Hatta SC 1-3 Al-Ittihad Kalba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ittihad Kalba at 70%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hatta SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 18 as Hatta SC welcome Al-Ittihad Kalba to Hamdan Bin Rashid Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 April 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Hatta SC — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hatta SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Hamdan Bin Rashid Stadium, Hatta SC have gone 0W 1D 7L this season (8 games, 0.12 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.12 goals scored and 2.62 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 12% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad Kalba stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad Kalba away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Hatta SC at 0.50 PPG versus Al-Ittihad Kalba's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Hatta SC, 1 for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Oct 2023, ended 1–2 with Al-Ittihad Kalba winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Hatta SC in-play tendencies (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 12% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 56% of games.
Al-Ittihad Kalba in-play tendencies (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hatta SC 44% versus Al-Ittihad Kalba 75%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hatta SC 56% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatta SC 0.80 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatta SC attack 0.495 / defence 1.410 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.944 / defence 1.035. League average goals — home 1.563 / away 1.696. Hatta SC's attack strength of 0.495 is below the league average — the 0.80 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 16 Hatta SC games / 43 Al-Ittihad Kalba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hatta SC 11% | Draw 18% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 70%. Fair-value odds: Hatta SC 9.09 | Draw 5.56 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.43. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad Kalba (70%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad Kalba at 70% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates corroborate: Hatta SC 12% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatta SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Hamdan Bin Rashid Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Apr 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatta SC 11% | Draw 18% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 70% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 50% | xG Hatta SC 0.80 / Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.26 • Poisson strength factors: Hatta SC attack 0.495 / def 1.410 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.944 / def 1.035 | league avg home 1.563 / away 1.696 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad Kalba (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Hatta SC xG
Expected Goals
2.26
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
50%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hatta SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kick off?
Hatta SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Hamdan Bin Rashid Stadium.
What was the final score in Hatta SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Hatta SC 1 - 3 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Where is Hatta SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba being played?
The match is being played at Hamdan Bin Rashid Stadium.
What competition is Hatta SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba part of?
Hatta SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Hatta SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our statistical model gives Hatta SC a 11% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad Kalba a 70% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad Kalba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hatta SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Hatta SC and Al-Ittihad Kalba will score (BTTS).
Will Hatta SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hatta SC and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Record (1 meetings): Hatta SC 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 1W.
What form are Hatta SC and Al-Ittihad Kalba in?
Hatta SC (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Hatta SC's attack rating (0.49) and Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 0.80 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack versus Hatta SC's defence, projects 2.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.6%), 1-2 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad Kalba Win
11%
8.71
18%
5.44
70%
1.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
12.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Hatta SC xG
Total xG
3.06
2.26
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
8.71
11%
Home win
5.44
18%
Draw
1.43
70%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
10%
9.56
45%
2.23
Win to Nil
1%
83.31
32%
3.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 10.6 | 12.0 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 2.3 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 8.5 | 9.6 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 1.5 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatta SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Hatta SC and Al-Ittihad Kalba expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Hatta SC and 2.26 for Al-Ittihad Kalba, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatta SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hatta SC's recent record stands at 1W 2D 13L from 16 games, a 0.31 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Hatta SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad Kalba, meanwhile, have gone 3W 5D 8L across 16 games — 0.88 PPG, with D-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad Kalba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ittihad Kalba by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hatta SC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hatta SC have managed 0W 1D 7L from 8 games — 0.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's away record stands at 2W 2D 4L across 8 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad Kalba come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hatta SC are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 2.38 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad Kalba are on 1.44 scored and 1.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad Kalba in 75%.
Last 16 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatta SC
Blended
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hatta SC and Al-Ittihad Kalba in coming into this match?
Hatta SC have gone 1W 2D 13L in their last 16 games (0.31 PPG), while Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 3W 5D 8L in their last 16 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hatta SC at home or Al-Ittihad Kalba away?
Al-Ittihad Kalba's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hatta SC at home: 0.12 PPG; Al-Ittihad Kalba away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Hatta SC
0
Draws
2
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hatta SC and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
From 2 meetings on record, Hatta SC have won 0, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hatta SC and Al-Ittihad Kalba last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2024, when Hatta SC 1-3 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Who has won more matches between Hatta SC and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hatta SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Al-Ittihad Kalba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hatta SC 12%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Hatta SC and 75% for Al-Ittihad Kalba. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hatta SC have failed to score in 88% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatta SC home games / Al-Ittihad Kalba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hatta SC play Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 12% of Hatta SC's recent matches and 75% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hatta SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Hatta SC's matches and 75% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's.
Do Hatta SC and Al-Ittihad Kalba tend to score early?
Hatta SC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad Kalba in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ittihad Kalba cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Hatta SC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad Kalba beat Hatta SC 1-3 at Hamdan Bin Rashid Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatta SC 0.80 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.26 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatta SC attack 0.49 / defence 1.41 against Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.94 / defence 1.03, drawn from 16/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hatta SC 11% | Draw 18% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 70%, with Al-Ittihad Kalba to win its most likely call at 70%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatta SC 56%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hatta SC's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad Kalba arrived the stronger side — 0.88 PPG against 0.31. That form edge translated into the three points. Hatta SC (home/away splits) scored 1 against a 0.12 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.