Austria Vienna 0-1 Red Bull Salzburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Austria Vienna at 56% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Austria Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg meet at Generali Arena in Bundesliga (matchday 19). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 22 February 2025 at 16:00 UK time.
Form
Austria Vienna (all games): 9W 1D 0L across their last 10 — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters, Austria Vienna have posted 9W 1D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Red Bull Salzburg's record over their last 10 games: 2W 6D 2L (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Red Bull Salzburg's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form favours the hosts. Austria Vienna's 2.80 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Red Bull Salzburg's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Austria Vienna, 1 for Red Bull Salzburg and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 28 Sep 2024, ended Austria Vienna 0–2 Red Bull Salzburg — a Red Bull Salzburg win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Austria Vienna — key trading statistics (last 50 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Red Bull Salzburg — key trading statistics (last 50 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Vienna 48% versus Red Bull Salzburg 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Vienna 52% | Red Bull Salzburg 50%). Note also that Red Bull Salzburg surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Austria Vienna recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Vienna 1.63 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Vienna attack 1.273 / defence 0.830 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 0.754 / defence 0.928. League average goals — home 1.383 / away 1.166. Austria Vienna carry an above-average attack rating of 1.273 — their 1.63 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Red Bull Salzburg's attack rating of 0.754 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.73. Data: built from Austria Vienna's last 40 games and Red Bull Salzburg's last 40.
Result probabilities: Austria Vienna 56% | Draw 31% | Red Bull Salzburg 13%. Fair-value odds: Austria Vienna 1.80 | Draw 3.21 | Red Bull Salzburg 7.62. The model has a clear lean to Austria Vienna (56%) — a 25pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Austria Vienna as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 31% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 55%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Austria Vienna 70% (last 10 home games) | Red Bull Salzburg 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 19 | Venue: Generali Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 22 February 2025 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Vienna 56% | Draw 31% | Red Bull Salzburg 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Austria Vienna 1.63 / Red Bull Salzburg 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Vienna attack 1.273 / def 0.830 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 0.754 / def 0.928 | league avg home 1.383 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Austria Vienna (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Austria Vienna xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Red Bull Salzburg xG
45%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg FAQs
What time does Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg kick off?
Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 22 February 2025 at Generali Arena.
What was the final score in Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Austria Vienna 0 - 1 Red Bull Salzburg.
Where is Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg being played?
The match is being played at Generali Arena.
What competition is Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg part of?
Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 19) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our statistical model gives Austria Vienna a 56% chance of winning, Red Bull Salzburg a 13% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Austria Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Austria Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Austria Vienna's attacking strength (1.27x league average) is weighed against Red Bull Salzburg's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.63. Flip it around — Red Bull Salzburg's attack (0.75x) against Austria Vienna's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from Austria Vienna's last 40 games and Red Bull Salzburg's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.7%), 2-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Vienna Win
56%
1.80
31%
3.21
13%
7.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.6%
Home win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Austria Vienna xG
Total xG
2.36
0.73
Red Bull Salzburg xG
1.80
56%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
7.62
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
20%
5.12
Win to Nil
27%
3.73
3%
39.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 11.2 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.6 | 9.2 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.8 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Austria Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Austria Vienna and 0.73 for Red Bull Salzburg, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 50 outings, Austria Vienna have picked up 1.78 PPG on a 25W 14D 11L record — W-W-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Red Bull Salzburg's form line: 27W 14D 9L from 50 games, 1.90 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.78 PPG for Austria Vienna against 1.90 for Red Bull Salzburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Austria Vienna have posted 2.16 PPG from their last 25 home games (15W 9D 1L).
On the road, Red Bull Salzburg have gone 11W 8D 6L from their last 25 away games — 1.64 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Austria Vienna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Austria Vienna are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Red Bull Salzburg are on 2.02 scored and 0.98 conceded. Red Bull Salzburg's attacking output running into Austria Vienna's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Austria Vienna have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Red Bull Salzburg in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Vienna
Blended
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
Austria Vienna (Home) vs Red Bull Salzburg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Austria Vienna
Blended
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
❓ Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg Form FAQs
What form are Austria Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg in coming into this match?
Austria Vienna have gone 25W 14D 11L in their last 50 games (1.78 PPG), while Red Bull Salzburg have gone 27W 14D 9L in their last 50 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Vienna at home or Red Bull Salzburg away?
Austria Vienna's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Vienna at home: 2.16 PPG; Red Bull Salzburg away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Austria Vienna or Red Bull Salzburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Austria Vienna have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Red Bull Salzburg in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Austria Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg, the earliest from November 2023. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 30 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Red Bull Salzburg have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Red Bull Salzburg won Austria Vienna 0-3 Red Bull Salzburg on 26 Oct 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Austria Vienna have gone 0W 1D 4L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Red Bull Salzburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Austria Vienna
1
Draws
8
Red Bull Salzburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Austria Vienna have won 1, Red Bull Salzburg have won 8, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Austria Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 August 2026: Red Bull Salzburg 4-1 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Austria Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg?
Red Bull Salzburg have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Vienna 48%, Red Bull Salzburg 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Austria Vienna) and 44% (Red Bull Salzburg).
On the defensive side: Austria Vienna keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Red Bull Salzburg in 44%; Red Bull Salzburg in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Vienna home games / Red Bull Salzburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Austria Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Austria Vienna's recent matches and 44% of Red Bull Salzburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Austria Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Austria Vienna's recent games and 44% of Red Bull Salzburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Austria Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Austria Vienna's recent matches and 68% of Red Bull Salzburg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Red Bull Salzburg defy the odds to beat Austria Vienna 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Red Bull Salzburg beat Austria Vienna 0-1 at Generali Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Vienna 1.63 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 0.73 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Austria Vienna fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Vienna attack 1.27 / defence 0.83 against Red Bull Salzburg attack 0.75 / defence 0.93, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Vienna 56% | Draw 31% | Red Bull Salzburg 13%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Red Bull Salzburg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Vienna 52%, Red Bull Salzburg 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Vienna's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Vienna 1.78 PPG, Red Bull Salzburg 1.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Red Bull Salzburg win broke the near-deadlock. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.68 scoring average — below par going forward. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.