
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
13%
7.64
Win to Nil
27%
3.66
2%
51.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.8 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Red Bull Salzburg vs SCR Altach?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Red Bull Salzburg and SCR Altach expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Red Bull Salzburg and 0.86 for SCR Altach, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Red Bull Salzburg vs SCR Altach?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Red Bull Salzburg come into this having played 39 games, going 24W 8D 7L for 2.05 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Red Bull Salzburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, SCR Altach sit at 1.00 PPG from 39 outings (8W 15D 16L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for SCR Altach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Red Bull Salzburg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.05 PPG clear of SCR Altach — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Red Bull Salzburg's home form reads 13W 3D 2L across 18 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return.
Away from home, SCR Altach have taken 1.00 points per game from 18 outings (4W 6D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Red Bull Salzburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Red Bull Salzburg are averaging 2.23 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; SCR Altach are on 0.90 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Red Bull Salzburg have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Red Bull Salzburg
Early Season
SCR Altach
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Red Bull Salzburg and SCR Altach in coming into this match?
Red Bull Salzburg have gone 24W 8D 7L in their last 39 games (2.05 PPG), while SCR Altach have gone 8W 15D 16L in their last 39 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Red Bull Salzburg at home or SCR Altach away?
Red Bull Salzburg's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Red Bull Salzburg at home: 2.33 PPG; SCR Altach away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Red Bull Salzburg or SCR Altach been keeping clean sheets recently?
Red Bull Salzburg have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, SCR Altach in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 30 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Mar 2022, when Red Bull Salzburg won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Red Bull Salzburg's record when hosting SCR Altach specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Red Bull Salzburg
5
Draws
0
SCR Altach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Red Bull Salzburg and SCR Altach?
From 10 meetings on record, Red Bull Salzburg have won 5, SCR Altach have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Red Bull Salzburg and SCR Altach last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2025, when SCR Altach 1-1 Red Bull Salzburg.
Who has won more matches between Red Bull Salzburg and SCR Altach?
Red Bull Salzburg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Red Bull Salzburg 44%, SCR Altach 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Red Bull Salzburg) and 44% (SCR Altach).
On the defensive side: Red Bull Salzburg keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; SCR Altach in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Red Bull Salzburg home games / SCR Altach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Red Bull Salzburg play SCR Altach?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Red Bull Salzburg's recent matches and 50% of SCR Altach's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Red Bull Salzburg vs SCR Altach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Red Bull Salzburg's recent games and 44% of SCR Altach's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Red Bull Salzburg and SCR Altach tend to score early?
Red Bull Salzburg have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, SCR Altach in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Red Bull Salzburg edge out SCR Altach 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Red Bull Salzburg beat SCR Altach 2-1 at Red Bull Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Red Bull Salzburg 2.03 xG and SCR Altach 0.86 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.28 / defence 0.84 against SCR Altach attack 0.87 / defence 0.98, drawn from 29/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Red Bull Salzburg 65% | Draw 20% | SCR Altach 15%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 65%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Red Bull Salzburg 51%, SCR Altach 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (39 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
SCR Altach's trading profile (39 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.