Sturm Graz 2-0 Austria Lustenau – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sturm Graz (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sturm Graz face Austria Lustenau.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Austria Lustenau make the trip to Merkur Arena to face Sturm Graz in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Saturday 25 November 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sturm Graz have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sturm Graz have posted 7W 2D 1L at Merkur Arena — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Austria Lustenau (all games): 0W 1D 9L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 0.10 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Austria Lustenau, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Austria Lustenau have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 exceeds their overall 0.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 1.90 in Sturm Graz's favour (2.00 vs 0.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Across 3 previous meetings, Sturm Graz are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 0 draws in between.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2023, ended 1–0 with Sturm Graz winning.
The historical record gives Sturm Graz a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
Sturm Graz half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Austria Lustenau half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sturm Graz 56% versus Austria Lustenau 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 54% | Austria Lustenau 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 1.27 xG and Austria Lustenau 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 1.062 / defence 0.801 | Austria Lustenau attack 0.693 / defence 0.911. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 1.313. Data: 36 Sturm Graz games / 36 Austria Lustenau games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 49% | Draw 31% | Austria Lustenau 21%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 2.04 | Draw 3.23 | Austria Lustenau 4.76. Sturm Graz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sturm Graz at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.00 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates are neutral: Sturm Graz 50% | Austria Lustenau 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Merkur Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Nov 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 49% | Draw 31% | Austria Lustenau 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 38% | xG Sturm Graz 1.27 / Austria Lustenau 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 1.062 / def 0.801 | Austria Lustenau attack 0.693 / def 0.911 | league avg home 1.318 / away 1.313 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Austria Lustenau xG
38%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau kick off?
Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Merkur Arena.
What was the final score in Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau?
Sturm Graz 2 - 0 Austria Lustenau.
Where is Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau part of?
Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 49% chance of winning, Austria Lustenau a 21% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Sturm Graz and Austria Lustenau will score (BTTS).
Will Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Austria Lustenau?
Record (3 meetings): Sturm Graz 3W | Draws 0 | Austria Lustenau 0W.
What form are Sturm Graz and Austria Lustenau in?
Sturm Graz (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Austria Lustenau (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sturm Graz's attack at 1.06x the league average against Austria Lustenau's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Austria Lustenau's attack (0.69x) against Sturm Graz's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
49%
2.05
31%
3.27
21%
4.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
2.00
0.73
Austria Lustenau xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
4.85
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.63
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
48%
2.07
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
24%
4.25
6%
17.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 9.8 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.2 | 12.5 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 8.0 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and Austria Lustenau expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 0.73 for Austria Lustenau, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 46 outings, Sturm Graz have picked up 2.09 PPG on a 29W 9D 8L record — W-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Austria Lustenau's form line: 11W 13D 22L from 46 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L. The sample for Austria Lustenau is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sturm Graz are the form team by 1.09 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Austria Lustenau.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sturm Graz have posted 2.18 PPG from 22 outings (15W 3D 4L).
On the road, Austria Lustenau have gone 5W 8D 9L from 22 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sturm Graz are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Austria Lustenau are on 1.24 scored and 1.96 conceded.
Defensively: Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Blended
Austria Lustenau
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sturm Graz and Austria Lustenau in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 29W 9D 8L in their last 46 games (2.09 PPG), while Austria Lustenau have gone 11W 13D 22L in their last 46 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sturm Graz at home or Austria Lustenau away?
Sturm Graz's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sturm Graz at home: 2.18 PPG; Austria Lustenau away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Sturm Graz or Austria Lustenau been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Austria Lustenau in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 November 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Sturm Graz have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sturm Graz have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Austria Lustenau — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Sturm Graz
0
Draws
0
Austria Lustenau
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Austria Lustenau?
From 4 meetings on record, Sturm Graz have won 4, Austria Lustenau have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and Austria Lustenau last play each other?
They last met on 25 November 2023, when Sturm Graz 2-0 Austria Lustenau.
Who has won more matches between Sturm Graz and Austria Lustenau?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Austria Lustenau see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sturm Graz 50%, Austria Lustenau 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Sturm Graz) and 46% (Austria Lustenau).
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Austria Lustenau in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / Austria Lustenau away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sturm Graz play Austria Lustenau?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sturm Graz's recent matches and 50% of Austria Lustenau's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Sturm Graz's recent games and 46% of Austria Lustenau's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sturm Graz and Austria Lustenau tend to score early?
Sturm Graz have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Austria Lustenau in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sturm Graz cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Austria Lustenau.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat Austria Lustenau 2-0 at Merkur Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.27 xG and Austria Lustenau 0.73 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 1.06 / defence 0.80 against Austria Lustenau attack 0.69 / defence 0.91, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 49% | Draw 31% | Austria Lustenau 21%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 54%, Austria Lustenau 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sturm Graz's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Austria Lustenau's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Austria Lustenau (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.