Sharjah FC 0-1 Al Bataeh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sharjah FC (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sharjah FC face Al Bataeh.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sharjah Stadium plays host to Sharjah FC versus Al Bataeh in Pro League, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Sunday 23 February 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Sharjah FC's overall Pro League record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Sharjah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sharjah FC have posted 8W 2D 0L at Sharjah Stadium — 2.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sharjah Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al Bataeh (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Bataeh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Bataeh's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Sharjah FC's 2.20 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Al Bataeh's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Across 5 previous meetings, Sharjah FC are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 2 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2024, ended 2–0 with Sharjah FC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Sharjah FC and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Sharjah FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Al Bataeh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sharjah FC 63% and Al Bataeh 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sharjah FC 56% | Al Bataeh 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sharjah FC 1.48 xG and Al Bataeh 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sharjah FC attack 0.958 / defence 0.604 | Al Bataeh attack 0.973 / defence 0.922. League average goals — home 1.680 / away 1.418. Sharjah FC's defence rating of 0.604 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 41 Sharjah FC games / 42 Al Bataeh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sharjah FC 53% | Draw 26% | Al Bataeh 21%. Fair-value odds: Sharjah FC 1.89 | Draw 3.85 | Al Bataeh 4.76. Sharjah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sharjah FC as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sharjah FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sharjah FC 30% | Al Bataeh 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sharjah FC vs Al Bataeh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Sharjah Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Feb 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sharjah FC 53% | Draw 26% | Al Bataeh 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 44% | xG Sharjah FC 1.48 / Al Bataeh 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Sharjah FC attack 0.958 / def 0.604 | Al Bataeh attack 0.973 / def 0.922 | league avg home 1.680 / away 1.418 • Poisson stance: Sharjah FC (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Sharjah FC xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Al Bataeh xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sharjah FC vs Al Bataeh kick off?
Sharjah FC vs Al Bataeh kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 23 February 2025 at Sharjah Stadium.
What was the final score in Sharjah FC vs Al Bataeh?
Sharjah FC 0 - 1 Al Bataeh.
Where is Sharjah FC vs Al Bataeh being played?
The match is being played at Sharjah Stadium.
What competition is Sharjah FC vs Al Bataeh part of?
Sharjah FC vs Al Bataeh is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Sharjah FC vs Al Bataeh?
Our statistical model gives Sharjah FC a 53% chance of winning, Al Bataeh a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sharjah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sharjah FC vs Al Bataeh?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Sharjah FC and Al Bataeh will score (BTTS).
Will Sharjah FC vs Al Bataeh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Al Bataeh?
Record (5 meetings): Sharjah FC 3W | Draws 2 | Al Bataeh 0W.
What form are Sharjah FC and Al Bataeh in?
Sharjah FC (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Al Bataeh (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sharjah FC's attack at 0.96x the league average against Al Bataeh's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Bataeh's attack (0.97x) against Sharjah FC's defence (0.60x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 41/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sharjah FC Win
53%
1.90
26%
3.79
21%
4.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Sharjah FC xG
Total xG
2.32
0.83
Al Bataeh xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
4.73
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
23%
4.38
5%
20.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.6 | 12.2 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.0 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sharjah FC vs Al Bataeh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Sharjah FC and Al Bataeh expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Sharjah FC and 0.83 for Al Bataeh, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Sharjah FC vs Al Bataeh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 41 outings, Sharjah FC have picked up 1.93 PPG on a 22W 13D 6L record — D-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sharjah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Bataeh's form line: 12W 10D 19L from 41 games, 1.12 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-D. The sample for Al Bataeh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sharjah FC are the form team by 0.81 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Bataeh.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sharjah FC have posted 2.00 PPG from 20 outings (11W 7D 2L).
On the road, Al Bataeh have gone 7W 4D 9L from 20 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sharjah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sharjah FC are averaging 1.98 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Al Bataeh are on 1.46 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sharjah FC have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Al Bataeh in 71%.
Last 41 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sharjah FC
Blended
Al Bataeh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sharjah FC and Al Bataeh in coming into this match?
Sharjah FC have gone 22W 13D 6L in their last 41 games (1.93 PPG), while Al Bataeh have gone 12W 10D 19L in their last 41 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sharjah FC at home or Al Bataeh away?
Sharjah FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sharjah FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Al Bataeh away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Sharjah FC or Al Bataeh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Al Bataeh in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sharjah FC won 3-0 on 18 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sharjah FC have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al Bataeh — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Sharjah FC
3
Draws
2
Al Bataeh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Al Bataeh?
From 8 meetings on record, Sharjah FC have won 3, Al Bataeh have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sharjah FC and Al Bataeh last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Al Bataeh 0-0 Sharjah FC.
Who has won more matches between Sharjah FC and Al Bataeh?
Sharjah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Al Bataeh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sharjah FC 55%, Al Bataeh 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for Sharjah FC and 70% for Al Bataeh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sharjah FC keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sharjah FC home games / Al Bataeh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sharjah FC play Al Bataeh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Sharjah FC's games and 65% of Al Bataeh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sharjah FC vs Al Bataeh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Sharjah FC's matches and 70% of Al Bataeh's.
Do Sharjah FC and Al Bataeh tend to score early?
Sharjah FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al Bataeh in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Bataeh defy the odds to beat Sharjah FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Bataeh beat Sharjah FC 0-1 at Sharjah Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sharjah FC 1.48 xG and Al Bataeh 0.83 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sharjah FC fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sharjah FC attack 0.96 / defence 0.60 against Al Bataeh attack 0.97 / defence 0.92, drawn from 41/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sharjah FC 53% | Draw 26% | Al Bataeh 21%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Al Bataeh win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sharjah FC 56%, Al Bataeh 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sharjah FC's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Bataeh's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Sharjah FC arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.12. Form was overturned, with Al Bataeh winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Al Bataeh (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.