Lask Linz 0-0 FC BW Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lask Linz at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lask Linz face FC BW Linz.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lask Linz and FC BW Linz meet at Raiffeisen Arena in Bundesliga (matchday 17). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 9 February 2025 at 16:00 UK time.
Current Form
Lask Linz's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Lask Linz have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.70 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
FC BW Linz have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC BW Linz away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Lask Linz, 1.30 for FC BW Linz — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Lask Linz's last 10 home games and FC BW Linz's last 10 away games) — Lask Linz have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, FC BW Linz in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Lask Linz, 2 for FC BW Linz and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.7 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 14 Sep 2024, ended Lask Linz 0–1 FC BW Linz — a FC BW Linz win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Lask Linz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 48 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
FC BW Linz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 48 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lask Linz 54% versus FC BW Linz 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lask Linz 50% | FC BW Linz 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lask Linz 1.59 xG and FC BW Linz 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lask Linz attack 1.038 / defence 1.220 | FC BW Linz attack 0.958 / defence 1.051. League average goals — home 1.455 / away 1.224. Lask Linz's defence rating of 1.220 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing FC BW Linz's projected output up. Data: built from Lask Linz's last 38 games and FC BW Linz's last 38.
Result probabilities: Lask Linz 40% | Draw 27% | FC BW Linz 33%. Fair-value odds: Lask Linz 2.51 | Draw 3.69 | FC BW Linz 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.59 / 1.43) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lask Linz as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lask Linz if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Lask Linz's last 10 home games and FC BW Linz's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lask Linz 70% (last 10 home games) | FC BW Linz 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lask Linz vs FC BW Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 17 | Venue: Raiffeisen Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 9 February 2025 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lask Linz 40% | Draw 27% | FC BW Linz 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Lask Linz 1.59 / FC BW Linz 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Lask Linz attack 1.038 / def 1.220 | FC BW Linz attack 0.958 / def 1.051 | league avg home 1.455 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Lask Linz (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Lask Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.43
FC BW Linz xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lask Linz vs FC BW Linz FAQs
What time does Lask Linz vs FC BW Linz kick off?
Lask Linz vs FC BW Linz kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 9 February 2025 at Raiffeisen Arena.
What was the final score in Lask Linz vs FC BW Linz?
Lask Linz 0 - 0 FC BW Linz.
Where is Lask Linz vs FC BW Linz being played?
The match is being played at Raiffeisen Arena.
What competition is Lask Linz vs FC BW Linz part of?
Lask Linz vs FC BW Linz is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 17) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Lask Linz vs FC BW Linz?
Our statistical model gives Lask Linz a 40% chance of winning, FC BW Linz a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Lask Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lask Linz vs FC BW Linz?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Lask Linz and FC BW Linz will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lask Linz vs FC BW Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Lask Linz's attack at 1.04x the league average against FC BW Linz's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC BW Linz's attack (0.96x) against Lask Linz's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from Lask Linz's last 38 games and FC BW Linz's last 38 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lask Linz Win
40%
2.51
27%
3.69
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Lask Linz xG
Total xG
3.02
1.43
FC BW Linz xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
24%
4.18
20%
4.89
Win to Nil
10%
10.50
7%
14.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.1 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.8 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lask Linz vs FC BW Linz Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lask Linz vs FC BW Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Lask Linz and FC BW Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Lask Linz and 1.43 for FC BW Linz, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Lask Linz vs FC BW Linz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 48 outings, Lask Linz have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 20W 12D 16L record — D-W-W-L-L across the most recent five.
FC BW Linz's form line: 14W 13D 21L from 48 games, 1.15 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Lask Linz against 1.15 for FC BW Linz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Lask Linz have posted 1.58 PPG from their last 24 home games (11W 5D 8L).
On the road, FC BW Linz have gone 5W 5D 14L from their last 24 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lask Linz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lask Linz are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; FC BW Linz are on 1.10 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lask Linz
Blended
FC BW Linz
Blended
Lask Linz (Home) vs FC BW Linz (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lask Linz
Blended
FC BW Linz
Blended
❓ Lask Linz vs FC BW Linz Form FAQs
What form are Lask Linz and FC BW Linz in coming into this match?
Lask Linz have gone 20W 12D 16L in their last 48 games (1.50 PPG), while FC BW Linz have gone 14W 13D 21L in their last 48 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lask Linz at home or FC BW Linz away?
Lask Linz's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lask Linz at home: 1.58 PPG; FC BW Linz away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Lask Linz or FC BW Linz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lask Linz have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, FC BW Linz in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Lask Linz and FC BW Linz, the earliest from August 2023. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 1 November 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Lask Linz have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lask Linz have gone 2W 1D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FC BW Linz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Lask Linz
1
Draws
2
FC BW Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ Lask Linz vs FC BW Linz H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and FC BW Linz?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Lask Linz have won 3, FC BW Linz have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Lask Linz and FC BW Linz last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 November 2025: FC BW Linz 0-1 Lask Linz.
Who has won more matches between Lask Linz and FC BW Linz?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
FC BW Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 71% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lask Linz 50%, FC BW Linz 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Lask Linz) and 50% (FC BW Linz).
On the defensive side: Lask Linz keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; FC BW Linz in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lask Linz home games / FC BW Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lask Linz vs FC BW Linz Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lask Linz and FC BW Linz matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Lask Linz's recent matches and 54% of FC BW Linz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lask Linz and FC BW Linz matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Lask Linz's recent games and 50% of FC BW Linz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lask Linz and FC BW Linz matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Lask Linz's recent matches and 75% of FC BW Linz's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lask Linz's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Raiffeisen Arena, Regular Season - 17, as Lask Linz and FC BW Linz drew 0-0 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 1.59 xG and FC BW Linz 1.43 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lask Linz fell 1.6 short of their projected output. FC BW Linz landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 1.04 / defence 1.22 against FC BW Linz attack 0.96 / defence 1.05, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 40% | Draw 27% | FC BW Linz 33%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 50%, FC BW Linz 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lask Linz's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC BW Linz's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lask Linz 1.50 PPG, FC BW Linz 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lask Linz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. FC BW Linz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.79 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.