SCR Altach 1-1 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sturm Graz (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as SCR Altach face Sturm Graz.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 15 as SCR Altach welcome Sturm Graz to CASHPOINT Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 November 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SCR Altach stand at 0W 3D 7L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at CASHPOINT Arena, SCR Altach have gone 1W 4D 5L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Sturm Graz have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sturm Graz have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sturm Graz are 2.00 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 0.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. SCR Altach register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sturm Graz in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The previous 7 encounters between these sides heavily favour Sturm Graz, who boast 6 victories compared to 0 for SCR Altach.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2024, ended 1–2 with Sturm Graz winning.
It is worth noting that Sturm Graz have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
SCR Altach in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Sturm Graz in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 48% versus Sturm Graz 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 41% | Sturm Graz 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.02 xG and Sturm Graz 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.797 / defence 1.135 | Sturm Graz attack 1.293 / defence 0.834. League average goals — home 1.531 / away 1.066. SCR Altach's attack strength of 0.797 is below the league average — the 1.02 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sturm Graz have an above-average attack strength of 1.293 — the away xG of 1.56 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 36 SCR Altach games / 36 Sturm Graz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SCR Altach 24% | Draw 26% | Sturm Graz 50%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 4.17 | Draw 3.85 | Sturm Graz 2.00. Sturm Graz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sturm Graz are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: SCR Altach 60% | Sturm Graz 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: CASHPOINT Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Nov 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SCR Altach 24% | Draw 26% | Sturm Graz 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG SCR Altach 1.02 / Sturm Graz 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: SCR Altach attack 0.797 / def 1.135 | Sturm Graz attack 1.293 / def 0.834 | league avg home 1.531 / away 1.066 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (50%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
SCR Altach xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Sturm Graz xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz kick off?
SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 30 November 2024 at CASHPOINT Arena.
What was the final score in SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz?
SCR Altach 1 - 1 Sturm Graz.
Where is SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz being played?
The match is being played at CASHPOINT Arena.
What competition is SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz part of?
SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model gives SCR Altach a 24% chance of winning, Sturm Graz a 50% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both SCR Altach and Sturm Graz will score (BTTS).
Will SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Sturm Graz?
Record (7 meetings): SCR Altach 0W | Draws 1 | Sturm Graz 6W.
What form are SCR Altach and Sturm Graz in?
SCR Altach (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Sturm Graz (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates SCR Altach's attack at 0.80x the league average against Sturm Graz's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sturm Graz's attack versus SCR Altach's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.3%), 1-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
24%
4.11
26%
3.86
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
SCR Altach xG
Total xG
2.58
1.56
Sturm Graz xG
4.11
24%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
21%
4.78
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
5%
19.66
18%
5.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 11.8 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.1 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are SCR Altach and Sturm Graz expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for SCR Altach and 1.56 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SCR Altach come into this having played 46 games, going 8W 16D 22L for 0.87 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L. The sample for SCR Altach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sturm Graz sit at 2.15 PPG from 46 outings (29W 12D 5L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sturm Graz carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.28 PPG clear of SCR Altach — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
SCR Altach's home form reads 4W 9D 9L across 22 games on their own ground, a 0.95 PPG return.
Away from home, Sturm Graz have taken 2.09 points per game from 22 outings (13W 7D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SCR Altach are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Sturm Graz are on 2.00 scored and 0.83 conceded.
Defensively: Sturm Graz in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SCR Altach
Blended
Sturm Graz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SCR Altach and Sturm Graz in coming into this match?
SCR Altach have gone 8W 16D 22L in their last 46 games (0.87 PPG), while Sturm Graz have gone 29W 12D 5L in their last 46 (2.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SCR Altach at home or Sturm Graz away?
Sturm Graz's away record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SCR Altach at home: 0.95 PPG; Sturm Graz away: 2.09 PPG.
Have SCR Altach or Sturm Graz been keeping clean sheets recently?
SCR Altach have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Sturm Graz in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Sturm Graz have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Aug 2022, when Sturm Graz won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SCR Altach's record when hosting Sturm Graz specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
SCR Altach
2
Draws
8
Sturm Graz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Sturm Graz?
From 10 meetings on record, SCR Altach have won 0, Sturm Graz have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SCR Altach and Sturm Graz last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Sturm Graz 2-0 SCR Altach.
Who has won more matches between SCR Altach and Sturm Graz?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SCR Altach 50%, Sturm Graz 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (SCR Altach) and 64% (Sturm Graz).
On the defensive side: SCR Altach have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SCR Altach home games / Sturm Graz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SCR Altach play Sturm Graz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of SCR Altach's games and 68% of Sturm Graz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of SCR Altach's recent games and 64% of Sturm Graz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SCR Altach and Sturm Graz tend to score early?
SCR Altach have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Sturm Graz in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SCR Altach and Sturm Graz share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at CASHPOINT Arena, Regular Season - 15, as SCR Altach and Sturm Graz drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 1.02 xG and Sturm Graz 1.56 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 0.80 / defence 1.14 against Sturm Graz attack 1.29 / defence 0.83, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 24% | Draw 26% | Sturm Graz 50%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 41%, Sturm Graz 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SCR Altach's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Sturm Graz's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 0.87. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.