Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates TSV Hartberg at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Austria Lustenau host TSV Hartberg at Planet Pure Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 11 December 2026 at 18:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Austria Lustenau — All Games: 2W 2D 5L from 9 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.89 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.22 goals per game and conceding 2.11 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.11 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Austria Lustenau, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Austria Lustenau's home record at Planet Pure Stadion: 2W 1D 2L from 5 Bundesliga appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.89 — Austria Lustenau are significantly better at Planet Pure Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, TSV Hartberg have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, TSV Hartberg have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour TSV Hartberg — 0.51 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.89). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Austria Lustenau have won 3, TSV Hartberg 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 4.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Oct 2026, ended 3–4 with TSV Hartberg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Austria Lustenau in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
TSV Hartberg in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Austria Lustenau 67% and TSV Hartberg 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Austria Lustenau 67% | TSV Hartberg 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Lustenau 1.13 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Lustenau attack 0.671 / defence 1.407 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.039 / defence 0.929. League average goals — home 1.806 / away 1.304. Austria Lustenau's attack strength of 0.671 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 9 Austria Lustenau games / 31 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Lustenau 20% | Draw 28% | TSV Hartberg 53%. Fair-value odds: Austria Lustenau 5.00 | Draw 3.57 | TSV Hartberg 1.89. TSV Hartberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.13 / 1.91) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, TSV Hartberg are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 4.1 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. This conflicts with form data: Austria Lustenau 40% | TSV Hartberg 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Planet Pure Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 11 Dec 2026, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Lustenau 20% | Draw 28% | TSV Hartberg 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Austria Lustenau 1.13 / TSV Hartberg 1.91 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Lustenau attack 0.671 / def 1.407 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.039 / def 0.929 | league avg home 1.806 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Austria Lustenau xG
Expected Goals
1.91
TSV Hartberg xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg is scheduled to kick off at 18:30 on Friday 11 December 2026 at Planet Pure Stadion.
Where is Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Planet Pure Stadion.
What competition is Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Austria Lustenau a 20% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 53% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Austria Lustenau and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Lustenau and TSV Hartberg?
Record (7 meetings): Austria Lustenau 3W | Draws 2 | TSV Hartberg 2W.
What form are Austria Lustenau and TSV Hartberg in?
Austria Lustenau (all comps): 2W-2D-5L in 9 | 0.89 PPG | GF 1.22 / GA 2.11 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Austria Lustenau's attack rating (0.67) and TSV Hartberg's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, TSV Hartberg's attack versus Austria Lustenau's defence, projects 1.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
20%
5.12
28%
3.64
53%
1.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Austria Lustenau xG
Total xG
3.03
1.91
TSV Hartberg xG
5.12
20%
Home win
3.64
28%
Draw
1.89
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
15%
6.74
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
3%
34.47
17%
5.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 9.2 | 8.8 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Austria Lustenau and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Austria Lustenau and 1.91 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Austria Lustenau come into this having played 9 games, going 2W 2D 5L for 0.89 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Austria Lustenau is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, TSV Hartberg sit at 1.22 PPG from 9 outings (3W 2D 4L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Austria Lustenau on 0.89 PPG, TSV Hartberg on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Austria Lustenau's home form reads 2W 0D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.89 PPG overall — Austria Lustenau are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, TSV Hartberg have taken 1.00 points per game from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Austria Lustenau come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Austria Lustenau are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.67 scored and 2.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Lustenau have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; TSV Hartberg in 67%.
Last 9 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Lustenau
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Lustenau and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Austria Lustenau have gone 2W 2D 5L in their last 9 games (0.89 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 3W 2D 4L in their last 9 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Lustenau at home or TSV Hartberg away?
Austria Lustenau's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Lustenau at home: 1.50 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Austria Lustenau and TSV Hartberg runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 11 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
TSV Hartberg go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Jun 2023, when Austria Lustenau won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Austria Lustenau's record when hosting TSV Hartberg specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Austria Lustenau
2
Draws
2
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Lustenau and TSV Hartberg?
From 7 meetings on record, Austria Lustenau have won 3, TSV Hartberg have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Austria Lustenau and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 11 October 2026, when TSV Hartberg 4-3 Austria Lustenau.
Who has won more matches between Austria Lustenau and TSV Hartberg?
Austria Lustenau have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Austria Lustenau are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Lustenau 25%, TSV Hartberg 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Austria Lustenau and 75% for TSV Hartberg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Austria Lustenau have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Lustenau home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Lustenau play TSV Hartberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Austria Lustenau's recent matches and 75% of TSV Hartberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Austria Lustenau's matches and 75% of TSV Hartberg's.
Do Austria Lustenau and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
Austria Lustenau have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.