SCR Altach 0-1 Austria Klagenfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Austria Klagenfurt (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as SCR Altach face Austria Klagenfurt.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SCR Altach host Austria Klagenfurt at CASHPOINT Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 26 November 2023 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SCR Altach have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SCR Altach have posted 2W 3D 5L at CASHPOINT Arena — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Austria Klagenfurt — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Austria Klagenfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Austria Klagenfurt have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Austria Klagenfurt's 1.50 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of SCR Altach's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Austria Klagenfurt have the better historical record — 4 wins from 5 previous contests against 0 for SCR Altach.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Austria Klagenfurt have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
SCR Altach trading profile (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Austria Klagenfurt trading profile (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 48% versus Austria Klagenfurt 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 48% | Austria Klagenfurt 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.13 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.772 / defence 0.932 | Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.056 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.305. SCR Altach's attack strength of 0.772 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 36 SCR Altach games / 36 Austria Klagenfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SCR Altach 32% | Draw 28% | Austria Klagenfurt 40%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 3.12 | Draw 3.57 | Austria Klagenfurt 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Austria Klagenfurt as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Austria Klagenfurt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SCR Altach 40% | Austria Klagenfurt 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SCR Altach vs Austria Klagenfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: CASHPOINT Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Nov 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SCR Altach 32% | Draw 28% | Austria Klagenfurt 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG SCR Altach 1.13 / Austria Klagenfurt 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: SCR Altach attack 0.772 / def 0.932 | Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.056 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: Austria Klagenfurt (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
SCR Altach xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Austria Klagenfurt xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SCR Altach vs Austria Klagenfurt kick off?
SCR Altach vs Austria Klagenfurt kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 26 November 2023 at CASHPOINT Arena.
What was the final score in SCR Altach vs Austria Klagenfurt?
SCR Altach 0 - 1 Austria Klagenfurt.
Where is SCR Altach vs Austria Klagenfurt being played?
The match is being played at CASHPOINT Arena.
What competition is SCR Altach vs Austria Klagenfurt part of?
SCR Altach vs Austria Klagenfurt is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win SCR Altach vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our statistical model gives SCR Altach a 32% chance of winning, Austria Klagenfurt a 40% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Austria Klagenfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in SCR Altach vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both SCR Altach and Austria Klagenfurt will score (BTTS).
Will SCR Altach vs Austria Klagenfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Austria Klagenfurt?
Record (5 meetings): SCR Altach 0W | Draws 1 | Austria Klagenfurt 4W.
What form are SCR Altach and Austria Klagenfurt in?
SCR Altach (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Austria Klagenfurt (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
SCR Altach's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Austria Klagenfurt's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Klagenfurt's attack versus SCR Altach's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Klagenfurt Win
32%
3.11
28%
3.55
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
SCR Altach xG
Total xG
2.41
1.28
Austria Klagenfurt xG
3.11
32%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
9%
11.24
13%
7.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 11.5 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.0 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SCR Altach vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are SCR Altach and Austria Klagenfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for SCR Altach and 1.28 for Austria Klagenfurt, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for SCR Altach vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SCR Altach's recent record stands at 9W 14D 23L from 46 games, a 0.89 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for SCR Altach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Austria Klagenfurt, meanwhile, have gone 16W 11D 19L across 46 games — 1.28 PPG, with D-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Austria Klagenfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SCR Altach on 0.89 PPG, Austria Klagenfurt on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, SCR Altach have managed 5W 6D 11L from 22 games — 0.95 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Austria Klagenfurt's away record stands at 9W 5D 8L across 22 trips, a 1.45 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Austria Klagenfurt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SCR Altach are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Austria Klagenfurt are on 1.39 scored and 1.80 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SCR Altach
Blended
Austria Klagenfurt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SCR Altach and Austria Klagenfurt in coming into this match?
SCR Altach have gone 9W 14D 23L in their last 46 games (0.89 PPG), while Austria Klagenfurt have gone 16W 11D 19L in their last 46 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SCR Altach at home or Austria Klagenfurt away?
Austria Klagenfurt's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SCR Altach at home: 0.95 PPG; Austria Klagenfurt away: 1.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Sep 2021, when Austria Klagenfurt won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SCR Altach's record when hosting Austria Klagenfurt specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
SCR Altach
4
Draws
5
Austria Klagenfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Austria Klagenfurt?
From 10 meetings on record, SCR Altach have won 1, Austria Klagenfurt have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did SCR Altach and Austria Klagenfurt last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2025, when SCR Altach 0-0 Austria Klagenfurt.
Who has won more matches between SCR Altach and Austria Klagenfurt?
Austria Klagenfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SCR Altach see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Austria Klagenfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SCR Altach 50%, Austria Klagenfurt 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (SCR Altach) and 82% (Austria Klagenfurt). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 68% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SCR Altach have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SCR Altach home games / Austria Klagenfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SCR Altach play Austria Klagenfurt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of SCR Altach's games and 68% of Austria Klagenfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SCR Altach vs Austria Klagenfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 36% of SCR Altach's matches and 82% of Austria Klagenfurt's.
Do SCR Altach and Austria Klagenfurt tend to score early?
SCR Altach have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Austria Klagenfurt in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Austria Klagenfurt edge out SCR Altach 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Klagenfurt beat SCR Altach 0-1 at CASHPOINT Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 1.13 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 1.28 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. SCR Altach fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 0.77 / defence 0.93 against Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.06 / defence 1.08, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 32% | Draw 28% | Austria Klagenfurt 40%, with Austria Klagenfurt to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 48%, Austria Klagenfurt 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SCR Altach's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Austria Klagenfurt's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SCR Altach 0.89 PPG, Austria Klagenfurt 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Klagenfurt win broke the near-deadlock. SCR Altach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward. Austria Klagenfurt (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.