Austria Vienna 1-0 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Austria Vienna at 56% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
TSV Hartberg travel to Generali Arena to take on Austria Vienna in Bundesliga (matchday 14). The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 November 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Austria Vienna have gone 6W 2D 2L — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Austria Vienna have gone 7W 2D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
TSV Hartberg — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
TSV Hartberg away from home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Austria Vienna) versus 1.60 (TSV Hartberg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Austria Vienna's last 10 home games and TSV Hartberg's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
Austria Vienna hold a clear advantage across the 4 H2H matches in our data, with 3 wins compared to 0 for TSV Hartberg and 1 draw.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Aug 2024, ended Austria Vienna 1–1 TSV Hartberg — a draw.
The head-to-head data gives Austria Vienna an edge — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Data
Austria Vienna trading profile (last 46 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
TSV Hartberg trading profile (last 46 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Vienna 46% versus TSV Hartberg 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Vienna 48% | TSV Hartberg 63%). Note also that TSV Hartberg surrender HT leads in 40% of cases while Austria Vienna recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Vienna 1.91 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Vienna attack 1.223 / defence 0.896 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.112 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.545 / away 1.087. Data: built from Austria Vienna's last 35 games and TSV Hartberg's last 34.
Result probabilities: Austria Vienna 56% | Draw 23% | TSV Hartberg 21%. Fair-value odds: Austria Vienna 1.79 | Draw 4.27 | TSV Hartberg 4.84. The model has a clear lean to Austria Vienna (56%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Austria Vienna as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. The head-to-head data (Austria Vienna 3 wins from 4 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.99 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Austria Vienna's last 10 home games and TSV Hartberg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Austria Vienna 70% (last 10 home games) | TSV Hartberg 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 14 | Venue: Generali Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 24 November 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Vienna 56% | Draw 23% | TSV Hartberg 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Austria Vienna 1.91 / TSV Hartberg 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Vienna attack 1.223 / def 0.896 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.112 / def 1.009 | league avg home 1.545 / away 1.087 • Poisson stance: Austria Vienna (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Austria Vienna xG
Expected Goals
1.08
TSV Hartberg xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg FAQs
What time does Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 24 November 2024 at Generali Arena.
What was the final score in Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Austria Vienna 1 - 0 TSV Hartberg.
Where is Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Generali Arena.
What competition is Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 14) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Austria Vienna a 56% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 21% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Austria Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Austria Vienna's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against TSV Hartberg's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.91. The same calculation in reverse, TSV Hartberg's attack versus Austria Vienna's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Austria Vienna's last 35 games and TSV Hartberg's last 34 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Vienna Win
56%
1.79
23%
4.27
21%
4.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Austria Vienna xG
Total xG
2.99
1.08
TSV Hartberg xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
4.84
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
15%
6.72
Win to Nil
19%
5.28
3%
32.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 10.4 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Austria Vienna and 1.08 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Austria Vienna's recent record stands at 21W 13D 12L from 46 games, a 1.65 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five.
TSV Hartberg, meanwhile, have gone 16W 13D 17L across 46 games — 1.33 PPG, with W-L-W-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Austria Vienna on 1.65 PPG, TSV Hartberg on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Austria Vienna have managed 12W 9D 1L from their last 22 home games — 2.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
TSV Hartberg's away record stands at 7W 7D 8L across their last 22 away games, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Austria Vienna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Austria Vienna are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.43 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: TSV Hartberg in 63%.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Vienna
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
Austria Vienna (Home) vs TSV Hartberg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Austria Vienna
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
❓ Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg Form FAQs
What form are Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Austria Vienna have gone 21W 13D 12L in their last 46 games (1.65 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 16W 13D 17L in their last 46 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Vienna at home or TSV Hartberg away?
Austria Vienna's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Vienna at home: 2.05 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Austria Vienna or TSV Hartberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Austria Vienna have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, TSV Hartberg in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from February 2024. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 16 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Austria Vienna have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Austria Vienna's record when hosting TSV Hartberg specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Austria Vienna
1
Draws
2
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Austria Vienna have won 7, TSV Hartberg have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 August 2026: TSV Hartberg 0-2 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Austria Vienna see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Vienna 50%, TSV Hartberg 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Austria Vienna and 68% for TSV Hartberg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Austria Vienna keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Austria Vienna have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Vienna home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Austria Vienna's games and 68% of TSV Hartberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Austria Vienna's matches and 68% of TSV Hartberg's.
Do Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 59% of Austria Vienna's recent matches and 82% of TSV Hartberg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Austria Vienna edge out TSV Hartberg 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Vienna beat TSV Hartberg 1-0 at Generali Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Vienna 1.91 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.08 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Austria Vienna fell 0.9 short of their projected output. TSV Hartberg landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Vienna attack 1.22 / defence 0.90 against TSV Hartberg attack 1.11 / defence 1.01, drawn from 35/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Vienna 56% | Draw 23% | TSV Hartberg 21%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Vienna 48%, TSV Hartberg 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Vienna's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Vienna 1.65 PPG, TSV Hartberg 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Vienna win broke the near-deadlock. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.