Grazer AK 1-2 Austria Vienna – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Austria Vienna at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Grazer AK vs Austria Vienna encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Grazer AK welcome Austria Vienna to Merkur Arena in Bundesliga (matchday 20). Kick-off is Saturday 1 March 2025 at 16:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Grazer AK have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Grazer AK at home: 1W 4D 4L from their last 9 home games — 0.78 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Austria Vienna stand at 8W 1D 1L — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

On the road, Austria Vienna have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Form points away from home here. Austria Vienna's 2.50 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Grazer AK's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Grazer AK, 1 for Austria Vienna and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 5 Oct 2024, ended Grazer AK 1–2 Austria Vienna — a Austria Vienna win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Grazer AK in-play tendencies (last 19 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

Austria Vienna in-play tendencies (last 19 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Grazer AK 74% and Austria Vienna 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grazer AK 63% | Austria Vienna 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Grazer AK 0.99 xG and Austria Vienna 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grazer AK attack 0.775 / defence 1.216 | Austria Vienna attack 1.088 / defence 0.880. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.192. Grazer AK's attack rating of 0.775 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.99. Grazer AK's defence rating of 1.216 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Austria Vienna's projected output up. Data: built from Grazer AK's last 19 games and Austria Vienna's last 41.

Result probabilities: Grazer AK 20% | Draw 32% | Austria Vienna 48%. Fair-value odds: Grazer AK 4.90 | Draw 3.14 | Austria Vienna 2.09. Austria Vienna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Austria Vienna as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Austria Vienna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Grazer AK 67% (last 9 home games) | Austria Vienna 50% (last 10 away games).

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