FC BW Linz 2-1 Austria Klagenfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC BW Linz at 67% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as FC BW Linz face Austria Klagenfurt.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC BW Linz host Austria Klagenfurt at Hofmann Personal Stadion in Bundesliga (matchday 16). Kick-off is Sunday 8 December 2024 at 13:30 UK time.
Form Guide
FC BW Linz — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, FC BW Linz have posted 6W 0D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — FC BW Linz are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Austria Klagenfurt stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Austria Klagenfurt's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC BW Linz 1.30 PPG, Austria Klagenfurt 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, FC BW Linz have won 0, Austria Klagenfurt 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 31 Aug 2024, ended FC BW Linz 1–3 Austria Klagenfurt — a Austria Klagenfurt win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
FC BW Linz trading profile (last 46 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Austria Klagenfurt trading profile (last 46 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC BW Linz 50% versus Austria Klagenfurt 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC BW Linz 46% | Austria Klagenfurt 52%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: FC BW Linz surrender their half-time lead 46% of the time, while Austria Klagenfurt have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 37% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC BW Linz 2.05 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC BW Linz attack 0.901 / defence 0.853 | Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.748 / defence 1.483. League average goals — home 1.536 / away 1.196. Austria Klagenfurt's defence rating of 1.483 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing FC BW Linz's projected output up. Austria Klagenfurt's attack rating of 0.748 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.76. Data: built from FC BW Linz's last 37 games and Austria Klagenfurt's last 36.
Result probabilities: FC BW Linz 67% | Draw 21% | Austria Klagenfurt 12%. Fair-value odds: FC BW Linz 1.49 | Draw 4.86 | Austria Klagenfurt 8.05. The model has a clear lean to FC BW Linz (67%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC BW Linz as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (FC BW Linz's last 10 home games and Austria Klagenfurt's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC BW Linz 50% (last 10 home games) | Austria Klagenfurt 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC BW Linz vs Austria Klagenfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 16 | Venue: Hofmann Personal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 8 December 2024 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC BW Linz 67% | Draw 21% | Austria Klagenfurt 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG FC BW Linz 2.05 / Austria Klagenfurt 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: FC BW Linz attack 0.901 / def 0.853 | Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.748 / def 1.483 | league avg home 1.536 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: FC BW Linz (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
FC BW Linz xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Austria Klagenfurt xG
47%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC BW Linz vs Austria Klagenfurt FAQs
What time does FC BW Linz vs Austria Klagenfurt kick off?
FC BW Linz vs Austria Klagenfurt kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 8 December 2024 at Hofmann Personal Stadion.
What was the final score in FC BW Linz vs Austria Klagenfurt?
FC BW Linz 2 - 1 Austria Klagenfurt.
Where is FC BW Linz vs Austria Klagenfurt being played?
The match is being played at Hofmann Personal Stadion.
What competition is FC BW Linz vs Austria Klagenfurt part of?
FC BW Linz vs Austria Klagenfurt is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 16) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win FC BW Linz vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our statistical model gives FC BW Linz a 67% chance of winning, Austria Klagenfurt a 12% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making FC BW Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC BW Linz vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both FC BW Linz and Austria Klagenfurt will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will FC BW Linz vs Austria Klagenfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC BW Linz's attack rating (0.90) and Austria Klagenfurt's defence rating (1.48), the model arrives at 2.05 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Klagenfurt's attack versus FC BW Linz's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC BW Linz's last 37 games and Austria Klagenfurt's last 36 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 1-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC BW Linz Win
67%
1.49
21%
4.86
12%
8.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
FC BW Linz xG
Total xG
2.81
0.76
Austria Klagenfurt xG
1.49
67%
Home win
4.86
21%
Draw
8.05
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
13%
7.78
Win to Nil
31%
3.20
2%
62.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 9.4 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.6 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.6 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC BW Linz vs Austria Klagenfurt Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC BW Linz vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are FC BW Linz and Austria Klagenfurt expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for FC BW Linz and 0.76 for Austria Klagenfurt, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for FC BW Linz vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC BW Linz's recent record stands at 13W 13D 20L from 46 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-W in the last five.
Austria Klagenfurt, meanwhile, have gone 13W 15D 18L across 46 games — 1.17 PPG, with D-W-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC BW Linz on 1.13 PPG, Austria Klagenfurt on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC BW Linz have managed 8W 8D 7L from their last 23 home games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Austria Klagenfurt's away record stands at 7W 6D 10L across their last 23 away games, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
FC BW Linz are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Austria Klagenfurt are on 1.15 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC BW Linz
Blended
Austria Klagenfurt
Blended
FC BW Linz (Home) vs Austria Klagenfurt (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC BW Linz
Blended
Austria Klagenfurt
Blended
❓ FC BW Linz vs Austria Klagenfurt Form FAQs
What form are FC BW Linz and Austria Klagenfurt in coming into this match?
FC BW Linz have gone 13W 13D 20L in their last 46 games (1.13 PPG), while Austria Klagenfurt have gone 13W 15D 18L in their last 46 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC BW Linz at home or Austria Klagenfurt away?
FC BW Linz's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC BW Linz at home: 1.39 PPG; Austria Klagenfurt away: 1.17 PPG.
Have FC BW Linz or Austria Klagenfurt been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC BW Linz have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Austria Klagenfurt in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from September 2023. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 8 December 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
FC BW Linz's record when hosting Austria Klagenfurt specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
FC BW Linz
1
Draws
2
Austria Klagenfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ FC BW Linz vs Austria Klagenfurt H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC BW Linz and Austria Klagenfurt?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, FC BW Linz have won 1, Austria Klagenfurt have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did FC BW Linz and Austria Klagenfurt last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 December 2024: FC BW Linz 2-1 Austria Klagenfurt.
Who has won more matches between FC BW Linz and Austria Klagenfurt?
Austria Klagenfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC BW Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Austria Klagenfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC BW Linz 48%, Austria Klagenfurt 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (FC BW Linz) and 52% (Austria Klagenfurt).
On the defensive side: FC BW Linz keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Austria Klagenfurt in 30%; FC BW Linz have failed to score in 26% of games; Austria Klagenfurt in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC BW Linz home games / Austria Klagenfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC BW Linz vs Austria Klagenfurt Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC BW Linz and Austria Klagenfurt matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of FC BW Linz's recent matches and 39% of Austria Klagenfurt's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are FC BW Linz and Austria Klagenfurt matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of FC BW Linz's recent games and 52% of Austria Klagenfurt's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC BW Linz and Austria Klagenfurt matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of FC BW Linz's recent matches and 74% of Austria Klagenfurt's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC BW Linz edge out Austria Klagenfurt 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC BW Linz beat Austria Klagenfurt 2-1 at Hofmann Personal Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC BW Linz 2.05 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 0.76 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC BW Linz attack 0.90 / defence 0.85 against Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.75 / defence 1.48, drawn from 37/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC BW Linz 67% | Draw 21% | Austria Klagenfurt 12%, with FC BW Linz to win its most likely call at 67%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC BW Linz 46%, Austria Klagenfurt 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC BW Linz's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Austria Klagenfurt's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC BW Linz 1.13 PPG, Austria Klagenfurt 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC BW Linz win broke the near-deadlock. FC BW Linz (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.