Khorfakkan 1-1 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Khorfakkan face Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai make the trip to Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium to face Khorfakkan in Pro League, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Sunday 8 December 2024 at 12:45 UTC.
Form
Khorfakkan (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Khorfakkan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Khorfakkan have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away from home this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are 1.30 PPG clear of Khorfakkan in recent Pro League fixtures (2.50 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Across the last 5 meetings, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to Khorfakkan's 0, with 0 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2024, ended 0–3 with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 5 of 5 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Khorfakkan goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; they lead at the break 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Khorfakkan 73% and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Khorfakkan 73% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 88%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khorfakkan 1.22 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khorfakkan attack 0.739 / defence 1.029 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.386 / defence 0.890. League average goals — home 1.855 / away 1.553. Khorfakkan's attack strength of 0.739 is below the league average — the 1.22 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have an above-average attack strength of 1.386 — the away xG of 2.22 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 34 Khorfakkan games / 33 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khorfakkan 18% | Draw 24% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 58%. Fair-value odds: Khorfakkan 5.56 | Draw 4.17 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.22 / 2.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.44 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Khorfakkan 50% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khorfakkan vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Dec 2024, 12:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khorfakkan 18% | Draw 24% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 65% | xG Khorfakkan 1.22 / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.22 • Poisson strength factors: Khorfakkan attack 0.739 / def 1.029 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.386 / def 0.890 | league avg home 1.855 / away 1.553 • Poisson stance: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Khorfakkan xG
Expected Goals
2.22
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
65%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khorfakkan vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kick off?
Khorfakkan vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kicked off at 12:45 on Sunday 8 December 2024 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What was the final score in Khorfakkan vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Khorfakkan 1 - 1 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Where is Khorfakkan vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai being played?
The match is being played at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What competition is Khorfakkan vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai part of?
Khorfakkan vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Khorfakkan vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our statistical model gives Khorfakkan a 18% chance of winning, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 58% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khorfakkan vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Khorfakkan and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai will score (BTTS).
Will Khorfakkan vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Record (5 meetings): Khorfakkan 0W | Draws 0 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 5W.
What form are Khorfakkan and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in?
Khorfakkan (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Khorfakkan's attack rating (0.74) and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack (1.39x) against Khorfakkan's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 2.22.
These ratings are built from 34/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Win
18%
5.52
24%
4.17
58%
1.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
0 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Khorfakkan xG
Total xG
3.44
2.22
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
5.52
18%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
1.73
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
11%
9.18
30%
3.39
Win to Nil
2%
50.69
17%
5.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 7.1 | 7.9 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 8.7 | 9.6 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 5.3 | 5.9 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khorfakkan vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Khorfakkan and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Khorfakkan and 2.22 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Khorfakkan vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Khorfakkan's recent record stands at 8W 7D 18L from 33 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Khorfakkan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, meanwhile, have gone 24W 5D 4L across 33 games — 2.33 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shabab Al Ahli Dubai by 1.39 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Khorfakkan heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Khorfakkan have managed 4W 3D 8L from 15 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's away record stands at 10W 3D 2L across 15 trips, a 2.20 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Khorfakkan are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 2.15 conceded per game recently; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are on 2.82 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Khorfakkan have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 73%.
Last 33 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khorfakkan
Blended
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khorfakkan and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in coming into this match?
Khorfakkan have gone 8W 7D 18L in their last 33 games (0.94 PPG), while Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 24W 5D 4L in their last 33 (2.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khorfakkan at home or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's away record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khorfakkan at home: 1.00 PPG; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away: 2.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won 4-0 on 23 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Khorfakkan have gone 0W 1D 5L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Khorfakkan
2
Draws
8
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
From 10 meetings on record, Khorfakkan have won 0, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Khorfakkan and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Khorfakkan 1-5 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Who has won more matches between Khorfakkan and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for Khorfakkan, 80% for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Khorfakkan and 80% for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Khorfakkan have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khorfakkan home games / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khorfakkan play Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Khorfakkan's games and 80% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Khorfakkan vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Khorfakkan's matches and 80% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's.
Do Khorfakkan and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai tend to score early?
Khorfakkan have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Khorfakkan and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khorfakkan and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai finished level at 1-1 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khorfakkan 1.22 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.22 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khorfakkan attack 0.74 / defence 1.03 against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.39 / defence 0.89, drawn from 34/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khorfakkan 18% | Draw 24% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 58%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 80% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khorfakkan 73%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 88%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 73%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khorfakkan's trading profile (33 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (33 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.53 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.