Grazer AK vs WSG Wattens – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Grazer AK (36%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Grazer AK face WSG Wattens.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
WSG Wattens make the trip to Merkur-Arena to face Grazer AK in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Saturday 30 January 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Grazer AK have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Grazer AK have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Grazer AK have posted 5W 5D 0L at Merkur-Arena — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Grazer AK are significantly better at Merkur-Arena than their overall form suggests.
WSG Wattens's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. WSG Wattens have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
WSG Wattens's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Grazer AK's favour (1.50 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Grazer AK lead 3W to 1W over the last 8 encounters, with 4 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2026, ended 4–0 with Grazer AK winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Grazer AK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
WSG Wattens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grazer AK 56% versus WSG Wattens 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grazer AK 62% | WSG Wattens 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grazer AK 1.35 xG and WSG Wattens 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grazer AK attack 0.886 / defence 0.991 | WSG Wattens attack 1.091 / defence 0.914. League average goals — home 1.667 / away 1.199. Data: 29 Grazer AK games / 29 WSG Wattens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grazer AK 36% | Draw 30% | WSG Wattens 34%. Fair-value odds: Grazer AK 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | WSG Wattens 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Grazer AK are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Grazer AK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Grazer AK 70% | WSG Wattens 30%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grazer AK vs WSG Wattens | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Merkur-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jan 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grazer AK 36% | Draw 30% | WSG Wattens 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 56% | xG Grazer AK 1.35 / WSG Wattens 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Grazer AK attack 0.886 / def 0.991 | WSG Wattens attack 1.091 / def 0.914 | league avg home 1.667 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Grazer AK (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Grazer AK xG
Expected Goals
1.30
WSG Wattens xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grazer AK vs WSG Wattens kick off?
Grazer AK vs WSG Wattens is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 30 January 2027 at Merkur-Arena.
Where is Grazer AK vs WSG Wattens being played?
The match is being played at Merkur-Arena.
What competition is Grazer AK vs WSG Wattens part of?
Grazer AK vs WSG Wattens is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Grazer AK vs WSG Wattens?
Our statistical model gives Grazer AK a 36% chance of winning, WSG Wattens a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Grazer AK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grazer AK vs WSG Wattens?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Grazer AK and WSG Wattens will score (BTTS).
Will Grazer AK vs WSG Wattens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grazer AK and WSG Wattens?
Record (8 meetings): Grazer AK 3W | Draws 4 | WSG Wattens 1W.
What form are Grazer AK and WSG Wattens in?
Grazer AK (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. WSG Wattens (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Grazer AK's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against WSG Wattens's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. Flip it around — WSG Wattens's attack (1.09x) against Grazer AK's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Grazer AK Win
36%
2.78
30%
3.28
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Grazer AK xG
Total xG
2.65
1.30
WSG Wattens xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
26%
3.86
Win to Nil
10%
10.14
9%
11.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.4 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grazer AK vs WSG Wattens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Grazer AK and WSG Wattens expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Grazer AK and 1.30 for WSG Wattens, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Grazer AK vs WSG Wattens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 39 outings, Grazer AK have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 11W 12D 16L record — L-L-D-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Grazer AK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
WSG Wattens's form line: 12W 12D 15L from 39 games, 1.23 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for WSG Wattens, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Grazer AK against 1.23 for WSG Wattens. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Grazer AK have posted 1.58 PPG from 19 outings (7W 9D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.15 PPG overall — Grazer AK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, WSG Wattens have gone 5W 4D 10L from 19 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Grazer AK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Grazer AK are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; WSG Wattens are on 1.26 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grazer AK
Early Season
WSG Wattens
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grazer AK and WSG Wattens in coming into this match?
Grazer AK have gone 11W 12D 16L in their last 39 games (1.15 PPG), while WSG Wattens have gone 12W 12D 15L in their last 39 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grazer AK at home or WSG Wattens away?
Grazer AK's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grazer AK at home: 1.58 PPG; WSG Wattens away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Grazer AK have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Grazer AK won 1-5 on 21 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Grazer AK have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against WSG Wattens — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Grazer AK
4
Draws
1
WSG Wattens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grazer AK and WSG Wattens?
From 8 meetings on record, Grazer AK have won 3, WSG Wattens have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Grazer AK and WSG Wattens last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Grazer AK 4-0 WSG Wattens.
Who has won more matches between Grazer AK and WSG Wattens?
Grazer AK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Grazer AK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Grazer AK 74%, WSG Wattens 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Grazer AK and 58% for WSG Wattens. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: WSG Wattens in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grazer AK home games / WSG Wattens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grazer AK play WSG Wattens?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Grazer AK's games and 42% of WSG Wattens's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Grazer AK vs WSG Wattens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Grazer AK's matches and 58% of WSG Wattens's.
Do Grazer AK and WSG Wattens tend to score early?
Grazer AK have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, WSG Wattens in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.