TSV Hartberg 1-1 Red Bull Salzburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates TSV Hartberg at 52%, yet the head-to-head data favours Red Bull Salzburg — this TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
TSV Hartberg welcome Red Bull Salzburg to PROfertil ARENA in Bundesliga (matchday 15). Kick-off is Saturday 30 November 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, TSV Hartberg stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
TSV Hartberg's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Red Bull Salzburg have recorded 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Red Bull Salzburg's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: TSV Hartberg 1.50 PPG, Red Bull Salzburg 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
Red Bull Salzburg have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 3 H2H matches we hold against 0 for TSV Hartberg. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 5.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 12 May 2024, ended TSV Hartberg 1–5 Red Bull Salzburg — a Red Bull Salzburg win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Red Bull Salzburg have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 5.7 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
TSV Hartberg trading profile (last 44 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Red Bull Salzburg trading profile (last 44 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 61% versus Red Bull Salzburg 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 61% | Red Bull Salzburg 50%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: TSV Hartberg surrender their half-time lead 31% of the time, while Red Bull Salzburg have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 40% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.47 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.922 / defence 0.955 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 0.799 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 1.531 / away 1.066. Red Bull Salzburg's attack rating of 0.799 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.81. Data: built from TSV Hartberg's last 35 games and Red Bull Salzburg's last 34.
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 52% | Draw 27% | Red Bull Salzburg 21%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 1.91 | Draw 3.67 | Red Bull Salzburg 4.86. TSV Hartberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates TSV Hartberg as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (TSV Hartberg's last 10 home games and Red Bull Salzburg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 5.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches point the other way.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: TSV Hartberg 70% (last 10 home games) | Red Bull Salzburg 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 15 | Venue: PROfertil ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 30 November 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 52% | Draw 27% | Red Bull Salzburg 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG TSV Hartberg 1.47 / Red Bull Salzburg 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.922 / def 0.955 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 0.799 / def 1.038 | league avg home 1.531 / away 1.066 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Red Bull Salzburg xG
43%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg FAQs
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 30 November 2024 at PROfertil ARENA.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg?
TSV Hartberg 1 - 1 Red Bull Salzburg.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg being played?
The match is being played at PROfertil ARENA.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 15) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 52% chance of winning, Red Bull Salzburg a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates TSV Hartberg's attack at 0.92x the league average against Red Bull Salzburg's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Red Bull Salzburg's attack versus TSV Hartberg's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from TSV Hartberg's last 35 games and Red Bull Salzburg's last 34 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.4%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
52%
1.91
27%
3.67
21%
4.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.28
0.81
Red Bull Salzburg xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
4.86
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
23%
4.33
Win to Nil
23%
4.32
5%
21.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 12.2 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 8.9 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 0.81 for Red Bull Salzburg, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
TSV Hartberg come into this having played 44 games, going 15W 11D 18L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-L.
On the other side, Red Bull Salzburg sit at 1.93 PPG from 44 outings (25W 10D 9L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-L across their last five.
Red Bull Salzburg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of TSV Hartberg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
TSV Hartberg's home form reads 9W 5D 9L across their last 23 home games, a 1.39 PPG return.
Away from home, Red Bull Salzburg have taken 1.70 points per game from their last 23 away games (11W 6D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Red Bull Salzburg are on 2.05 scored and 1.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: TSV Hartberg have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Red Bull Salzburg in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Blended
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
TSV Hartberg (Home) vs Red Bull Salzburg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
TSV Hartberg
Blended
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg Form FAQs
What form are TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 15W 11D 18L in their last 44 games (1.27 PPG), while Red Bull Salzburg have gone 25W 10D 9L in their last 44 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Red Bull Salzburg away?
Red Bull Salzburg's away record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.39 PPG; Red Bull Salzburg away: 1.70 PPG.
Have TSV Hartberg or Red Bull Salzburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
TSV Hartberg have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Red Bull Salzburg in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from November 2023. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 1 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 Mar 2024, when Red Bull Salzburg won Red Bull Salzburg 5-1 TSV Hartberg.
TSV Hartberg's record when hosting Red Bull Salzburg specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
TSV Hartberg
2
Draws
7
Red Bull Salzburg
Recent Meetings
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, TSV Hartberg have won 1, Red Bull Salzburg have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 August 2026: Red Bull Salzburg 1-0 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg?
Red Bull Salzburg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 56%, Red Bull Salzburg 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (TSV Hartberg) and 48% (Red Bull Salzburg).
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Red Bull Salzburg in 44%; Red Bull Salzburg in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Red Bull Salzburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of TSV Hartberg's recent matches and 44% of Red Bull Salzburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of TSV Hartberg's recent games and 48% of Red Bull Salzburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of TSV Hartberg's recent matches and 70% of Red Bull Salzburg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at PROfertil ARENA, Regular Season - 15, as TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.47 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 0.81 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.92 / defence 0.95 against Red Bull Salzburg attack 0.80 / defence 1.04, drawn from 35/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 52% | Draw 27% | Red Bull Salzburg 21%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 61%, Red Bull Salzburg 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (44 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (44 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.