Austria Vienna 2-1 Rapid Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Austria Vienna at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Generali Arena plays host to Austria Vienna versus Rapid Vienna in Bundesliga (matchday 18). Kick-off: Sunday 16 February 2025 at 16:00 UK time.
Form
Austria Vienna (all games): 8W 1D 1L across their last 10 — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Austria Vienna at home: 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Rapid Vienna have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: W D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Rapid Vienna away from home: 2W 6D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Austria Vienna. A 1.10 PPG lead over Rapid Vienna (2.50 vs 1.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Rapid Vienna edge it 2 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 22 Sep 2024, ended Austria Vienna 1–2 Rapid Vienna — a Rapid Vienna win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Austria Vienna half-time and goal-timing data (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Rapid Vienna half-time and goal-timing data (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Vienna 47% versus Rapid Vienna 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Vienna 51% | Rapid Vienna 37%). Note also that Rapid Vienna surrender HT leads in 44% of cases while Austria Vienna recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Vienna 1.53 xG and Rapid Vienna 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Vienna attack 1.244 / defence 0.813 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.938 / defence 0.899. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.164. Data: built from Austria Vienna's last 39 games and Rapid Vienna's last 39.
Result probabilities: Austria Vienna 49% | Draw 33% | Rapid Vienna 18%. Fair-value odds: Austria Vienna 2.05 | Draw 3.03 | Rapid Vienna 5.51. Austria Vienna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Austria Vienna as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Austria Vienna if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 56% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Austria Vienna 60% (last 10 home games) | Rapid Vienna 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 18 | Venue: Generali Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 16 February 2025 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Vienna 49% | Draw 33% | Rapid Vienna 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Austria Vienna 1.53 / Rapid Vienna 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Vienna attack 1.244 / def 0.813 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.938 / def 0.899 | league avg home 1.372 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Austria Vienna (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Austria Vienna xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Rapid Vienna xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna FAQs
What time does Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna kick off?
Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 16 February 2025 at Generali Arena.
What was the final score in Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna?
Austria Vienna 2 - 1 Rapid Vienna.
Where is Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Generali Arena.
What competition is Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna part of?
Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 18) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Austria Vienna a 49% chance of winning, Rapid Vienna a 18% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Austria Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Austria Vienna and Rapid Vienna will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Austria Vienna's attack rating (1.24) and Rapid Vienna's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rapid Vienna's attack (0.94x) against Austria Vienna's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from Austria Vienna's last 39 games and Rapid Vienna's last 39 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 2-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Vienna Win
49%
2.05
33%
3.03
18%
5.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Austria Vienna xG
Total xG
2.42
0.89
Rapid Vienna xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
5.51
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
22%
4.64
Win to Nil
20%
4.97
4%
25.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.6 | 12.1 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.3 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Austria Vienna and Rapid Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Austria Vienna and 0.89 for Rapid Vienna, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Austria Vienna's recent record stands at 24W 14D 11L from 49 games, a 1.76 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five.
Rapid Vienna, meanwhile, have gone 18W 19D 12L across 49 games — 1.49 PPG, with W-D-L-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.76 PPG for Austria Vienna against 1.49 for Rapid Vienna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Austria Vienna have managed 14W 9D 1L from their last 24 home games — 2.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rapid Vienna's away record stands at 8W 11D 5L across their last 24 away games, a 1.46 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Austria Vienna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Austria Vienna are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Rapid Vienna are on 1.39 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Austria Vienna have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Vienna
Blended
Rapid Vienna
Blended
Austria Vienna (Home) vs Rapid Vienna (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Austria Vienna
Blended
Rapid Vienna
Blended
❓ Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna Form FAQs
What form are Austria Vienna and Rapid Vienna in coming into this match?
Austria Vienna have gone 24W 14D 11L in their last 49 games (1.76 PPG), while Rapid Vienna have gone 18W 19D 12L in their last 49 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Vienna at home or Rapid Vienna away?
Austria Vienna's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Vienna at home: 2.12 PPG; Rapid Vienna away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Austria Vienna or Rapid Vienna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Austria Vienna have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Rapid Vienna in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to February 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 1 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rapid Vienna won Rapid Vienna 3-0 Austria Vienna on 25 Feb 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Austria Vienna have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Rapid Vienna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Austria Vienna
1
Draws
5
Rapid Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and Rapid Vienna?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Austria Vienna have won 4, Rapid Vienna have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Austria Vienna and Rapid Vienna last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 November 2026: Austria Vienna 0-2 Rapid Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Austria Vienna and Rapid Vienna?
Rapid Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Austria Vienna see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Vienna 46%, Rapid Vienna 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Austria Vienna) and 29% (Rapid Vienna).
On the defensive side: Austria Vienna keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Rapid Vienna in 38%; Rapid Vienna in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Vienna home games / Rapid Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Austria Vienna and Rapid Vienna matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Austria Vienna's recent matches and 42% of Rapid Vienna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Austria Vienna and Rapid Vienna matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Austria Vienna's recent games and 29% of Rapid Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Austria Vienna and Rapid Vienna matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 58% of Austria Vienna's recent matches and 62% of Rapid Vienna's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Austria Vienna edge out Rapid Vienna 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Vienna beat Rapid Vienna 2-1 at Generali Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Vienna 1.53 xG and Rapid Vienna 0.89 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Vienna attack 1.24 / defence 0.81 against Rapid Vienna attack 0.94 / defence 0.90, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Vienna 49% | Draw 33% | Rapid Vienna 18%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Vienna 51%, Rapid Vienna 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Vienna's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Vienna 1.76 PPG, Rapid Vienna 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Vienna win broke the near-deadlock. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.