Austria Vienna 2-1 Grazer AK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Austria Vienna at 71% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Austria Vienna vs Grazer AK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Grazer AK travel to Generali Arena to take on Austria Vienna in Bundesliga (matchday 9). The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 October 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Austria Vienna stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Austria Vienna have gone 5W 4D 1L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 8 games, Grazer AK have recorded 0W 4D 4L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.25 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings (12%). Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Grazer AK away from home: 0W 2D 2L from their last 4 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Austria Vienna are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.00 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Austria Vienna's games and 75% of Grazer AK's (from Austria Vienna's last 10 home games and Grazer AK's last 4 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Austria Vienna trading profile (last 8 games, 3 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
Grazer AK trading profile (last 8 games, 3 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Austria Vienna 75% and Grazer AK 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Vienna 50% | Grazer AK 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Vienna 2.71 xG and Grazer AK 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Vienna attack 1.257 / defence 0.987 | Grazer AK attack 0.925 / defence 1.402. League average goals — home 1.536 / away 1.198. Austria Vienna carry an above-average attack rating of 1.257 — their 2.71 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Grazer AK's defence rating of 1.402 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Austria Vienna's projected output up. Data: built from Austria Vienna's last 30 games and Grazer AK's last 8.
Result probabilities: Austria Vienna 71% | Draw 16% | Grazer AK 13%. Fair-value odds: Austria Vienna 1.40 | Draw 6.31 | Grazer AK 7.80. The model has a clear lean to Austria Vienna (71%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.80. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.80 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (2.71 / 1.09) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Austria Vienna as the most likely outcome at 71% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.80 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Austria Vienna's last 10 home games and Grazer AK's last 4 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Austria Vienna 60% (last 10 home games) | Grazer AK 75% (last 4 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Vienna vs Grazer AK | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 9 | Venue: Generali Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 5 October 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Vienna 71% | Draw 16% | Grazer AK 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% (Under 27%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Austria Vienna 2.71 / Grazer AK 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Vienna attack 1.257 / def 0.987 | Grazer AK attack 0.925 / def 1.402 | league avg home 1.536 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Austria Vienna (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.71
Austria Vienna xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Grazer AK xG
62%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Austria Vienna vs Grazer AK FAQs
What time does Austria Vienna vs Grazer AK kick off?
Austria Vienna vs Grazer AK kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 5 October 2024 at Generali Arena.
What was the final score in Austria Vienna vs Grazer AK?
Austria Vienna 2 - 1 Grazer AK.
Where is Austria Vienna vs Grazer AK being played?
The match is being played at Generali Arena.
What competition is Austria Vienna vs Grazer AK part of?
Austria Vienna vs Grazer AK is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 9) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Vienna vs Grazer AK?
Our statistical model gives Austria Vienna a 71% chance of winning, Grazer AK a 13% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Austria Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Vienna vs Grazer AK?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Austria Vienna and Grazer AK will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Austria Vienna vs Grazer AK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Austria Vienna's attack rating (1.26) and Grazer AK's defence rating (1.40), the model arrives at 2.71 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Grazer AK's attack versus Austria Vienna's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Austria Vienna's last 30 games and Grazer AK's last 8 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (8.2%), 3-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Vienna Win
71%
1.40
16%
6.31
13%
7.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.2%
Home win
3 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.71
Austria Vienna xG
Total xG
3.80
1.09
Grazer AK xG
1.40
71%
Home win
6.31
16%
Draw
7.80
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
7%
14.98
Win to Nil
24%
4.19
1%
116.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.0 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Austria Vienna vs Grazer AK Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Vienna vs Grazer AK?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Austria Vienna and Grazer AK expected to score?
The model projects 2.71 expected goals for Austria Vienna and 1.09 for Grazer AK, a combined total of 3.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Vienna vs Grazer AK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 8 outings, Austria Vienna have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 2W 3D 3L record — W-D-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Grazer AK's form line: 0W 4D 4L from 8 games, 0.50 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-L.
Put side by side, Austria Vienna are the form team by 0.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Grazer AK.
Venue Form
On home soil, Austria Vienna have posted 2.33 PPG from their last 3 home games (2W 1D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — Austria Vienna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Grazer AK have gone 0W 1D 2L from their last 3 away games — 0.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Austria Vienna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Austria Vienna are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Grazer AK are on 1.25 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Vienna have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Grazer AK in 75%.
Last 8 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Vienna
Blended
Grazer AK
Blended
Austria Vienna (Home) vs Grazer AK (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Austria Vienna
Blended
Grazer AK
Blended
❓ Austria Vienna vs Grazer AK Form FAQs
What form are Austria Vienna and Grazer AK in coming into this match?
Austria Vienna have gone 2W 3D 3L in their last 8 games (1.12 PPG), while Grazer AK have gone 0W 4D 4L in their last 8 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Vienna at home or Grazer AK away?
Austria Vienna's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Vienna at home: 2.33 PPG; Grazer AK away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 5 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2024. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 19 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Austria Vienna's record when hosting Grazer AK specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Austria Vienna
2
Draws
0
Grazer AK
Recent Meetings
❓ Austria Vienna vs Grazer AK H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and Grazer AK?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Austria Vienna have won 3, Grazer AK have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Austria Vienna and Grazer AK last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 September 2026: Grazer AK 2-2 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Austria Vienna and Grazer AK?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Grazer AK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 100% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Austria Vienna at 100%, Grazer AK at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Austria Vienna and 67% for Grazer AK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Vienna home games / Grazer AK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Austria Vienna vs Grazer AK Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Austria Vienna and Grazer AK matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Austria Vienna's games and 100% of Grazer AK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Austria Vienna and Grazer AK matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Austria Vienna's matches and 67% of Grazer AK's.
Do Austria Vienna and Grazer AK matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Austria Vienna's recent matches and 100% of Grazer AK's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Austria Vienna edge out Grazer AK 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Vienna beat Grazer AK 2-1 at Generali Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Vienna 2.71 xG and Grazer AK 1.09 xG, a combined 3.80. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Vienna attack 1.26 / defence 0.99 against Grazer AK attack 0.93 / defence 1.40, drawn from 30/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Vienna 71% | Draw 16% | Grazer AK 13%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 71%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Vienna 50%, Grazer AK 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Vienna's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Grazer AK's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Austria Vienna arrived the stronger side — 1.12 PPG against 0.50. That form edge translated into the three points. Grazer AK (home/away splits) conceded 2 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.