Khorfakkan 1-1 Dibba Al Hisn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Khorfakkan at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Khorfakkan vs Dibba Al Hisn encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Khorfakkan and Dibba Al Hisn meet at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 November 2024 at 12:50 UTC.
Current Form
Khorfakkan's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Khorfakkan have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Khorfakkan's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Dibba Al Hisn have collected 0.17 PPG across 6 Pro League outings this season: 0W 1D 5L. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.83 per game is modest, conceding 3.17 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.17 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 83% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Dibba Al Hisn have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dibba Al Hisn's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 2L across 3 road games this term (0.33 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Khorfakkan's 0.80 PPG return is 0.63 points per game ahead of Dibba Al Hisn's 0.17 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Khorfakkan — key trading statistics (6 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Dibba Al Hisn — key trading statistics (6 games): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Khorfakkan 67% and Dibba Al Hisn 83% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Khorfakkan 67% | Dibba Al Hisn 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khorfakkan 1.55 xG and Dibba Al Hisn 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khorfakkan attack 0.713 / defence 1.019 | Dibba Al Hisn attack 0.701 / defence 1.165. League average goals — home 1.862 / away 1.696. Khorfakkan's attack strength of 0.713 is below the league average — the 1.55 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 32 Khorfakkan games / 6 Dibba Al Hisn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khorfakkan 44% | Draw 28% | Dibba Al Hisn 28%. Fair-value odds: Khorfakkan 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Dibba Al Hisn 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Khorfakkan as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Khorfakkan if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Khorfakkan 50% | Dibba Al Hisn 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khorfakkan vs Dibba Al Hisn | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Nov 2024, 12:50 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khorfakkan 44% | Draw 28% | Dibba Al Hisn 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Khorfakkan 1.55 / Dibba Al Hisn 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Khorfakkan attack 0.713 / def 1.019 | Dibba Al Hisn attack 0.701 / def 1.165 | league avg home 1.862 / away 1.696 • Poisson stance: Khorfakkan (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Khorfakkan xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Dibba Al Hisn xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khorfakkan vs Dibba Al Hisn kick off?
Khorfakkan vs Dibba Al Hisn kicked off at 12:50 on Saturday 2 November 2024 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What was the final score in Khorfakkan vs Dibba Al Hisn?
Khorfakkan 1 - 1 Dibba Al Hisn.
Where is Khorfakkan vs Dibba Al Hisn being played?
The match is being played at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What competition is Khorfakkan vs Dibba Al Hisn part of?
Khorfakkan vs Dibba Al Hisn is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Khorfakkan vs Dibba Al Hisn?
Our statistical model gives Khorfakkan a 44% chance of winning, Dibba Al Hisn a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Khorfakkan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khorfakkan vs Dibba Al Hisn?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Khorfakkan and Dibba Al Hisn will score (BTTS).
Will Khorfakkan vs Dibba Al Hisn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Dibba Al Hisn?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Khorfakkan and Dibba Al Hisn in?
Khorfakkan (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Dibba Al Hisn (all comps): 0W-1D-5L in 6 | 0.17 PPG | GF 0.83 / GA 3.17 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Khorfakkan vs Dibba Al Hisn?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Khorfakkan's attacking strength (0.71x league average) is weighed against Dibba Al Hisn's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. Flip it around — Dibba Al Hisn's attack (0.70x) against Khorfakkan's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 32/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Khorfakkan Win
44%
2.29
28%
3.59
28%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Khorfakkan xG
Total xG
2.76
1.21
Dibba Al Hisn xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.51
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
21%
4.69
Win to Nil
13%
7.67
6%
16.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.9 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khorfakkan vs Dibba Al Hisn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Khorfakkan and Dibba Al Hisn expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Khorfakkan and 1.21 for Dibba Al Hisn, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Khorfakkan vs Dibba Al Hisn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Khorfakkan's recent record stands at 2W 0D 4L from 6 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Khorfakkan, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dibba Al Hisn, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 5L across 6 games — 0.17 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Dibba Al Hisn, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Khorfakkan by 0.83 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dibba Al Hisn heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Khorfakkan are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game recently; Dibba Al Hisn are on 0.83 scored and 3.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Khorfakkan have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Dibba Al Hisn in 83%.
Last 6 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khorfakkan
Early Season
Dibba Al Hisn
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khorfakkan and Dibba Al Hisn in coming into this match?
Khorfakkan have gone 2W 0D 4L in their last 6 games (1.00 PPG), while Dibba Al Hisn have gone 0W 1D 5L in their last 6 (0.17 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Khorfakkan
1
Draws
0
Dibba Al Hisn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Dibba Al Hisn?
From 2 meetings on record, Khorfakkan have won 1, Dibba Al Hisn have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Khorfakkan and Dibba Al Hisn last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2025, when Dibba Al Hisn 0-1 Khorfakkan.
Who has won more matches between Khorfakkan and Dibba Al Hisn?
Khorfakkan have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Dibba Al Hisn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Khorfakkan, 83% for Dibba Al Hisn — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Khorfakkan and 67% for Dibba Al Hisn. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Khorfakkan have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khorfakkan home games / Dibba Al Hisn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khorfakkan play Dibba Al Hisn?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Khorfakkan's games and 83% of Dibba Al Hisn's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Khorfakkan vs Dibba Al Hisn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Khorfakkan's matches and 67% of Dibba Al Hisn's.
Do Khorfakkan and Dibba Al Hisn tend to score early?
Khorfakkan have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Dibba Al Hisn in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Khorfakkan and Dibba Al Hisn share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 7, as Khorfakkan and Dibba Al Hisn drew 1-1 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khorfakkan 1.55 xG and Dibba Al Hisn 1.21 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khorfakkan attack 0.71 / defence 1.02 against Dibba Al Hisn attack 0.70 / defence 1.17, drawn from 32/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khorfakkan 44% | Draw 28% | Dibba Al Hisn 28%, with Khorfakkan to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khorfakkan 67%, Dibba Al Hisn 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khorfakkan's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Dibba Al Hisn's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Khorfakkan arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Khorfakkan conceded 1 against a 2.67 average — tighter than their form line. Dibba Al Hisn conceded 1 against a 3.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.