FC BW Linz 1-2 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC BW Linz at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as FC BW Linz face Sturm Graz.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC BW Linz host Sturm Graz at Hofmann Personal Stadion in Bundesliga (matchday 8). Kick-off is Saturday 28 September 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Guide
FC BW Linz — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
FC BW Linz at home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Sturm Graz stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Sturm Graz have gone 5W 4D 1L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC BW Linz 1.60 PPG, Sturm Graz 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, FC BW Linz have won 0, Sturm Graz 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.5 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 3 Dec 2023, ended FC BW Linz 1–1 Sturm Graz — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
FC BW Linz trading profile (last 39 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Sturm Graz trading profile (last 39 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC BW Linz 49% versus Sturm Graz 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC BW Linz 46% | Sturm Graz 46%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: FC BW Linz surrender their half-time lead 36% of the time, while Sturm Graz have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 60% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC BW Linz 1.35 xG and Sturm Graz 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC BW Linz attack 1.031 / defence 0.696 | Sturm Graz attack 1.090 / defence 0.814. League average goals — home 1.615 / away 1.195. FC BW Linz have a tight defence (rating 0.696), which is pulling Sturm Graz's projected output down. Data: built from FC BW Linz's last 29 games and Sturm Graz's last 29.
Result probabilities: FC BW Linz 47% | Draw 28% | Sturm Graz 25%. Fair-value odds: FC BW Linz 2.13 | Draw 3.53 | Sturm Graz 4.04. FC BW Linz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC BW Linz as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC BW Linz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 61% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: FC BW Linz 50% (last 10 home games) | Sturm Graz 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 8 | Venue: Hofmann Personal Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 28 September 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC BW Linz 47% | Draw 28% | Sturm Graz 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG FC BW Linz 1.35 / Sturm Graz 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: FC BW Linz attack 1.031 / def 0.696 | Sturm Graz attack 1.090 / def 0.814 | league avg home 1.615 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: FC BW Linz (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
FC BW Linz xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Sturm Graz xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz FAQs
What time does FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz kick off?
FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 28 September 2024 at Hofmann Personal Stadion.
What was the final score in FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz?
FC BW Linz 1 - 2 Sturm Graz.
Where is FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz being played?
The match is being played at Hofmann Personal Stadion.
What competition is FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz part of?
FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 8) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model gives FC BW Linz a 47% chance of winning, Sturm Graz a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FC BW Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both FC BW Linz and Sturm Graz will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC BW Linz's attack at 1.03x the league average against Sturm Graz's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sturm Graz's attack versus FC BW Linz's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC BW Linz's last 29 games and Sturm Graz's last 29 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC BW Linz Win
47%
2.13
28%
3.53
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
FC BW Linz xG
Total xG
2.26
0.91
Sturm Graz xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
19%
5.29
6%
15.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 9.4 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.8 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are FC BW Linz and Sturm Graz expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for FC BW Linz and 0.91 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 39 outings, FC BW Linz have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 11W 12D 16L record — D-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Sturm Graz's form line: 23W 11D 5L from 39 games, 2.05 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-D.
Put side by side, Sturm Graz are the form team by 0.90 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC BW Linz.
Venue Form
On home soil, FC BW Linz have posted 1.53 PPG from their last 19 home games (7W 8D 4L).
On the road, Sturm Graz have gone 10W 7D 2L from their last 19 away games — 1.95 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC BW Linz are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Sturm Graz are on 1.74 scored and 0.82 conceded.
Defensively: Sturm Graz in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC BW Linz
Early Season
Sturm Graz
Early Season
FC BW Linz (Home) vs Sturm Graz (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC BW Linz
Early Season
Sturm Graz
Early Season
❓ FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz Form FAQs
What form are FC BW Linz and Sturm Graz in coming into this match?
FC BW Linz have gone 11W 12D 16L in their last 39 games (1.15 PPG), while Sturm Graz have gone 23W 11D 5L in their last 39 (2.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC BW Linz at home or Sturm Graz away?
Sturm Graz's away record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC BW Linz at home: 1.53 PPG; Sturm Graz away: 1.95 PPG.
Have FC BW Linz or Sturm Graz been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC BW Linz have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Sturm Graz in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from August 2023. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 22 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Sturm Graz have won the most recent 6 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Aug 2023, when Sturm Graz won Sturm Graz 4-1 FC BW Linz.
FC BW Linz's record when hosting Sturm Graz specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
FC BW Linz
1
Draws
7
Sturm Graz
Recent Meetings
❓ FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC BW Linz and Sturm Graz?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, FC BW Linz have won 0, Sturm Graz have won 7, and 1 has been drawn.
When did FC BW Linz and Sturm Graz last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 February 2026: Sturm Graz 1-0 FC BW Linz.
Who has won more matches between FC BW Linz and Sturm Graz?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC BW Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC BW Linz 47%, Sturm Graz 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (FC BW Linz) and 58% (Sturm Graz).
On the defensive side: FC BW Linz keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Sturm Graz in 32%; FC BW Linz have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC BW Linz home games / Sturm Graz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC BW Linz and Sturm Graz matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of FC BW Linz's games and 63% of Sturm Graz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FC BW Linz and Sturm Graz matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of FC BW Linz's recent games and 58% of Sturm Graz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC BW Linz and Sturm Graz matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of FC BW Linz's recent matches and 90% of Sturm Graz's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sturm Graz defy the odds to beat FC BW Linz 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat FC BW Linz 1-2 at Hofmann Personal Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC BW Linz 1.35 xG and Sturm Graz 0.91 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sturm Graz outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC BW Linz attack 1.03 / defence 0.70 against Sturm Graz attack 1.09 / defence 0.81, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC BW Linz 47% | Draw 28% | Sturm Graz 25%, with FC BW Linz to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Sturm Graz win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC BW Linz 46%, Sturm Graz 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC BW Linz's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Sturm Graz's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.15. Form held, and they took the win. FC BW Linz (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.