FC BW Linz 1-0 Lask Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC BW Linz at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC BW Linz vs Lask Linz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Hofmann Personal Stadion plays host to FC BW Linz versus Lask Linz in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Saturday 14 September 2024 at 18:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC BW Linz have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC BW Linz have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC BW Linz at Hofmann Personal Stadion this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Lask Linz (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Lask Linz have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lask Linz's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for FC BW Linz against 1.30 for Lask Linz. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: FC BW Linz 1W, Lask Linz 1W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2023, ended 2–0 with FC BW Linz winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
FC BW Linz — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Lask Linz — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC BW Linz 51% versus Lask Linz 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC BW Linz 49% | Lask Linz 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC BW Linz 1.73 xG and Lask Linz 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC BW Linz attack 1.098 / defence 0.779 | Lask Linz attack 1.045 / defence 0.935. League average goals — home 1.689 / away 1.201. FC BW Linz's defence rating of 0.779 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 27 FC BW Linz games / 27 Lask Linz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC BW Linz 53% | Draw 28% | Lask Linz 19%. Fair-value odds: FC BW Linz 1.89 | Draw 3.57 | Lask Linz 5.26. FC BW Linz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC BW Linz are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC BW Linz if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC BW Linz 60% | Lask Linz 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC BW Linz vs Lask Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Hofmann Personal Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Sep 2024, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC BW Linz 53% | Draw 28% | Lask Linz 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG FC BW Linz 1.73 / Lask Linz 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: FC BW Linz attack 1.098 / def 0.779 | Lask Linz attack 1.045 / def 0.935 | league avg home 1.689 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: FC BW Linz (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
FC BW Linz xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Lask Linz xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC BW Linz vs Lask Linz kick off?
FC BW Linz vs Lask Linz kicked off at 18:30 on Saturday 14 September 2024 at Hofmann Personal Stadion.
What was the final score in FC BW Linz vs Lask Linz?
FC BW Linz 1 - 0 Lask Linz.
Where is FC BW Linz vs Lask Linz being played?
The match is being played at Hofmann Personal Stadion.
What competition is FC BW Linz vs Lask Linz part of?
FC BW Linz vs Lask Linz is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win FC BW Linz vs Lask Linz?
Our statistical model gives FC BW Linz a 53% chance of winning, Lask Linz a 19% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FC BW Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC BW Linz vs Lask Linz?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both FC BW Linz and Lask Linz will score (BTTS).
Will FC BW Linz vs Lask Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC BW Linz and Lask Linz?
Record (2 meetings): FC BW Linz 1W | Draws 0 | Lask Linz 1W.
What form are FC BW Linz and Lask Linz in?
FC BW Linz (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Lask Linz (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates FC BW Linz's attack at 1.10x the league average against Lask Linz's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lask Linz's attack (1.04x) against FC BW Linz's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 2-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC BW Linz Win
53%
1.88
28%
3.59
19%
5.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
FC BW Linz xG
Total xG
2.71
0.98
Lask Linz xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
5.24
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
18%
5.66
Win to Nil
20%
5.01
3%
29.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 11.5 | 11.3 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC BW Linz vs Lask Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are FC BW Linz and Lask Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for FC BW Linz and 0.98 for Lask Linz, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for FC BW Linz vs Lask Linz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC BW Linz's recent record stands at 9W 12D 16L from 37 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for FC BW Linz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lask Linz, meanwhile, have gone 15W 10D 12L across 37 games — 1.49 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Lask Linz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lask Linz by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC BW Linz heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, FC BW Linz have managed 6W 8D 4L from 18 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lask Linz's away record stands at 6W 6D 6L across 18 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
FC BW Linz are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Lask Linz are on 1.30 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Defensively: Lask Linz in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC BW Linz
Early Season
Lask Linz
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC BW Linz and Lask Linz in coming into this match?
FC BW Linz have gone 9W 12D 16L in their last 37 games (1.05 PPG), while Lask Linz have gone 15W 10D 12L in their last 37 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC BW Linz at home or Lask Linz away?
FC BW Linz's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC BW Linz at home: 1.44 PPG; Lask Linz away: 1.33 PPG.
Have FC BW Linz or Lask Linz been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC BW Linz have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Lask Linz in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 1 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Lask Linz go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC BW Linz have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Lask Linz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
FC BW Linz
1
Draws
3
Lask Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC BW Linz and Lask Linz?
From 6 meetings on record, FC BW Linz have won 2, Lask Linz have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC BW Linz and Lask Linz last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2025, when FC BW Linz 0-1 Lask Linz.
Who has won more matches between FC BW Linz and Lask Linz?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC BW Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC BW Linz 50%, Lask Linz 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (FC BW Linz) and 44% (Lask Linz).
On the defensive side: FC BW Linz keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Lask Linz in 33%; FC BW Linz have failed to score in 28% of games; Lask Linz in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC BW Linz home games / Lask Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC BW Linz play Lask Linz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of FC BW Linz's recent matches and 50% of Lask Linz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC BW Linz vs Lask Linz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of FC BW Linz's recent games and 44% of Lask Linz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC BW Linz and Lask Linz tend to score early?
FC BW Linz have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Lask Linz in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC BW Linz edge out Lask Linz 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC BW Linz beat Lask Linz 1-0 at Hofmann Personal Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC BW Linz 1.73 xG and Lask Linz 0.98 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lask Linz landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC BW Linz attack 1.10 / defence 0.78 against Lask Linz attack 1.04 / defence 0.94, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC BW Linz 53% | Draw 28% | Lask Linz 19%, with FC BW Linz to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC BW Linz 49%, Lask Linz 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC BW Linz's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Lask Linz's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Lask Linz arrived the stronger side — 1.49 PPG against 1.05. Form was overturned, with FC BW Linz winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC BW Linz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Lask Linz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.